packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Also, the ULL storms some are referencing were really strong, multiple contour, closed lows. This one will be dying a slow death. The question is how slow???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm wondering what the now recent snow cover will have on temps for tonight and tomorrow. Still below freezing at my house in Gwinnett. 3905.jpg I was about to propose this to see if it could lead to lower max temps than forecast. I'm @ 32 currently with about an inch on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CMC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CMC sticking to it's guns but looks better for WNC. Gives CLT areas .75 all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't know whether the NAVGEM is lucky or good but it's not deviated at all in the past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CMC sticking to it's guns but looks better for WNC. Gives CLT areas .75 all snow. YUP nice snows from BHM-ATL-GSP-CLT-RDU CLASSIC track, IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CMC... CMC sticking to it's guns but looks better for WNC. Gives CLT areas .75 all snow. Looks good fellas. I'm guessing the temps were ok for most with the southern track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The great things is there is still consensus from the models that there will be a high impact storm here. The question is just how high of an impact. 6 inches looks safe here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah...I guess we are getting greedy around RDU. A 1-3 inch snow is usually a big deal here. We want the big 6-7 incher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CMC looks pretty good...maybe a hair warmer...Looks like the GFS...bodes well from BHM to ATL to GSP to CLT and RDU almost identical to where the rain/snow line set up with todays system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The great things is there is still consensus from the models that there will be a high impact storm here. The question is just how high of an impact. 6 inches looks safe here.Maybe 3-6 is a better way to put it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The rap at 18 hours looks good. The trough is more positively tilted compared to the NAM and the RAP doesn't not have a closed contour associated with it, while the NAM does at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is when meteorology outweighs modelology... Having experience in this area gives you a lot of insider knowledge into what is actually going to happen.. That's why I'm going with more rain than snow for RDU. Rain to begin with, changing to some snow...1-2 inches. This is when meteorology outweighs modelology... Having experience in this area gives you a lot of insider knowledge into what is actually going to happen.. That's why I'm going with more rain than snow for RDU. Rain to begin with, changing to some snow...1-2 inches. Well two meteorologists on TWC, Chris Warren and Winter Weather Expert Tom Niziol, just said that through the Upstate of SC, right through Raleigh would most likely be in the heaviest snow swath of at least 3 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I was about to propose this to see if it could lead to lower max temps than forecast. I'm @ 32 currently with about an inch on the ground. yeah temps haven't budged at all here either..still 32 without much melting to speak of. Going to be tough making the lower 40s at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I was about to propose this to see if it could lead to lower max temps than forecast. I'm @ 32 currently with about an inch on the ground. Right now, I'm sitting at 10 degrees below the forecast high and just slightly below freezing. Don't see any real warming at this point. Seems the clouds are locked in already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 almost identical to where the rain/snow line set up with todays system. Well, that's not good for me at all....didn't see a flake. I did get a sleet shower at the end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Its basically a 1 degree error at 850, if thats wrong its all snow, thats how close it is. Aren't the 850 wetbulbs projected to be below 0C just before the precip starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CMC... Looks reasonable.....and I like the temps are below freezing at the height of the storm for the NC piedmont. I think it may be the coldest model though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah...I guess we are getting greedy around RDU. A 1-3 inch snow is usually a big deal here. We want the big 6-7 incher Talk about being greedy! I've become so spoiled by the big events of the past 4 weeks in eastern Masschusetts that I'm still hoping for a "12" spot somewhere in NC, east of the mountains. If there's any kind of model concensus suggesting the aforementioned may materialize, I will be traveling to that general location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wake will be the transition area for NC.. Almost always is.. NW Wake will get more than SE wake... A classic track based on historical data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Right now, I'm sitting at 10 degrees below the forecast high and just slightly below freezing. Don't see any real warming at this point. Seems the clouds are locked in already. Doubt I see 41 today. Light W wind tonight could mess with my temps, but either way, I think we'll have heavy enough precip tomorrow to cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WPC early model discussion from this morning (12z runs of NAM and GFS included so far in their eval):...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARPTROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AWAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WED WHICHWILL CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COASTTHROUGH THURS. THE 09Z SREF GUIDANCE AND 12Z NAM COLLECTIVELY ARETHE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THEGULF COAST STATES AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THEYARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE LOW TRACKS. DISSECTING THESREF GUIDANCE ITSELF...THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ARW AND NMMB MEMBERSWHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THEIRLOW TRACKS VERSUS THE NMM MEMBERS...AND SO THE FULL ENSEMBLE MEANAS A RESULT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BEING FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER.CONVERSELY...THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM ARE CLUSTEREDTOGETHER IN BEING MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER. THE 00Z ECMWF THOUGHIS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT. THE 00Z UKMET ISSOMEWHAT STRONGER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEMCAMP...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT OF THE SREF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORT THE FLATTER GFS/ECMWF LEDCAMP. BASED ON THE SPREAD AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...WILL LEAN TOWARDA BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The UKMET looks about the same. Ends up with yet another 998 mb LP over Hatteras in basically an identical position to the past 2+ runs after traveling through SE GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sun should come out tomorrow over piedmont NC to warm things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WxSouth just posted the Euro and GFS are always missing the boat on the smaller cutoffs like this, and the NAM and short range models are the best to catch this setup. Mentioned the RGEM clobbers north Atlanta through Charlotte and up to Raleigh. 4 to 8 in that zone common, and some may get 10. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well, hell ... looks like every model pushes 850s above 32 degrees for a good bit of the show in FAY on Wed. night. Another round of models like that and we're washed away. Unless, of course, the low DOES manage to pack its own coolant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The Georgia map--March 1, 2009 storm. Had nothing in Alpharetta with 3" or so in central Gwinnett. Rough storm, and it was insane that we had literally nothing (a quick-melting dusting) while 10 miles east they got slammed. I hope there isn't a similar gradient with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah...I guess we are getting greedy around RDU. A 1-3 inch snow is usually a big deal here. We want the big 6-7 incher We are getting a couple of inches today from a system that isn't even that big and has light precip and rates. We are going to get more than a couple of inches from the storm tomorrow. It is a much bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The UKMET looks about the same. Ends up with yet another 998 mb LP over Hatteras in basically an identical position to the past 2+ runs after traveling through SE GA. UK is mixy for RDU, verbatim. Good front end, then mix, then flip back to snow. I will take it, got to toe that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Had nothing in Alpharetta with 3" or so in central Gwinnett. Rough storm, and it was insane that we had literally nothing (a quick-melting dusting) while 10 miles east they got slammed. I hope there isn't a similar gradient with this storm. Received 5" on the campus of Auburn University that day from the same storm. On the day before, there were tornadoes and temps up into the upper 70's. One of the most dynamic storms I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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