POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Maybe everybody will get a piece of the pie. Doesn't matter to me I know I can't get them all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Mind you, the ground is still plenty cold from last week. We've had exactly one day in the 50s. Yea I agree. The only thing that will limit accumulations will be sfc temps and I think they will be sufficiently cold (30-32) enough given how cold the upper levels will be. He might not believe this to be a legit' threat, but using ground temps is a straw man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So the GFS vs. everybody. I like the odds of the GooFuS being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I was about to bring that up. Seems like some just love to ignore that record cold snap last week, and a brief warm up And somehow magically the ground is a an incubator. Oddly enough, the ground has warmed siginficantly here today with the sun and upper 50 temperatures. I have a weather station with soil temp sensors. The shallowest sensor is at 4 inches and it was below freezing during the cold spell(which is very unusual.) That 4 inch probe has rocketed up to 52 degree's as of right now though... On the flip side, if we can get a little snow tomorrow morning it should act to knock ground temps back down into the mid/upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Temps in the 40's during the day will have zero impact on accumulations at night. I don't get where met's come up w/ this crap. No kidding, we were 53 with sunshine most of the day in Boone yesterday and had very very light snow this morning and just about every dang flake stuck...even the parking lot was white. I swear some of the mets don't have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 How reliable are the SREF Plumes generally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here is the CRONOS Climate Date page with soil temps... http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/map/ If we get a good amount of accumulation how in the heck will it reach 47 at the surface? I'm guessing some cloud cover will last after noon and then temps will crash Wed night below freezing and into the 20s so why talk about road temps? I agree with burger they would cut into accums but not if we have heavy rates. I have to look at what the euro is spitting out for a max temp but it just sounds silly to be near 50 after the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 47 on wednesday ahead of the stormRead that completely wrong my bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 How reliable are the SREF Plumes generally? Not reliable at all much beyond 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Oddly enough, the ground has warmed siginficantly here today with the sun and upper 50 temperatures. I have a weather station with soil temp sensors. The shallowest sensor is at 4 inches and it was below freezing during the cold spell(which is very unusual.) That 4 inch probe has rocketed up to 52 degree's as of right now though... On the flip side, if we can get a little snow tomorrow morning it should act to knock ground temps back down into the mid/upper 30's. The NAM holds me at or below freezing all day tomorrow. That oughta fix any warming that has occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not reliable at all much beyond 24 hours. Ok Thanks, That's what I figured they change so much every run seems like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Every year warm ground comes up and every year heavy rates make that argument moot. If the temp drops like a rock and we have heavy rates you might loose a half inch of snow...maybe.Great Point. The warm ground argument is often very overstated. Especially now. Our weather has been cold. Our soils temps should be in pretty good shape to receive snow. If you get to 47 Wednesday, overcoming air temps could be more of an issue that eats into accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think this needs to trend to a closed low to make significant impact in mby. The boundary level temps, and the speed of this thing is really going to limit it's impact IMO. Well, it depends on where you've set your expectation level in terms of impact. Let's shoot for some accumulating snow and leave it there for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree. The higher the temp gets Wednesday, it is going to take a looooong time to get temperatures cold enough for snow. I've seen this a million times. Waiting up all night long waiting for that rain to transition to snow and by the time it does, dusting. Who told you this was going to start as rain? Whoever it was give them a good smack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Who told you this was going to start as rain? Whoever it was give them a good smack. GSP NWS said it would be rain to start in their latest forecast discussion. Can't go against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Navgem looks great! Navgem ukie combo ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GSP NWS said it would be rain to start in their latest forecast discussion. Can't go against that. He's in Raleigh. I haven't seen a model here hint at a start w/ rain. The gfs/nam are both solidly in the snow category in pretty much every measurement (nomogram/thicknesses, soundings etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Fishel just said he is worried about a high temp of 47 on Wednesday cutting down accumulations from that night because of a very warm ground. GFS forecasted soil temperatures for the top 0-10cm layer remain in the mid to low 30's Wednesday afternoon into the evening so that will not be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ground temps will not be that warm. Since most precip will fall at night, soil temperatures will not be a problem assuming precipitation rates are as modelled on all models except the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Brad p. Latest video Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/569987131759824896?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Navgem looks great! Navgem ukie combo ftw!franklin what does it look like for kavl wednesday night and thursday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Can we move on from the ground temps,sun angle, and nws not being bullish 60 hours out. This gets rehashed every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 franklin what does it look like for kavl wednesday night and thursday storm?look back one page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I was about to bring that up. Seems like some just love to ignore that record cold snap last week, and a brief warm up And somehow magically the ground is a an incubator. And folks also worried about the temps in the 40s Wednesday ahead of the storm. I doubt it will get in the upper 40s if we have a chance of snow tomorrow and the clouds hang around afterwards into Wednesday. Besides, if the rates are heavy enough, 47 for a high Wednesday is not going to matter. It will crash the temps if the rates are heavy and change over to snow and stick. We have had storms here after a high much warmer than that and still had plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Brad p. Latest video Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/569987131759824896?s=09 can't pull it up what is he saying on the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Regarding temperatures... I've looked at GFS/NAM/Euro sounding data (Euro at sfc/925/850 only). For Charlotte on today's runs, I'm seeing this starting as a rain/snow mix with sfc wet-bulbs in the mid-30's. As more precip works in and the column cools, the sfc temps drop to 32/33. I would estimate we lose something around 0.15 liquid to mixing, then it goes to all snow. That leaves 0.35 liq equiv as snow on the Euro, 0.47 as snow on the 18z NAM, and pretty much nothing on the suppressed GFS, lol A couple other points... 1. The near sfc warm layer is quite shallow on the soundings...so, it's not as difficult to overcome 2. The cold air that we do have comes in tonight essentially, then hangs on until our storm arrives. It's not like a situation where we are waiting on the cold air to come across the mountains and get here in time. Having said all of that, no doubt there is very little wiggle room with temperatures in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 He's in Raleigh. I haven't seen a model here hint at a start w/ rain. The gfs/nam are both solidly in the snow category in pretty much every measurement (nomogram/thicknesses, soundings etc). I think Fishel seriously just throws out all the worst case scenarios and things that can happen no matter how good the model trends look just in case the storm goes against all the guidance so he can make sure to cover himself in case it busts. And maybe it will bust, but it would be going against the probability that most of the models are showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 North Georgia is the jackpot zone, jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Hopefully tonight we can see a trend towards a closed off upper low, that would help greatly with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The RGEM has 8mm of snow already in ATL as of 54 hours 7pm Wed evening thats 0.30 liquid.... IMHO that looks pretty good with the track, and ptypes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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