packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is trending opposite of every other model. LOL Yeah it might whiff. Not sure we can totally just ignore it though, it's been pretty good at this range, better than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 How do you guys think Metro ATL will perform? 1-2 inches of frozen precip? 3-6? Alot of the models are saying 1-2 inches, but for some reason I feel like this is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think for southern va to see a decent storm, the gfs is going to need to take a step north by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yep GFS is sticking to it's guns. Blanks NC. I guess it could be right but doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 precip barely makes it into NC and there's almost no snow anywhere per the GFS as precip ends where the 0 line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah it might whiff. Not sure we can totally just ignore it though, it's been pretty good at this range, better than the Euro. That depends on what you mean. I think you can ignore the actual solution, I don't think there's much of a chance of that happening. What you can't ignore is the prospect of the other models trending south somewhat and everyone meeting in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Boom or bust. Is the GFS the only outlier at this point? We are getting within 48 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigKingDaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 precip barely makes it into NC and there's almost no snow anywhere per the GFS as precip ends where the 0 line is. And cue the board meltdown in 3, 2, 1..... Hopefully a case of just Goofy being Goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 How do you guys think Metro ATL will perform? 1-2 inches of frozen precip? 3-6? Alot of the models are saying 1-2 inches, but for some reason I feel like this is an understatement. I'm down the road from you in Brookhaven. Truth is usually somewhere in the middle. I think at this point in the game, 2-4" seems plausible, but I wouldn't be shocked if the other 2 sets of parameters verified either. Could easily see Alpharetta/Johns Creek get 3-6" but folks ITP get no more than 3", especially north of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Boom or bust. Is the GFS the only outlier at this point? We are getting within 48 hours... If the GFS ends up busting badly with this at this short lead, it needs to be put out to pasture. On the other hand, it did verify better with the Boston Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Boom or bust. Is the GFS the only outlier at this point? We are getting within 48 hours... pretty much. we'll see how the GEFS likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The RGEM has 8mm of snow already in ATL as of 54 hours 7pm Wed evening thats 0.30 liquid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the GFS ends up busting badly with this at this short lead, it needs to be put out to pasture. On the other hand, it did verify better with the Boston Blizzard. I feel like this system is kind of playing to the GFS bias. Even with the new upgrade it still always seems to want to keep energy south of where it's actually going until the last second. It does have support from the CMC though so it can't be ruled out right now. Either way even with that look you would have more moisture on the northwest side of that low. Probably wouldn't put RDU in the game but GSP to CLT to possibly Salisbury could get 1-2 inches I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Boom or bust. Is the GFS the only outlier at this point? We are getting within 48 hours... being the only model isn't the gfs the outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 climo doesn't mean crap when forecasting in the now. climo says that a lot of things shouldn't happen that do or vise versa. Actually, climo for a big event for ATL-AHN is actually as favorable as can be base on the overall very cold and pretty wet Feb combined with El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 My caution on BL issues notwithstanding, I would be shocked if the GFS pulled a coup here. I know every season is different, models get updated, yadda yadda yadda, but in the years I've been following this, I've never once seen an outlier GFS suppressed solution win out. precip barely makes it into NC and there's almost no snow anywhere per the GFS as precip ends where the 0 line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Actually, climo for a big event for ATL-AHN is actually as favorable as can be base on the overall very cold and pretty wet Feb combined with El Niño. I'm glad you also post on this board. You're quite the wx historian for GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Blacksburg not biting on the northward trend For foothills. My updated forecast from the National Weather Service 40% chance of snow Wednesday after midnight light accumulations possible nothing Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Back to the 70% chance with "heavy accumulations possible." for Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Boom or bust. Is the GFS the only outlier at this point? We are getting within 48 hours... I'm going with boom, its our time! still look for this to tick nw tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Back to the 70% chance with "heavy accumulations possible." for Wednesday night. Last time i saw that was where we got that foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the GFS ends up busting badly with this at this short lead, it needs to be put out to pasture. On the other hand, it did verify better with the Boston Blizzard. It only verified better in some areas like NYC, it missed badly in parts of New England, overall its been the worst model the last few weeks now. The UKMET/Euro and RGEM have traded off since being the best...thus far on this event the UKMET is somewhat of an outlier, the RGEM is usually NW of the average guidance envelope at 48-54, and its not right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Last time i saw that was where we got that foot of snow. Last I I did was last week for this past Saturday. LOL. I received neither a snowflake nor a raindrop. If we're going to get blasted with an 8"+ storm, it's gotta come down hard non-stop. This is a fast moving system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Current modeling sure seems resistant to the normal NW trend. It's been pretty non-existant today imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 18z NAVGEM is a big hit for NC and more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Last I I did was last week for this past Saturday. LOL. I received neither a snowflake nor a raindrop. If we're going to get blasted with an 8"+ storm, it's gotta come down hard non-stop. This is a fast moving system. Yep, we get 6 hours of heavy stuff according to the NAM. I still think 2-4 is a safe bet for most but I am leaning on 3-6 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 the RGEM is usually NW of the average guidance envelope at 48-54, and its not right now. Yeah I can see why with a 500mb map looking like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Current modeling sure seems resistant to the normal NW trend. It's been pretty non-existant today imo. With the way this winter has gone, it would not surprise to me see the models trend southeast tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Good bet at this time period. I shoot high and expect low totals 24n hour rule in full effect.. Yep, we get 6 hours of heavy stuff according to the NAM. I still think 2-4 is a safe bet for most but I am leaning on 3-6 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Current modeling sure seems resistant to the normal NW trend. It's been pretty non-existant today imo.I guess if your not looking at the nam, sref, ukie, euro control, and cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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