deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 All new map is up with forecast amounts for TUE and WED. Again, thank you everyone for all the new likes and shares. I can't thank yall enough. Please keep it going, we are almost to 1,100 likes!! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Regarding temperatures... I've looked at GFS/NAM/Euro sounding data (Euro at sfc/925/850 only). For Charlotte on today's runs, I'm seeing this starting as a rain/snow mix with sfc wet-bulbs in the mid-30's. As more precip works in and the column cools, the sfc temps drop to 32/33. I would estimate we lose something around 0.15 liquid to mixing, then it goes to all snow. That leaves 0.35 liq equiv as snow on the Euro, 0.47 as snow on the 18z NAM, and pretty much nothing on the suppressed GFS, lol A couple other points... 1. The near sfc warm layer is quite shallow on the soundings...so, it's not as difficult to overcome 2. The cold air that we do have comes in tonight essentially, then hangs on until our storm arrives. It's not like a situation where we are waiting on the cold air to come across the mountains and get here in time. Having said all of that, no doubt there is very little wiggle room with temperatures in this area Grit, am I getting bad numbers? this is what pops up for CLT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 18z GEFS mean a hair south and east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 North Georgia is the jackpot zone, jmo. I agree. Right now, NGA looks like the bullseye for this storm. Best thing for Metro ATL at the moment would be for the storm track to trend south, so that the freezing line(s) can come down south more. But even if we get only 1 inch, I would be happy. EDIT: Just saw Chris' maps for both storms. Seems like the local Mets disagree with TWC for the Wednesday storm. When is TWC ever right with these kinds of storms though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Brad p. Latest video Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/569987131759824896?s=09 I guess if the GFS is weighted at 90% he would be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here are the individual sref members from 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18z GEFS mean a hair south and east of 12z.not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Regarding temperatures... I've looked at GFS/NAM/Euro sounding data (Euro at sfc/925/850 only). For Charlotte on today's runs, I'm seeing this starting as a rain/snow mix with sfc wet-bulbs in the mid-30's. As more precip works in and the column cools, the sfc temps drop to 32/33. I would estimate we lose something around 0.15 liquid to mixing, then it goes to all snow. That leaves 0.35 liq equiv as snow on the Euro, 0.47 as snow on the 18z NAM, and pretty much nothing on the suppressed GFS, lol A couple other points... 1. The near sfc warm layer is quite shallow on the soundings...so, it's not as difficult to overcome 2. The cold air that we do have comes in tonight essentially, then hangs on until our storm arrives. It's not like a situation where we are waiting on the cold air to come across the mountains and get here in time. Having said all of that, no doubt there is very little wiggle room with temperatures in this area Thanks for posting this, Grit. It's unwise to blithely dismiss temp issues. NWS and experienced TV mets don't just throw that out there for the fun of it to torment people who like snow. They're not stupid. That said, the fact that this is not a situation where we're waiting on cold to come across the mountains and the fact that the above freezing layer is shallow is significant. So thanks for pointing that out. It helps me feel a bit better. I'll feel even better if we don't get much higher than 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Grit, am I getting bad numbers? this is what pops up for CLT: I'm not grit, but I think that first .14 of liquid falls between 7pm and 10pm. So you would need to look at the sounding for 7pm to get an idea of what's going on there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not grit, but I think that first .14 of liquid falls between 7pm and 10pm. So you would need to look at the sounding for 7pm to get an idea of what's going on there... Oh yeah, I'm totally with him there. I'm just getting higher QPF numbers than he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 All new map is up with forecast amounts for TUE and WED. Again, thank you everyone for all the new likes and shares. I can't thank yall enough. Please keep it going, we are almost to 1,100 likes!! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons nice Chris! I shared it on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Grit, am I getting bad numbers? this is what pops up for CLT: I was going off the wxbell maps, so our numbers may not match exactly....but, I have the precip starting on the Euro around 00z. At that time, the sfc temp is 39 and the dewpoint is 29...so, mid-30's sfc wet-bulb. It looks like you have a little more total qpf than what I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I was going off the wxbell maps, so our numbers may not match exactly....but, I have the precip starting on the Euro around 00z. At that time, the sfc temp is 39 and the dewpoint is 29...so, mid-30's sfc wet-bulb. It looks like you have a little more total qpf than what I have. Gotcha. I'm using extracted data from the Euro off AccuWx pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Fishel just showed a map and said right now models show around 5 inches of snow if it all accumulated but he thinks the warm ground will hinder that. If it shifts 50 miles SE, 2 inches. If it shifts 50 miles NW, you would think a lot more snow, but the system will pull in warm air and cut down snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Fishel just showed a map and said right now models show around 5 inches of snow if it all accumulated but he thinks the warm ground will hinder that. If it shifts 50 miles SE, 2 inches. If it shifts 50 miles NW, you would think a lot more snow, but the system will pull in warm air and cut down snow. Seems to be going against what everyone here is saying, but okay. And like other mets have said here, the ground won't be that warm after the cold weather we have had the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 IMHO that looks pretty good with the track, and ptypes As usual the signals are conflicting because it's never easy. The RGEM is not way north at 54 like normal but the NavGem is uncharacteristically north, many times this winter when the NavGem had shown that it's been into something but usually it has support from another model, the ukmet is the next furthest north but it appeared to me it wasn't as far north...I still could see changes, they won't be big mileage wise but impact wise yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Fishel just showed a map and said right now models show around 5 inches of snow if it all accumulated but he thinks the warm ground will hinder that. If it shifts 50 miles SE, 2 inches. If it shifts 50 miles NW, you would think a lot more snow, but the system will pull in warm air and cut down snow. i despise the warm ground crap. i saw it snow and STICK 4" in west columbia sc on nov 1st where it was 70 DEGREES 48 HOURS PRIOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 i despise the warm ground crap. i saw it snow and STICK 4" in west columbia sc on nov 1st where it was 70 DEGREES 48 HOURS PRIOR. 10-4 on that. I said that "warm ground" would never hold water with me ever again after that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here's GFS-analyzed 0-10cm soil temperatures valid 0z Thursday. Not very warm if you ask me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 i despise the warm ground crap. i saw it snow and STICK 4" in west columbia sc on nov 1st where it was 70 DEGREES 48 HOURS PRIOR. I always tell people about a storm Albany NY had in April of 2000, they were either 80 or 86 degrees the day before and then got 16 inches of snow the next morning and it had no problem sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 nice Chris! I shared it on FB.[/quot nice Chris! I shared it on FB. Me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Soil temps aren't even a minor factor for accums here. I still got a little pile in the shade melting beside the house. Don't even sweat soil temps, put it to bed. The only negative Nancy to even discuss is the shallow and I mean shallow above frzng surface temps at begining. Rates will trump easily if you are faced with this dilema. FEB 28 2004 I saw 17 inches with surface temp flipping between 33 and 32. You want to max your qpf at night and mby should be hammering during the wee hours Thursday a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 nice Chris! I shared it on FB. Awesome! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For me it's not the soil temps but air temps I am worried about. Don't see how it's gonna be snow and lower 30's just a few hours after mid 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 As usual the signals are conflicting because it's never easy. The RGEM is not way north at 54 like normal but the NavGem is uncharacteristically north, many times this winter when the NavGem had shown that it's been into something but usually it has support from another model, the ukmet is the next furthest north but it appeared to me it wasn't as far north...I still could see changes, they won't be big mileage wise but impact wise yes ya, I just think the UKIE is a bit too "strong" and likely a bit further north. I understand the EPS has many members further south than the OP? Either way, UKIE too far north, GFS too far south, I will take a blend and I-20 gets hit, maybe hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 From Van Denton Fox 8 Met in High Point, NC... 2 Potentials for some snow. (Share the graphic with CAUTION).#1. Tuesday we could see a few flurries, possibly snow showers as a disturbance moves to our south. Best chance late morning. Better chances near SC/NC line, Mtns and at the coast. Partial clearing by tomorrow afternoon.#2. The European model is aggressive with snow for us on Wednesday night late and Thursday morning. Other models are not so favorable for a good snow. The graphic I am posting was provided by the WPC (Weather Prediction Center). The WPC is part of NOAA just like the SPC (Storm Prediction Center for Severe Weather) and TPC (Tropical Prediction Center). I am actually surprised they are this aggressive with the uncertainty in the models. This is basically putting all of ones faith in one model. Which can be dangerous.We will have a much better idea on amounts by Tuesday evening. The track will play a very important role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Local point forecast now calling for 1-2" Wed. night - but just a 60% chance of precipitation. Zone forecast isn't mentioning amounts yet. As far as soil temps, current hourly soil temp is 39.5 here around Clayton, NC. That data can be pulled up on the Chronos page when you click on a site and enter your criteria. For those unfamiliar with the page, it covers the entire SE from VA to FL, and W to TN & KY. http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/map/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That dang 18Z GFS. Trying to decide now if I should stay up for the 0z run. Really would feel better if it would trend closer to the Euro. Winter weather in the SE.....guess this is what makes it fun. Wished we could have one winter storm where all the models were in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think the south movement of the precip is real if the temperature profiles are correct which are indicating a further southward push of the rain/snow line, That indicates to me that the model (GFS, RGEM) are picking up that stronger push of cold and reflecting it in the track of the surface low more to the south. This is why people are being so cautious about amounts of accumulation with the snow but it will be more refined by 12Z tomorrow either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think the south movement of the precip is real if the temperature profiles are correct which are indicating a further southward push of the rain/snow line, That indicates to me that the model (GFS, RGEM) are picking up that stronger push of cold and reflecting it in the track of the surface low more to the south. This is why people are being so cautious about amounts of accumulation with the snow but it will be more refined by 12Z tomorrow either way. Read on that "other" board there is no south shift in the precip, just trending colder and precip expanding southward. Who knows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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