PackGrad05 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREF map above includes today Folks have to realize that a lot of the cumulative snowfall maps include today. so trim 1-2 inches off it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thanks. The 4-8" band I guess is +/- miles either way . Here is his map as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisr4419 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wyff map is for wed night only. Does not include today. Fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 They aren't the only ones. I watched channel 11 once or twice this morning and couldn't believe what i was seeing and hearing. They too were showing their stupid rpm model...and all it showed was rain south and east of town while being completely dry north and west of town. So if you live in gainesville, taking the dude on 11 as truth, it's going to be dry and cloudy the rest of the week. Unreal. I realize it's pointless to get frustrated over the stupidity of these local stations and their garbage but considering this is a high impact event, almost record setting for some areas, it's down right shameful they show that..especially since they act like what they are showing is exactly how it is going to play out..despite what we know the other modeling is showing. You are right, this wont' be FFC's fault if people are caught off guard..this is all the local media's fault. I will say that at least on channel 5, the lady there said this one will probably end up being a much bigger deal than today. I noticed this as well today with 11Alive. Do we know what components make up the RPM, or is it strictly proprietary with no trade secret leaks? Just wonder where it sources its raw data? Jennifer Valdez today (meeeeeowww) showed an animated graphic measuring 3" at Hartsfield-Jackson this AM. with amounts of 3-5" north of the perimeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 still trending west/ slower but the tilt is the same Yeah, your right, at 27 hours it looked a hair weaker, but now at 36 it looks the same as the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The ULL is still closed at hr 33. Tilt is roughly the same, but the surface low is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 They aren't the only ones. I watched channel 11 once or twice this morning and couldn't believe what i was seeing and hearing. They too were showing their stupid rpm model...and all it showed was rain south and east of town while being completely dry north and west of town. So if you live in gainesville, taking the dude on 11 as truth, it's going to be dry and cloudy the rest of the week. Unreal. I realize it's pointless to get frustrated over the stupidity of these local stations and their garbage but considering this is a high impact event, almost record setting for some areas, it's down right shameful they show that..especially since they act like what they are showing is exactly how it is going to play out..despite what we know the other modeling is showing. You are right, this wont' be FFC's fault if people are caught off guard..this is all the local media's fault. I will say that at least on channel 5, the lady there said this one will probably end up being a much bigger deal than today. I just watched WSB for a few minutes to see, and Minton did show a few homemade call maps for tomorrow afternoon starting at 3pm and progressing to 5 and later. There was some rain in the 5pm map but it was in south ATL. All of north metro was covered by frozen mix, switching to snow in later hours. If she committed any sin there it was just that she didn't specifically SAY that the commute tomorrow night will probably be impacted. But in fairness right now their reporting is focused on what's happening this morning. They still have 24 hours to talk about being off the roads late tomorrow. FFC is doing a very fine job with issuances this winter, IMHO. The key is getting them out during the day before the event so word has time to spread before people go to sleep for the night, and they have absolutely been doing that this winter. It's good. (Side question, how do these little stations have the money to develop all their little "in house models"? o.O) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is his map as well. I'd assume that CJ's map isn't meaning to literally show up to 4" into the KCAE area. Most likely the western zone from Greenwood over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I am hugging the NAM/SREF so hard. (Which probably isn't the worst combo) SREF plumes (not counting today, because they blew it and said 0" for the mean) giving me 9.28" for the Thursday system. Just wait, Roanoke. You'll be in the bullseye by this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The ULL is still closed at hr 33. Tilt is roughly the same, but the surface low is stronger. Yeah, I think we are splitting hairs with the timing on this. I don't think it's going to be NW of the 6z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah, I think we are splitting hairs with the timing on this. I don't think it's going to be NW of the 6z run though. the low position may not but I think the precip will be further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The NAM at 36 hours has the SLP tracking over the pan handle, that's a good track and the NAM does have some skill at this range. I don't think it's going to shift 100 miles south of this in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is my first call, pre 12z guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 the low position may not but I think the precip will be further north Comparing hour 36 to hour 42 of the 6z it looks almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 And we all see what's being spit out by the models. And FFC has put the metro counties on watch. So if WSB is actually telling people it isn't going to snow in north ATL tomorrow, they're putting people in a bad position. That's how Snowmageddon happened, general public didn't understand what was coming. (I don't know if WSB is truly saying this or not, I don't watch or listen to their outlets.) The cool thing is that the NWS uses the alert system to cell phones and such now. So even in the face of crap reporting, hopefully when the warning goes out (and it eventually will), people get the news. I don't hardly ever watch ATL news but I did today because I commute to N Cherokee Cty. The guy (McNeal?) on NBC said his model showed all rain until the wee hours of Thursday morning and then only the mountains would see accumulating snowfall. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The NAM at 36 hours has the SLP tracking over the pan handle, that's a good track and the NAM does have some skill at this range. I don't think it's going to shift 100 miles south of this in the next 36 hours. I haven't looked at anything except 5h and the SLP but really the NAM looks to be the same as 6z more or less. Should be a good run for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I noticed this as well today with 11Alive. Do we know what components make up the RPM, or is it strictly proprietary with no trade secret leaks? Just wonder where it sources its raw data? Jennifer Valdez today (meeeeeowww) showed an animated graphic measuring 3" at Hartsfield-Jackson this AM. with amounts of 3-5" north of the perimeter. The RPM family of models were considered just OK when I started following this stuff about 10 years ago. I have no idea if they've been keeping up with the times since then, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't hardly ever watch ATL news but I did today because I commute to N Cherokee Cty. The guy (McNeal?) on NBC said his model showed all rain until the wee hours of Thursday morning and then only the mountains would see accumulating snowfall. Just wow. Ol' Chester...yeah...Really made no sense at all based on what FFC has said and also what numerous other model suites have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think the upstate of sc has a good chance of seeing thunder snow Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM is warm for north GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 9z SERF for Mt. Airy is 7.71 up about 2 inches from last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lookout, I hate the models the TV mets use. They really are a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM is insistent on little to no snow for the Atlanta area...it's a little worrying honestly...would not be surprised if it's right given how this winter has shaped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think the upstate of sc has a good chance of seeing thunder snow Wednesday night. And that's based off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 While I'd say "well, the NAM is horrible with temps"... this time around it REALLY WARMS it up aside from NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 KSPA SREF mean is down about 2.5" from 3z. 5.67" minus today's snow. Still quite a few big dogs in there. The biggest thing I notice is a big spike in the rain probabilities at the start of the storm. Hoping that is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM is warm for north GA NAM even warms up a lot of NC. I don't love seeing this look after the SREF came in with a lot of warm members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Only 1.5-1.75" QPF on the NAM for RDU...meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM crushes RDU. Looks like near 1.25 qpf. 850s look to stay south of Raleigh: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Edit: ^^^^for what Pack just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 While I'd say "well, the NAM is horrible with temps"... this time around it REALLY WARMS it up aside from NC. Yeah if the NAM is right, we are playing with fire in the upstate. Have a feeling it isn't right with its temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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