rduwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The canadian drops the end of week HP way south. Therefore everything is suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Is the GEFS out yet? How does it look? I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro deliver the goods tonight either. We are getting in its timeframe now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The canadian drops the end of week HP way south. Therefore everything is suppressed. ...and i just don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The models wanteds to keep pushing the storm last Monday further and further south until it eventually came back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 ...and i just don't see that happening. Me either with the way storm tracks tend to trend NW around here. I think it's good that these storms are suppressed right now. I think the idea is that we have several "chances" to get something this week and hopefully at least one of them pans out. If it does maybe it will be a big one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 00z GEFS is a lot wetter for the D5 storm. Oh, boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 00z GEFS is a lot wetter for the D5 storm. Oh, boy. Cold enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 00z GEFS is a lot wetter for the D5 storm. Oh, boy. How far north and west are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Cold enough? Easily, though I am just going by the mean, which is cold enough for almost all of NC and upstate SC/N GA. How far north and west are they? 0.25-0.5" gets all the way back to the NC/TN border. The 18z GEFS had 0.25-0.5" south of Raleigh. Of course, I haven't seen the individual members yet, so maybe it's a few nutty members skewing the mean upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Easily, though I am just going by the mean, which is cold enough for almost all of NC and upstate SC/N GA. 0.25-0.5" gets all the way back to the NC/TN border. The 18z GEFS had 0.25-0.5" south of Raleigh. Of course, I haven't seen the individual members yet, so maybe it's a few nutty members skewing the mean upwards. Appreciate it SJ!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 With all of these potential threats, Atlanta SHOULD get some accumulating snow sometime in the next 7-8 days. In fact, a lot of the board should see snow. Let's hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Me either with the way storm tracks tend to trend NW around here. I think it's good that these storms are suppressed right now. I think the idea is that we have several "chances" to get something this week and hopefully at least one oft them pans out. If it does maybe it will be a big one too. This is the whole key guys. EVERY system this winter has gone northwest. Look no further than these last two events. The ice last week looked suppressed and folks were talking about south Georgia a SC. But we ended up on fringe and watched Kentucky and Virginia's get slammed. Today's had us getting the goods, but the snow field now is waaay north. The longer the mods show these systems suppressed, the better. If they start trending outside of about 48 hours, it's over for most of us ( snow at least but not ice). That's why I think next weekend is the only one that gives the upstate any real chance. Naturally nc will have a better chance with some of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 00z UKMET: Hr 96: Hr 120: I guess you can let your imagination fill in the blanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 00z Euro looks a little worse than the 12z run, though it does pop a flizzard for many and 1-3" for E NC immediately after the D4-5 event. The LP track goes from south of Mobile, AL to west of Cedar Key, FL to ~100 miles ESE of CHS. Now the weekend storm looks to be digging more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 LOL at the Euro. Looks like it's going to go from a massive cutter with the weekend storm to no storm at all aside from some generous flizzards. Phenomenal. Amazing. Looks like it held some energy back and is going to have a cutter D9-10 or so. EDIT: Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So the Euro is the only one not really showing anything for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Its is fun to watch everyone in the deep South wishcast Winter down here. I figured it would be a NC storm in the end (if anything) and I stick with it. N. GA, NW/NE SC & NC to have the best chance. We down here are screwed. And Brick, multiple models point to losing the weekend storm or making it too warm for many now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think that Gulf low (~1000mb) at 96 hours has to shift more to the NE than shown at 120 hours as others have suggested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It seems like no one is talking about the models actually showing a solution that has a winter storm for next week. I thought we would be seeing that now. I know the setup is supposed to have a lot of potential, but it doesn't look like the models are actually showing a specific storm yet. That is a little concerning. Maybe I am just reading too much into it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 00z UKMET isn't as good as the 12z run. Looks like 2-4" for most of NC and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The weekend storm is a completely different solution vs precious GFS runs The 6Z GFS agrees with the 0Z GFS about no 2/28 storm. That's because both runs develop a low off of the SE coast on 2/27 that wasn't on the prior GFS runs and sort of steals the thunder away from any potential 2/28 Gulf low. So, if one wants a 2/28 Gulf low, then he/she should hope that that 2/27 offshore SE low is fictitious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I guess it can always come back but I don't like the trends last night. The worry is we've seen this a lot this winter where the models will have a storm but once it's crunch time at 5h it's ends up going to crap. I hope this isn't the case and if ever a big storm followed history this would be it. Five days away the models loose it only to bring it back with a vengeance three days away. Hopefully when I land in LA the models will be back to a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 well same old same old , get up and still no good news if anything things have trended worse it looks like unless it starts trending back north or if there is a storm at all, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For this winter just take whatever model shows no snow, doesn't matter what model or its score and it will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Good agreement on all the eps ensembles being too far south like the gfs. Ukie trended towards it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Good agreement on all the eps ensembles being too far south like the gfs. Ukie trended towards it too. Well, Be darned all this 3 storm week threat gone to NOTHING!!! Like you said go with the one showing nothing or rain and you'll be a winner..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 DGEX looks like an Atlanta special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 the one hope is that all the storms have trended nw look at what this last one did just a little to far nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 the one hope is that all the storms have trended nw look at what this last one did just a little to far nw.it just goes along with everything trending away from anything wintery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 it just goes along with everything trending away from anything wintery. On the bright side, In a few weeks it'll be in the 70's and we can go golfing!!! But really March will probably more highs in the 30s than 60's or 70s You can bet that -NAO will show up sometime in March or April, to keep us cool and wet through spring....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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