Lookout Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gotta wonder though if that's reality if the low stays closed for longer. It takes a track where probably worst case as it flies over head it quickly changes over to snow and lays down 1-2 inches. Anyone on the NW side is gonna get plastered. well The nam has shifted the 0c 850mb isotherm over 100 miles further north since yesterday. Whatever is happening folks should hope it stops..unless you are in virginia. the one thing i would caution though is the nam looks way over done with precip so there could be a lot of waa that is overdone. But...again it can't be discounted this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah this is the amped scenario It's what we like to call getting NAM'd! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 burger called it. this thing will keep trending stronger as we get closer. hope the gfs comes on board later, have to temper expectations until it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How does that low in SE Canada and the NE look? East said that should keep the storm from going too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Or a tree refreshing rain! Been burned too many times by " dynamic cooling" LOL I gotta agree. if the nam is right, snow would not be the only p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Honestly DT's map with the 8-10" line is as if he saw the 00z NAM early...just shift it south and east a half a county or so and it's verbatim almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How does that high in SE Canada and the NE look? East said that should keep the storm from going too far north.I could be completely off, but I feel like later trends as we approach the storm have had the blocking up north kind of move out faster than progged which has had the systems come more north as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Maybe Wxrisk really was up to something with his call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 LOL I gotta agree. if the nam is right, snow would not be the only p-type. If the NAM is right snow would be the only P-type for us....maybe starting as rain and wasting .08 of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yeah this is the amped scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Absolute disaster for Atlanta. If the GFS and Euro cave tonight there will be so many cliff jumpers. One run and it went north 150 miles north. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Man that thing is fast 6-8 hour storm max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Honestly DT's map with the 8-10" line is as if he saw the 00z NAM early...just shift it south and east a half a county or so and it's verbatim almost. thing is, if it nam is right we get 2" tomorrow then additional snow thurs. would have close to a foot on the ground by friday. not sold on the high qpf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 well The nam has shifted the 0c 850mb isotherm over 100 miles further north since yesterday. Whatever is happening folks should hope it stops..unless you are in virginia. the one thing i would caution though is the nam looks way over done with precip so there could be a lot of waa that is overdone. But...again it can't be discounted this year. Ya, this could be a really bad sign...LOL Might have to adjust the map tonight if the GFS comes north. If the DOC and CMC do as well...it might be lights out in the 20 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Guys calm down the surface low is not going to go any farther north than south georgia. It can hug the Atlantic Coast but north ga posters should be fine. The precip shift has to do with the energy being stronger and taking on more of a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Honestly DT's map with the 8-10" line is as if he saw the 00z NAM early...just shift it south and east a half a county or so and it's verbatim almost. Well we know the NAM is wrong if it's even remotely similar to DTs map lol but for real, he rarely gets a snow map right for anyone let alone anyone south of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hi-Res NAM says the regular NAM is on crack with it's warm 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I could be completely off, but I feel like later trends as we approach the storm have had the blocking up north kind of move out faster than progged which has had the systems come more north as we get closer I meant the low. This is what East said on his blog this morning. "What can go wrong? First of all, there is only so far NW this can trend this time around due to the big low in SE Canada and the Northeast, so some additional NW ticks are possible, but I don't think this winds up a big rainstorm for western and central NC. Areas in northern SC though...it could get trickier." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I could be completely off, but I feel like later trends as we approach the storm have had the blocking up north kind of move out faster than progged which has had the systems come more north as we get closerthis, and stronger southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Guys calm down the surface low is not going to go any farther north than south georgia. It can hug the Atlantic Coast but north ga posters should be fine. The precip shift has to do with the energy being stronger and taking on more of a negative tilt. It's the SFC and 850 temps...they're warm as hell. We would be getting a heavy rain, not a heavy snow..ugh. Imagine the rates with this storm too...really would like to see some heavy snow...haven't seen any in 4 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 burger called it. this thing will keep trending stronger as we get closer. hope the gfs comes on board later, have to temper expectations until it does. What could be causing the GFS to be so different from the other models...meterologically speaking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How does that low in SE Canada and the NE look? East said that should keep the storm from going too far north. The SE Canada vortex held fine - the heights over the Northeast did not rise. The southern wave was just a little more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hi-Res NAM says the regular NAM is on crack with it's warm 850's. Hi-res NAM has over a foot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 990MB low on Cape Hatteras is by far the most amped run so far for this system... from the 4KM NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hi-Res NAM says the regular NAM is on crack with it's warm 850's. [/quote At hour 57 the 0 degree 850 line hits the VA border north of Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 24hour snow valid 12z Thursday from 4km nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What could be causing the GFS to be so different from the other models...meterologically speaking? i mean it wasnt showing tomorrows event until what? 12z today? it has always had a southern bias only to tick nw right before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That was definitely a north tick on the NAM. Needs to be watched for sure if the others follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hi-Res NAM says the regular NAM is on crack with it's warm 850's. [/quote At hour 57 the 0 degree 850 line hits the VA border north of Raleigh Yes after the bulk of the precip has moved out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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