LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Warmer trends this far out are almost never wrong- I am almost 100% sure now all of the ITP folks in Atlanta get basically nothing while Kennesaw-Alpharetta-Gainesville get nailed. I think that's exactly where the bulleye's is going to set up. Someone in the Northern 1/4 of GA is going to get demolished. It's going to be a game of have and have-nots. The haves will have insanely high totals and the have nots will have little to nothing. If I were in the northern suburbs of Atlanta, I'd be very confident and excited...generally an area from just North of Dunwoody up to maybe Dawsonville, then eastward towards Gainesville. If I were in that area, I'd put all my chips on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Warmer trends this far out are almost never wrong- I am almost 100% sure now all of the ITP folks in Atlanta get basically nothing while Kennesaw-Alpharetta-Gainesville get nailed. I am north of the Perimeter by about 100 yards....next to Perimeter Mall...sounds like im on top of the fence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS coming in much warmer. You have nothing to worry about since there isn't any model agreement that a storm is even coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Steve - I wouldn't think it would have too big of an impact in 24 to 36 hrs., but hey, every little bit helps. Looks like you and I may be in the real sweet spot for this one unless something disastrous happens, but we're in the range where model noise may be more likely than major shifts. That being said, we are in Atlanta, so we should probably wait until it's falling to get excited. Gotta love the RGEM....it's consistently held on the the bullseye all over the areas to the NE of the perimeter. - Buck No, I wouldn't either, but when you're sitting on the fence, every degree matters! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Brad agreed pretty much 100% with what I've been saying. Someone in a narrow band will get some nice snow... but someone is going to get some rain. I'm not liking the NW trends for Wake. All I'm sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The cutoff in GA on the RGEM is brutal. You have a 12" jackpot and 20 miles south gets shut out. Crazy. Atlanta zoom available in the model center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I am north of the Perimeter by about 100 yards....next to Perimeter Mall...sounds like im on top of the fence I expect your location to do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Atlanta zoom available in the model center. That is absolutely ridiculous, does anyone know if that sort of gradient has ever setup before there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I still think this is an I-20 special. I will go down in flames if not. IF** The CMC and doc come in with the heavier north of the city I will adjust the map with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow, look at that RGEM map and how the cutoff just dices Atlanta in half....that's tough if you live in the southern areas if that were to verify. Just look at Gwinnett county.......nothing to 10 or more inches.....that would actually be pretty cool to see driving from Braselton to Loganville....unbelievable gradient. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SERF has MWK mean @ 9.10 7 members are above a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The towel is in hand and ready to throw. The cut off from eastern Atlanta east and south towards I-20 in depressing. Good luck to those who get some. Hopefully the models are off on the thermal profiles. Colder we pray. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Warmer trends this far out are almost never wrong- I am almost 100% sure now all of the ITP folks in Atlanta get basically nothing while Kennesaw-Alpharetta-Gainesville get nailed. i don't know if i agree totally with that. Yes trends are concerning..but it's one model run. Not 3 or 4 in a row. Plus just recently they were wrong with warming. The warming trend they showed with the last ice storm totally busted and they there was a warming trend on some of the models with respect to last nights/this mornings system and they were a bit too warm as well in some areas. Of course this is a totally different animal but i'm not sure what has changed so much in 12 hours since last night they were trending the other way. There's no reason to believe it won't again yet. I know for many 25 miles will make all the difference in the world but such tiny deviations are going to be a given from one run to the next. If it continues on the 18z and 0z runs then it's believable but i think folks are stressing themselves out a bit too much based on one set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't know how I would feel if that RGEM solution actually verified. It would be truly disheartening. It may actually encourage me to move out of Atlanta soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is absolutely ridiculous, does anyone know if that sort of gradient has ever setup before there? ULL's have been known to do that. In March 2009 I believe there was gradient like that for many wasn't there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 i don't know if i agree totally with that. Yes trends are concerning..but it's one model run. Not 3 or 4 in a row. Plus just recently they were wrong with warming. The warming trend they showed with the last ice storm totally busted and they there was a warming trend on some of the models with respect to last nights/this mornings system and they were a bit too warm as well in some areas. Of course this is a totally different animal but i'm not sure what has changed so much in 12 hours since last night they were trending the other way. There's no reason to believe it won't again yet. I know for many 25 miles will make all the difference in the world but such tiny deviations are going to be a given from one run to the next. If it continues on the 18z and 0z runs then it's believable but i think folks are stressing themselves out a bit too much based on one set of model runs. Its basically a 1 degree error at 850, if thats wrong its all snow, thats how close it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That is absolutely ridiculous, does anyone know if that sort of gradient has ever setup before there? I've seen cutoffs like that with a lot of the storms we get, but not that sharp since there's usually a pretty healthy band of mixed precip that can cut down on accumulations but cause a more "gentle" gradient with these type of storms. If this turns out to be a definite rain or snow event, there will be some disappointed kids (and adults!) on Thursday morning. It would be kind of funny seeing how Fulton county would have to close schools while in the southern half of the county you could have zero snow and sun breaking out later in the day. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looking forward to seeing Greg (or whoever) take on it on the noon news.. Usually very conservative. I'm sure he will mention the possibility of it going either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ULL's have been known to do that. In March 2009 I believe there was gradient like that for many wasn't there? You could say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WxSouth just posted the Euro and GFS are always missing the boat on the smaller cutoffs like this, and the NAM and short range models are the best to catch this setup. Mentioned the RGEM clobbers north Atlanta through Charlotte and up to Raleigh. 4 to 8 in that zone common, and some may get 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Its basically a 1 degree error at 850, if thats wrong its all snow, thats how close it is. I agree! and why is everyone talking about an ULL?? this isn't even close to it by the time it gets here....the NAM is in la la land with that. GFS isn't closed, GEM or euro from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I expect your location to do very well. Hoping so....crazy how northern fulton county could see a foot and southern fulton gets nothing....that is nutso...has to be a cutoff somewhere I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 ULL's have been known to do that. In March 2009 I believe there was gradient like that for many wasn't there? The Georgia map--March 1, 2009 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Don't forget that there are two types of temperatures in play, surface and aloft. Each model has its own biases. Usually when a storm approaches, the models will trend cooler at the surface, but warmer aloft which greatly effects the rain/snow line. The nam and other short term models do relatively well with temperature profiles aloft (never underestimate a warm layer). Seems like the GFS does well with surface temps? I thought I would throw that out as food for thought and discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Still any hope of this system toting its own cold air along as it arrives? That would squash a lot of the 850 mb temp worry in its track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SERF has MWK mean @ 9.10 7 members are above a foot! SERF, is that a new model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Its basically a 1 degree error at 850, if thats wrong its all snow, thats how close it is. Yep but that is par for the course around these parts. It's never simple or easy and normally comes down to 1 degree more times that i care to remember. But because the margin of error is so razor thin, it's unwise to flip out over one set of model runs or proclaim any sort of trend so quickly. These models are not going to be accurate to within one degree every single time they run..it's why you watch for trends over the course of several model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 SERF, is that a new model? Nope short range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 People are quoting the 2009 Bowling Ball ULL event, but the difference is that the gradient shown on the RGEM would be literally trace to 12 inches in 15-20 miles. The 2009 event was maybe 1-2 inches to 4-6 inches 10-15 miles away. Not even close to the same magnitude. Maybe in NC, but not GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 CMC looks pretty good...maybe a hair warmer...Looks like the GFS...bodes well from BHM to ATL to GSP to CLT and RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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