strongwxnc Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 yeah, the mean went up to 11 1/2 here but that includes about 3 inches for the current storm.Today mean for me was .5... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is crazy. Looks like we could get more snow today than we thought yesterday, and who knows what will happen Wednesday. NAM sticks to its guns, GFS and Euro go a little south, but their ensembles look better for here. WPC calling for a Euro and UK blend and a good hit here. Just seems like it is still up in the air. Good thing is there are still two storms on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Latest discussion from RNK .... .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 430 AM EST TUESDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR REGIONFROM A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE SURFACE LOWWILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THENOFF THE COAST THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHERNPERIPHERY OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM...GFSAND ECMWF KEEP QPF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNTS AND NORTHERN EXTENTOF QPF ARE NOTED ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. USED A BLEND OF GFS ANDECMWF FOR POPS AND FEEL THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEAFTER 06Z. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHCAROLINA. ANOTHER TIGHT GRADIENT SNOWFALL EXPECT...BEING ON THENORTHERN EDGE OF SNOW...TOTALS FROM ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 4INCH POSSIBLE IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WATAGUA COUNTY. WITH IT BEING4TH PERIOD WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES TO WORK OUT DETAILS ONSNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO ON SNOW POTENTIAL.THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...THENANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAYAFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE ALONG THISFRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY MOUNTAIN COUNTIESTHURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LIGHT POPS FOREAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH HIGHERAMOUNTS ALONG THE RIDGES TO LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wake County schools going with a 2 hour delay this morning. When is the snow supposed to move in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flowerybranchweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wunder Ground changed their forecast to less than a inch of snow for me , it was 1-3 inches yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownpm85 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow Chris Justus from WYFF in Greenville SC just showed the NAM snow output on air. He did preface it with it's not what he is expecting but what is on the high end based on the weather model. He did say a good possibility of a widespread 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Did the 6z GEFS tick north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Even though the GFS and Euro might stay further south, their snow totals actually go up further north. Guess that is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Did the 6z GEFS tick north? Yes a bit, but we are now in that window where ensembles are weighted considerably less. 0z GEFS: 6z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 LOL, well, thats Atlanta's 2nd biggest snow on record if correct...7-10 inches if you assume 9-10:1 ratios and the RGEM being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 LOL, well, thats Atlanta's 2nd biggest snow on record if correct...7-10 inches if you assume 9-10:1 ratios and the RGEM being right. Hey, the RGEM and the NAM were all alone showing accumulating snow in the event here this morning and they nailed it. The RGEM has been money here this winter I wouldn't feel bad about riding it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wake County schools going with a 2 hour delay this morning. When is the snow supposed to move in here? They would rather wait until there is snow in the ground to start running the buses!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Turned on the tv and WRAL is still glazing over the topic of wed/thur. It's like they are "let's just talk about xyz so maybe they won't notice the snow flake graphic and we can be non committal longer" forget all the overnight models. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hey, the RGEM and the NAM were all alone showing accumulating snow in the event here this morning and they nailed it. The RGEM has been money here this winter I wouldn't feel bad about riding it at all. It was not as aggressive though on the FZRA as far south, a big reason I think frozen precip got as far south there this AM as it has was that little period of rain around sunset last night, it wet bulbed everything down early and gave a good 3-4 degree push on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Even though the GFS and Euro might stay further south, their snow totals actually go up further north. Guess that is a win.the latest is the GFS has ticked north as well as precip shield maps now show the storm crossing S. GA instead of the Northern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Still a lot of variation on the outcome of the Wednesday Night event when looking only at the models. We should see things start to come together by the 0z this evening. Images courtesy of Weatherbell Note: For some reason, the Weatherbell 6z Total Snow Depth is displaying totally different from the 3 hour snow accumulation. At first glance, I am not sure what the difference in the algorithm is that is causing the difference. I will check with Dr. Ryan Maue. It appears to be related to the Hires Nam is seeing temperatures at the surface in the heavier snow areas staying above freezing during the precipitation. Brad Panovich also had input last night that he thought that what fell would rapidly melt on the ground. It's all up to the amount of cold air that can get in at the lower levels and at the surface. Note the NAM shows the heavier precipitation streaks in the Southern Piedmont above 32 degrees 148FXUS62 KGSP 241140AFDGSPAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC640 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WE MIGHT HAVE AN EVEN MORE INTERESTING STORMTO DEAL WITH AFTER WE ARE FINISHED WITH THIS MORNINGS EVENT. OURFOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULFOF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG WAVE MOVING EASTACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS TOTHE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS AT CROSSES THE DEEP SOUTHTHROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING...AND ISNOW ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WHAT IT HAS BEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. THEMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A RAPID INCREASE INFORCING ACROSS NE GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE WRNCAROLINAS MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COUPLED JET INTERACTIONSHOULD BRING EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVEMOVES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD ALSO KICK IN BYAROUND 00Z THURSDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS PRECIP NEWDSTEADILY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL FINE TUNE THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TOGO WITH A CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POP WITH A NW TO SE GRADIENT FORWEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING OFF EARLY THURSDAYMORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THE EXIT OF THESTRONGER FORCING AFTER 06Z. PARTIAL THICKNESS AND FCST SOUNDINGSONCE AGAIN SUGGEST PRECIP TYPES LOOK TO BE A RAIN VERSUS SNOWSCENARIO...WITH SFC WET BULB TEMPS PLAYING A BIG PART. THINK THESTRONG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SOME DYNAMIC COOLING THAT WILL HELPKEEP PROFILES BELOW FREEZING SUCH THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL FALLAS SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT MAYBE THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND LAKELANDS OF SC.THE FCST LEANS MORE ON THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN ORDER TO DAMPEN SOMEOF THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY OF THE LOW TRACK AND NRN EXTENT OF THEPRECIP SHIELD. THE FCST ALSO BORROWS HEAVILY FROM THE QPF GUIDANCEISSUED BY WPC...AND ONCE THAT IS CONVERTED TO SNOWFALL...WE HAVE AFCST THAT SUGGESTS WE WILL REACH 12HR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALLACROSS ALMOST ALL THE FCST AREA. THE PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM THE 03ZSREF ARE COMPELLING. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERSHAVE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL AT MOST SITES BY 06Z THURSDAY. THEREARE A FEW CAVEATS...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED GIVEN MOST EVENTS DO NOTALWAYS GO ACCORDING TO PLAN. THE FCST STILL ASSUMES THAT COLD AIRWILL ARRIVE FROM THE N/NW AS THE PRECIP SPREADS UP FROM THE SW ASTHE BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO COOLS WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THE COLD AIR ISDELAYED...MORE OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ALONG/S OF I-85. IFTHE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS TOO FAR S...THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDORWILL NOT GET SUFFICIENT PRECIP TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. THERE WILLPROBABLY BE A 50 MILE WIDE BAND WHERE SNOWFALL IS MAXIMIZED...RUNNING WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. ALLTHAT ASIDE... THINK THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ISSUE A WINTERSTORM WATCH WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE...AS CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE 50 PCTTHAT WE WILL SEE SOMETHING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 3-4 INCHES OF SNOWMAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE GOALPOSTS WIDE FORNOW...SO THE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA FORWEDNESDAY NIGHT.THE REST OF THE FCST IS LESS BUSY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERINGSNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MTNS ON THURSDAY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE ALSOSUGGESTS SOME LINGERING SHOWERY PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS THE NCFOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT INTO THURSDAY EVE. ANY NW FLOW POTENTIALON THE TN BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH BY FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Any word on overnight EPS totals or did i miss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The hi-res NAM looks a lot more impressive than that for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 wow 3 inches so far out of this first storm. over performed for sure. still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The hi-res NAM looks a lot more impressive than that for NC. So does the snowfall on the regular NAM. Something funky is going on with that WB snow depth map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nam still looks bogus and too far north. If doc came north last night I would say ok. But It didn't. Not even close to what the nam shows. IMHO is clueless. We will see with the 12z runs today, but if I'm in ATL I'm preparing for a winter storm with up to a half a foot of snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nam still looks bogus and too far north. If doc came north last night I would say ok. But It didn't. Not even close to what the nam shows. IMHO is clueless. We will see with the 12z runs today, but if I'm in ATL I'm preparing for a winter storm with up to a half a foot of snow. Sent from my iPhone Only thing Chris is the Euro was clueless about today. RGEM and nam both nailed it. I would say a split of the RGEM and nam is probably a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 GFS keeps the slp fairly week and more easterly in its path. Still a pretty picture. But if we get that sub1K slp near Hatteras like some other models suggest, its going to be a pasting. Can't help but wonder if this morning's over performance is a foreshadowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Still a lot of variation on the outcome of the Wednesday Night event when looking only at the models. Interesting to note on the 6z 4km Hires NAM that the NAM has now backed off on it's aggressive QPF output from yesterday and has shifted things back to the N and NW. We should see things start to come together by the 0z this evening. Not true. Take that snowfall map out further than 4 AM on Thursday, and you'll see the totals ramp up across the entire state. The 06Z NAM was incredible for the entire state of NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 6z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Guess our best bet here is for today's snow to keep temps cooler than forecast here for tomorrow ! Forecast is for 47 tomorrow and GSP even mentions the "r" word, rain!! And even though they issued a WSW for tomorrow night, you have to be concerned waiting on the cold, as they mention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nam still looks bogus and too far north. If doc came north last night I would say ok. But It didn't. Not even close to what the nam shows. IMHO is clueless. We will see with the 12z runs today, but if I'm in ATL I'm preparing for a winter storm with up to a half a foot of snow. Sent from my iPhone The NAM (both versions) has Atlanta getting hit hard, especially from downtown north. At least on Allan's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The NAM's keep the ULL closed off longer and actually the 6z NAM actually kept it closed longer than it's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Only thing Chris is the Euro was clueless about today. RGEM and nam both nailed it. I would say a split of the RGEM and nam is probably a safe bet.To my knowledge the euro did good with today. It was one of the wettest models around here. But I would say I don't think the nam is correct because it's too strong and north with the H5 look. Not even the southern branch happy doc is. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The NAM's keep the ULL closed off longer and actually the 6z NAM actually kept it closed longer than it's 0z run.it continues that good trend. Did you see the sref individuals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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