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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Yeah it might whiff.  Not sure we can totally just ignore it though, it's been pretty good at this range, better than the Euro.

That depends on what you mean. I think you can ignore the actual solution, I don't think there's much of a chance of that happening. What you can't ignore is the prospect of the other models trending south somewhat and everyone meeting in the middle.

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How do you guys think Metro ATL will perform? 1-2 inches of frozen precip? 3-6? Alot of the models are saying 1-2 inches, but for some reason I feel like this is an understatement.

I'm down the road from you in Brookhaven. Truth is usually somewhere in the middle.  I think at this point in the game, 2-4" seems plausible, but I wouldn't be shocked if the other 2 sets of parameters verified either.  Could easily see Alpharetta/Johns Creek get 3-6" but folks ITP get no more than 3", especially north of I-20.

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If the GFS ends up busting badly with this at this short lead, it needs to be put out to pasture.  On the other hand, it did verify better with the Boston Blizzard.

 

I feel like this system is kind of playing to the GFS bias. Even with the new upgrade it still always seems to want to keep energy south of where it's actually going until the last second. It does have support from the CMC though so it can't be ruled out right now. Either way even with that look you would have more moisture on the northwest side of that low. Probably wouldn't put RDU in the game but GSP to CLT to possibly Salisbury could get 1-2 inches I would think. 

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climo doesn't mean crap when forecasting in the now. climo says that a lot of things shouldn't happen that do or vise versa.

Actually, climo for a big event for ATL-AHN is actually as favorable as can be base on the overall very cold and pretty wet Feb combined with El Niño.

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My caution on BL issues notwithstanding, I would be shocked if the GFS pulled a coup here. I know every season is different, models get updated, yadda yadda yadda, but in the years I've been following this, I've never once seen an outlier GFS suppressed solution win out.

precip barely makes it into NC and there's almost no snow anywhere per the GFS as precip ends where the 0 line is.  

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If the GFS ends up busting badly with this at this short lead, it needs to be put out to pasture.  On the other hand, it did verify better with the Boston Blizzard.

 

It only verified better in some areas like NYC, it missed badly in parts of New England, overall its been the worst model the last few weeks now.  The UKMET/Euro and RGEM have traded off since being the best...thus far on this event the UKMET is somewhat of an outlier, the RGEM is usually NW of the average guidance envelope at 48-54, and its not right now.

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Last time i saw that was where we got that foot of snow. 

 

Last I I did was last week for this past Saturday. LOL.  I received neither a snowflake nor a raindrop.

 

If we're going to get blasted with an 8"+ storm, it's gotta come down hard non-stop. This is a fast moving system.

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Last I I did was last week for this past Saturday. LOL.  I received neither a snowflake nor a raindrop.

 

If we're going to get blasted with an 8"+ storm, it's gotta come down hard non-stop. This is a fast moving system.

 

Yep, we get 6 hours of heavy stuff according to the NAM. I still think 2-4 is a safe bet for most but I am leaning on 3-6 for us. 

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