burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yay for inflight Wifi....SREF has a strong storm signal at the end of the 9z run. Might be able to reel this one back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yay for inflight Wifi....SREF has a strong storm signal at the end of the 9z run. Might be able to reel this one back in. it sure does lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 06z gfs looked wetter again for the monday event for central/eastern nc. and it is great to see the sref on board with the tues storm. people need to keep in mind our storm last week started trending northwest sat afternoon/night and that event started on a tuesday. this one isnt until weds/thurs and there is PLENTY of time for it to tick NW just as almost all storms have done this year. i think burger is right...that we will see some models tick north tonight. patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 06z gfs looked wetter again for the monday event for central/eastern nc. and it is great to see the sref on board with the tues storm. people need to keep in mind our storm last week started trending northwest sat afternoon/night and that event started on a tuesday. this one isnt until weds/thurs and there is PLENTY of time for it to tick NW just as almost all storms have done this year. i think burger is right...that we will see some models tick north tonight. patience. Yep, but I am sure this will trend worse for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yay for inflight Wifi....SREF has a strong storm signal at the end of the 9z run. Might be able to reel this one back in. Yes, it's still there. Several the GEFS ensemble panels have a big storm, plus the 6z NAM looked great at 500mb keeping the energy intact with a near neutral tilt (not considering what the dgex does with it thereafter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 06z gfs looked wetter again for the monday event for central/eastern nc. and it is great to see the sref on board with the tues storm. people need to keep in mind our storm last week started trending northwest sat afternoon/night and that event started on a tuesday. this one isnt until weds/thurs and there is PLENTY of time for it to tick NW just as almost all storms have done this year. i think burger is right...that we will see some models tick north tonight. patience. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I don't think I've seen so many 1040 highs on a map as I do on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Matthew East posted on facebook this morning about how complicated it will be to forecast this week with so much energy around. He said people could have multiple chanced for wintry precip or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Matthew East posted on facebook this morning about how complicated it will be to forecast this week with so much energy around. He said people could have multiple chanced for wintry precip or nothing at all.it's fairly obvious what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 it's fairly obvious what will happen. Haha what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So it might precipitate lightly tomorrow/Tuesday, and then we go a week of completely dry. Yeah ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Haha what?cold rain or cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 06z gfs looked wetter again for the monday event for central/eastern nc. and it is great to see the sref on board with the tues storm. people need to keep in mind our storm last week started trending northwest sat afternoon/night and that event started on a tuesday. this one isnt until weds/thurs and there is PLENTY of time for it to tick NW just as almost all storms have done this year. i think burger is right...that we will see some models tick north tonight. patience. I hope we start seeing the models converge on a north trend today. I know that has been the pattern with the models this winter, but we need to start seeing it soon for the midweek storm. We are only 3 days out now. If it is going to happen, it should start today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 fwiw the 12Z is further north with precip and stronger at HR24 for Mon/Tues. sounds like a broken record lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yep, but I am sure this will trend worse for us...need this to trend more west to help out the mtn. folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So it might precipitate lightly tomorrow/Tuesday, and then we go a week of completely dry. Yeah ok. That's what the models have been showing for 2days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well not surprising but the NAM's both are well south with the precip for tomorrow when compared to the 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 WPC Day 4 @ 6z & 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I go to GSP's forecast page this morning and see them say there is a consensus for a Miller A Wednesday night and potential Saturday http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=sc&prodtype=discussion I log on the board here expecting excitement this morning but instead it's like cutting into Cousin Catherine's turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's what the models have been showing for 2days now. You're right. For the last two days, every model has shown cold and dry for the entire coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's what the models have been showing for 2days now. Still waiting for your breakdown of the models....considering you are now in the model thread it might be wise to actually give some facts to back up what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Still waiting for your breakdown of the models....considering you are now in the model thread it might be wise to actually give some facts to back up what you're saying. I dont have the time nor do I want to take the time. But you know the models have not been in agreement on any winter storm for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Haha what?Something in the middle of the current solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z NAM says ATL to CLT shouldn't sleep on Tues. morning threat. Coming in wetter. This will probably need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I go to GSP's forecast page this morning and see them say there is a consensus for a Miller A Wednesday night and potential Saturday http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=sc&prodtype=discussion I log on the board here expecting excitement this morning but instead it's like cutting into Cousin Catherine's turkey yep but they're saying for the southern piedmont and foothills, I need this miller A to come nw to include the western part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Still waiting for your breakdown of the models....considering you are now in the model thread it might be wise to actually give some facts to back up what you're saying. He won't. There is no data to back up the claim that the models have shown no winter storms for the last two days. Some have and some haven't, and everybody that has looked knows that. The fact is, there are absolutely opportunities this week. There are also plenty of question marks, as there always are in the SE. Being able to see all of the models show a big winter storm 7 days out and maintain that all the way in is just not the norm this winter. But most of us know that. There will be changes. In fact, if I had to choose, I'd pick cold rain outside the mountains over completely dry. But by the end of the week, some portion of the SE is going to have had some frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Descent clip of snow for northern GA out to 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Something in the middle of the current solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z NAM says ATL to CLT shouldn't sleep on Tues. morning threat. Coming in wetter. This will probably need to be watched. Kinda jives with the Euro, but with more QPF. Tuesday really need to be watched for N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 CAE looks good for an inch @51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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