extremewx52 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow. Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Where is this south precip shift? There is zero evidence of it aside from one GFS run. The Euro and UKMET continue to spread precip further northwards on each successive run, even with a fairly constant track. The precip field is expanding, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Where is this south precip shift? There is zero evidence of it aside from one GFS run. The Euro and UKMET continue to spread precip further northwards on each successive run, even with a fairly constant track. The precip field is expanding, if anything. Yep. The NAM is doing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Where is this south precip shift? There is zero evidence of it aside from one GFS run. The Euro and UKMET continue to spread precip further northwards on each successive run, even with a fairly constant track. The precip field is expanding, if anything.add the 18z navgem, nam, and sref. I think the jma too. I'm also forgetting the euro control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow. Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. Don't worry, the city will be practically deserted if there is 1/4 mile visibility snow. You and the other snow geese will be the only ones on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 For me it's not the soil temps but air temps I am worried about. Don't see how it's gonna be snow and lower 30's just a few hours after mid 40's.I can tell you I was in the superstorm of march 93 here in the upstate, and it was in the 60s here and within a matter of Hours we had 8" on the ground! ULLs has minds of their own, and they make their own cold air. So temps would be my least worries with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 From Van Denton Fox 8 Met in High Point, NC... 2 Potentials for some snow. (Share the graphic with CAUTION). #1. Tuesday we could see a few flurries, possibly snow showers as a disturbance moves to our south. Best chance late morning. Better chances near SC/NC line, Mtns and at the coast. Partial clearing by tomorrow afternoon. #2. The European model is aggressive with snow for us on Wednesday night late and Thursday morning. Other models are not so favorable for a good snow. The graphic I am posting was provided by the WPC (Weather Prediction Center). The WPC is part of NOAA just like the SPC (Storm Prediction Center for Severe Weather) and TPC (Tropical Prediction Center). I am actually surprised they are this aggressive with the uncertainty in the models. This is basically putting all of ones faith in one model. Which can be dangerous. We will have a much better idea on amounts by Tuesday evening. The track will play a very important role. Van is the man. But only one model, come on Van. There,s only one model that doesn't show snow, 18z gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow. Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. Did you see Snowjam 14'? If you get stuck though I heard Chipper Jones shows up on a snow mobile to rescue you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Did you see Snowjam 14'? If you get stuck though I heard Chipper Jones shows up on a snow mobile to rescue you. Don't worry, the city will be practically deserted if there is 1/4 mile visibility snow. You and the other snow geese will be the only ones on the roads. You both sold me. Bring on the heavy snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow. Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows.I would suggest not driving. Drivers are insane when it snows down here especially further south like ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow. Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. You have no idea....you saw what snowmageddon did down here last year, right? It was like the Walking Dead only with snow. The good thing about this storm is that temps won't be in the low 20's, but you're still gonna have southern drivers go crazy if snow is falling. Darwin awards all around. You've been warned! - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Where is this south precip shift? There is zero evidence of it aside from one GFS run. The Euro and UKMET continue to spread precip further northwards on each successive run, even with a fairly constant track. The precip field is expanding, if anything. The GEFS shifted south a little with the snow band over miss and alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow. Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. I'm in the same boat. Catching a flight at 10am out of ATL on Thur and leaving Knoxville around 5am to catch the flight. I might leave earlier knowing the traffic will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm traveling to Atlanta on Wednesday night, so this storm has certainly piqued my interest. Can't decide if I want the northern PV anomaly to crush this storm and keep it south of Atlanta to make my trip easier, or if I want to drive right into the heart of 1/4 mile ripping snow. Being from Indiana, the snow doesn't worry me, it's the other idiots on the road. There are plenty of people up here who drive in it 5 months out of the year and don't know what they are doing, I imagine it is probably worse down there where it rarely snows. Really, the only time you are going to run into Snowmageddon type traffic here (or anywhere else in the South, it happened in AL and NC last year too) is when the storm rolls in midday. If people get out of their houses and to work and school before the precip starts, then it all goes to hell in a handbasket when they get back on the road to get home. As long as the precip rolls in at night, which normally it does (not least because we often have temp issues during daylight that prevent much frozen stuff), then you are absolutely fine. Everyone will wake up, see the crap on the road or the white stuff in the yard, and not even leave the house for the day. If you go out driving around on days like that you literally see hardly anybody driving. Since both tonight and the next event are starting at night, there probably won't be too much fallout on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is the 2nd best model behind the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I should add for this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is the 2nd best model behind the ukie.nav_pr6_slp_t850_east_11.png Need that baby to track ne to inside of Cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Don't know if this has been posted already, but here it is, and cold rains' favorite words are in there! Dynamic cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Need that baby to track ne to inside of Cape Hatteras Uh, negative ghost rider, the pattern is full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Don't know if this has been posted already, but here it is, and cold rains' favorite words are in there! Dynamic cooling! That's from 9 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Don't know if this has been posted already, but here it is, and cold rains' favorite words are in there! Dynamic cooling! I remember one year when we were banking on this and all i got was rain with spurts of snow when precip was heavy. People in the comma head north of NC/SC state line should do good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is the 2nd best model behind the ukie.nav_pr6_slp_t850_east_11.png IIRC, that's the position from earlier today, perhaps even a tick further south. We talked about it running to Laurinburg to E. City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 By the way the last 3 runs of the GEFS have shifted precip to the south. Hopefully that trend stops tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Uh, negative ghost rider, the pattern is full. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 By the way the last 3 runs of the GEFS have shifted precip to the south. Hopefully that trend stops tonight. It has spread south, not shifted, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sref surface low is the same as 15z, precip maybe a little wetter farther north? Might look the same it's a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 i despise the warm ground crap. i saw it snow and STICK 4" in west columbia sc on nov 1st where it was 70 DEGREES 48 HOURS PRIOR.I was there...I can attest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Sref surface low is the same as 15z, precip maybe a little wetter farther north? Might look the same it's a good run. Very similar to 15z..maybe not quite as far west in TN? I'm only comparing the 57 hr map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is the 2nd best model behind the ukie.nav_pr6_slp_t850_east_11.png The NAVGEM is great, it has 1" QPF tickling CLT/RDU. It's similar to the UK but the Euro is weaker, although the EPS is probably close. Hopefully the GFS Op shows something tonight that's a little better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I dunno my mean got cut in half on SREF. Now its 3.44". 7 members showing 6"+. Scratch that it loaded the old plumes. Mean is actually 5.84" so it did drop by a inch or so. 9 members 6"+ and a big grouping around the 10" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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