Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z NAM says ATL to CLT shouldn't sleep on Tues. morning threat. Coming in wetter. This will probably need to be watched. The earlier runs look like the cold air filters in during the last half of the storm. Are you seeing that or am I not looking at it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Lots of precip doing the upslope dance and making it into WNC with isothermal layer in place Tuesday on 12z NAM. Could be a very interesting day for a lot of us. But then again, it is the NAM and had me getting 4 inches of snow yesterday at the same time frame and I never saw a flakes, so take it with a grain of salt lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'm willing to bet almost anything the NAM is going to look really good at the end of it's run. Already looks like the energy out west is better oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 09z SHREF is really wet for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'm willing to bet almost anything the NAM is going to look really good at the end of it's run. Already looks like the energy out west is better oriented. Ha, was just about to post that. More separation, more upstream ridging ahead of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Ha, was just about to post that. More separation, more upstream ridging ahead of the ULL. Every time I post that though it usually goes to crap...haha but man it's looking like it's screaming WOOF for later this week...wish it was 24 hours on the NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 @66 ULL has opened up and is taking on a more neutral tilt...not there yet but this thing looks like it might be setting up for the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Every time I post that though it usually goes to crap...haha but man it's looking like it's screaming WOOF for later this week...wish it was 24 hours on the NAM lol. I ran a trend on the 500mb vort maps and you can see on this run it's sacrificing much less energy to shear. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I ran a trend on the 500mb vort maps and you can see on this run it's sacrificing much less energy to shear. Good trends. I fully expect you to bust out a trade mark saying on this run. @72 it's looking ripe for a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 I fully expect you to bust out a trade mark saying on this run. @72 it's looking ripe for a big dog. LOL might have to. Yeah 72 looks awesome. Similar to yesterday's 6z run (in dgex). The more neutral tilt this storm can attain, the more energy it's going to keep.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Oh lawdy, this run is giving me the vapers....about the perfect setup @81......the dog is on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 LOL might have to. Yeah 72 looks awesome. Similar to yesterday's 6z run (in dgex) I've never wanted the NAM to be right more than now. Good god, that 5h look. If that played out like that tons on the board would be crushed....especially parts of AL and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 GOM low popping @78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 My concern is that in the GSP discussion, they mention like 2-3 cold fronts coming through, one being a backdoor wedge , between today and Wednesday . Are we relying on these coming through and timing it right, to get anything wintry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 nice to see something just 24 to 36 hours out and potentially could be more. hell it looks like another inch of rain plus here tonight when just 2 days ago there was nothing progged. the next system looks incredible. dry mid levels mean that 850mb temps will cool via evap and dynamical cooling. nam is dropping surface temps to freezing underneath that band of heavy snow too. 2 to 4 inches tomorrow night/tue morning and a big one on it's tails? too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 A thing of beauty @84 ATL getting hammered and everything looks to be turning the corner. Daddy like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 My concern is that in the GSP discussion, they mention like 2-3 cold fronts coming through, one being a backdoor wedge , between today and Wednesday . Are we relying on these coming through and timing it right, to get anything wintry? We're relying on a relatively small scale feature to maintain itself as it swings around the polar jet. Models will have a difficult time coming into full agreement with it until we're within 48 hrs I'd wager. I think the higher resolution models will get it first. (NAM, SREF, RGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Oh lawdy, this run is giving me the vapers....about the perfect setup @81......the dog is on the grass. what does that even mean? have you slept burger? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GA is getting NAM'd.....take with a massive mountain of salt of course but the SREF is seeing it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 A thing of beauty @84 ATL getting hammered and everything looks to be turning the corner. Daddy like. Oh yeah, yesterday's dgex fantasy storm has officially made it to the NAM. lol edit: nearly there I'll amend. doesn't cut it off at 84 like the dgex did but looking at the 500 vort maps, it's close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 what does that even mean? have you slept burger? lol You never heard the southern expression of getting the vapors? It's when you get light headed from hysteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GA is getting NAM'd.....take with a massive mountain of salt of course but the SREF is seeing it too. doesn't the long range nam suck though ? I would be shocked if I ended up getting half a foot of snow like this shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I appreciate everyone being more specific with locations and dates since there are so many events/threats. What is RDU looking like this week? Looks like a chance of cold chasing moisture for Monday... and then something later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You never heard the southern expression of getting the vapors? It's when you get light headed from hysteria. I guess there's a first for everything. I followed you somewhat though. haha. Thanks for the continued PBP's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GA is getting NAM'd.....take with a massive mountain of salt of course but the SREF is seeing it too. and it would still be snowing pretty hard at 84. Besides the fact this is the fantasy 84 hour nam which is about as reliable as flipping a coin, the fact it's so cold is interesting since the runs of the euro that had the system this far north kept 0c 850s well north of this run of the nam. There is a very fine needle to thread here since if it trends very much north at all, it's likely all rain outside the mountains..except in nc where there is more wiggle room. personally, i'm much more interested in tomorrow nights/tue system since it's not in the fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Oh yeah, yesterday's dgex fantasy storm has officially made it to the NAM. lol edit: nearly there I'll amend. doesn't cut it off at 84 like the dgex did but looking at the 500 vort maps, it's close! I love love love that look. No matter what precip shield is almost always further north in that scenario....and then it appeared it would be turning the corner. Hopefully the GFS and Euro follow it today. Always sucks when you're getting excited about 84 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 and it would still be snowing pretty hard at 84. Besides the fact this is the fantasy 84 hour nan which is about as reliable as flipping a coin, the fact it's so cold is interesting since the runs of the euro that had the system this far north kept 0c 850s well north of this run of the nam. There is a very fine needle to thread here since if it trends very much north at all, it's likely all rain outside the mountains..except in nc where there is more wiggle room. Yea 84 hour NAM is like relying on your always drunk Uncle to pick you up from school. It also always has the tendency to over amplify everything. At 5h the vort coming over is so dynamic it should force a lot of cold air in. It seems to be one step away from closing off the entire time it goes across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 THe euro was really close to a hit for NC on Thursday morning. A large swath of precip slides just south of us. Now that this looks like a legit s/w /w the timing, the only thing preventing this from being a big snowstorm is the 500mb low sitting over New England. That is blunting this storm from turning the corner. If that is able to trend a little quicker, that HP over the Dakotas slides down and the trough axis allowed to get a little more neutral/negative. This one should be interesting to track. The EURO was actually showing cold enough upper levels for snow in ATL for this one, however the sfc is too warm. Areas on the northern cusp would be snow as is (north of AHN to CAE) although still slightly above 0c at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 doesn't the long range nam suck though ? I would be shocked if I ended up getting half a foot of snow like this shows. No one said you were going to get 6". Like Burger said, take it with a truckload of salt. People forget that the models have shown great hits between 84hr-120hr on all the LR models on to have the threat lost. IMO I want them showing potential at this point but there is no way in hell I want to be in the bullseye at this point in time. Things have trended N or NW on the past few systems, remember how everyone was worried about a suppressed storm not providing enough precip for Monday two Fridays ago? Then we ended up getting a warm nose that kept us icy. We went from worrying about precip, to worrying about cold air in like 24 hours. I say all that to say that I like where we sit atm. No snow threat that was showing in the 3-4 day timeframe has panned out this winter, so I think the positioning of the LP now is in a good spot to trend towards a SE snowstorm over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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