Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hopefully, that's just a bias coming into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 My guess is the SREF is amping up the ULL and not seeing the cold air associated with it...could also be getting the track wrong. I don't think the ULL will plow to far north into SC/NC...it should follow along the cold air. Anyone on the northwest side is going to get crushed bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I wouldn't get too carried away yet, unless we start seeing drastic changes in other modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As most of you know, the SREF stands for (Short Range Ensemble forecast) it is a blend of about 15 different WRF based higher resolution models. Therefore the mean is the average of those. So the warm ones will certainly cut down on snow totals even if you have some big dogs. Obviously the NAM and SREF members are amping much more. Probably too much. If you look at RDU during the storm Wed night, Thursday, the ptop probs still favore snow over any precip type, so that tells me a majority of the models are still probably snowier than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 anyone who wished themselves into thinking this was going to be an all snow event with no hiccups for this area must not have lived here for long. Hop on and enjoy the ride. The next 48 hours is gonna be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The only thing we should be reading from the SREF is that it's not trending more SE, it's always to amped at this range. The SREF's are more useless than the NAM for specifics. I remember for last weeks storm everyone flipped out when the SREF mean was tracking into KY/OH. I think the GFS/Euro tick NW. If the RGEM shows this then I will be worried. 2m's are going to be an issue though, but we have had plenty of winter storms storms where temps start at 40F and drop to 30F once snow is cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Roanoke is close to 10" on the SREF mean. And you laughed at the notion of a Roanoke jackpot? Shocker! lol. That run of the SREF crushes the Triad. I wonder if it's too far North with the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nice disco fron RAH. I am about 20 minutes to the west of 64. Maybe I will still do okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This could assist with more snow vs rain in the I-85 area as stated by GSP in the latest . That forecast was a dream-crusher. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here's the NWS forecast issued 10z and 13z....NWS running with lower totals immediately, the higher forecast only lasted 3 hours. 10z Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Our SREF mean in GSO dropped from 5.50 to 5.27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Huh, BMX appears to be thinking more south than any of their surrounding offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 My guess is the SREF is amping up the ULL and not seeing the cold air associated with it...could also be getting the track wrong. I don't think the ULL will plow to far north into SC/NC...it should follow along the cold air. Anyone on the northwest side is going to get crushed bottom line. Indeed. You hope to be close to that line, but not TOO close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here's the NWS forecast issued 10z and 13z....NWS running with lower totals immediately, the higher forecast only lasted 3 hours. 10z Latest Still between 5 and 6 inches. That would still be a big impact event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Indeed it was for some. Got to watch the trends and only pay attention to local area folks now. But got to love the wording about 12 hour warning possible being met. That forecast was a dream-crusher. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here's the NWS forecast issued 10z and 13z....NWS running with lower totals immediately, the higher forecast only lasted 3 hours. 10z Latest That's not much change at all, boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Great, now it does a complete 360. A 360 would mean that it would stay where it is at. Do you mean a 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Odd how the heaviest snow axis in Alabama literally stops at the state line on the latest NWS forecast. You would think that dark blue area would continue, but it literally stops at the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That's not much change at all, boss. Thanks, boss. Yes, I stand corrected...it was just accounting for what has already fallen today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WSB in house model shows zero snow for city of Atlanta. Not sure where they pull from but Minton just mostly a rainstorm, kind of a dangerous call I think right now. I just turned on the tv to see what WSB was saying. Minton showed a series of rough maps for tomorrow afternoon that clearly showed a frozen mix falling in the north ATL metro counties (Cobb, North Fulton, Gwinnett, etc.) by 5pm. I'm not sure where you got the impression she was calling it a rain only event for ATL. I mean her map did show rain, but that rain was generally south of I-20 at 5pm, which I don't think anyone here would argue vehemently against right now. Anyway. Smart people need to get off the roads in N ATL tomorrow by midafternoon. Hopefully that gets communicated really well as today and tomorrow progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Odd how the heaviest snow axis in Alabama literally stops at the state line on the latest NWS forecast. You would think that dark blue area would continue, but it literally stops at the line. It's where the Birmingham office's forecast area ends. FFC isn't buying whatever BMX is seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 From Chris Justus at WYFF: HIGH IMPACT SNOW STORM TOMORROW NIGHT: PLEASE SHARE! Today's storm is just a teaser of what's to come tomorrow. With this arriving at night, temperatures won't be a question in the Upstate of SC, WNC and NE. Georgia. It all starts between 5pm-7pm tomorrow evening and ends shortly after midnight. I'm expecting the entire region to see at least 2 inches. Along and north of I-85 and south of I-40 will see the heaviest snow, you can find 4-8 inches of accumulation here. There will be pieces of upper level energy, vort maxes as we call them move through during the storm that could increase snow totals. Like the summer time, the totals will vary from town to town. Some could see a little less, some a little more. Someone will see 10+ inches in some of these heavier bands. Let me know what you think! Confidence now at 70%. -Chris Justus, Meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here's a question with today's system already being more North then what the models were showing at least as far as north central North Carolina is concerned. Could it also mean the bigger system tomorrow night might also potentially follow the same path and be further north then what the GFS is showing and closer to what the actual NAM is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thanks for adding Chris's thoughts. He did a good job last week also. From Chris Justus at WYFF:HIGH IMPACT SNOW STORM TOMORROW NIGHT: PLEASE SHARE! Today's storm is just a teaser of what's to come tomorrow. With this arriving at night, temperatures won't be a question in the Upstate of SC, WNC and NE. Georgia. It all starts between 5pm-7pm tomorrow evening and ends shortly after midnight. I'm expecting the entire region to see at least 2 inches. Along and north of I-85 and south of I-40 will see the heaviest snow, you can find 4-8 inches of accumulation here. There will be pieces of upper level energy, vort maxes as we call them move through during the storm that could increase snow totals. Like the summer time, the totals will vary from town to town. Some could see a little less, some a little more. Someone will see 10+ inches in some of these heavier bands. Let me know what you think! Confidence now at 70%. -Chris Justus, Meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 And we all see what's being spit out by the models. And FFC has put the metro counties on watch. So if WSB is actually telling people it isn't going to snow in north ATL tomorrow, they're putting people in a bad position. That's how Snowmageddon happened, general public didn't understand what was coming. (I don't know if WSB is truly saying this or not, I don't watch or listen to their outlets.) The cool thing is that the NWS uses the alert system to cell phones and such now. So even in the face of crap reporting, hopefully when the warning goes out (and it eventually will), people get the news. They aren't the only ones. I watched channel 11 once or twice this morning and couldn't believe what i was seeing and hearing. They too were showing their stupid rpm model...and all it showed was rain south and east of town while being completely dry north and west of town. So if you live in gainesville, taking the dude on 11 as truth, it's going to be dry and cloudy the rest of the week. Unreal. I realize it's pointless to get frustrated over the stupidity of these local stations and their garbage but considering this is a high impact event, almost record setting for some areas, it's down right shameful they show that..especially since they act like what they are showing is exactly how it is going to play out..despite what we know the other modeling is showing. You are right, this wont' be FFC's fault if people are caught off guard..this is all the local media's fault. I will say that at least on channel 5, the lady there said this one will probably end up being a much bigger deal than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not surprising the 12km NAM is a hair weaker and not as neutral/negatively tilted at 30 hours. Edit: Still relatively strong though, at 31 hours it's closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 9z sref mean snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not surprising the 12km NAM is a hair weaker and not as neutral/negatively tilted at 30 hours. Edit: Still relatively strong though, at 31 hours it's closed off. It's still pretty close to neutral at 30h. Really this is exactly what I expected to see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not surprising the 12km NAM is a hair weaker and not as neutral/negatively tilted at 30 hours. Edit: Still relatively strong though, at 31 hours it's closed off. still trending west/ slower but the tilt is the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thanks for adding Chris's thoughts. He did a good job last week also. Here is his map as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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