burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What's the time frame on this for tomorrow? There is an entire thread dedicated to that storm that's stickied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Hi-RES NAM brings in .75 to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What's the time frame on this for tomorrow? There's a whole thread on it baby! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45828-february-23rd-24th-winter-weather-discussionobs/page-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This is the WORST case scenario. Weenies contain yourself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 There's a whole thread on it baby! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45828-february-23rd-24th-winter-weather-discussionobs/page-6? Sorry bout that gang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I want to say their maps tend to be heavily GFS based, its a dirty rumor but one I often see spread around, you can argue based on those at least its true. yeah if they are basing it off the gfs, then i can certainly see that. I don't get too worked up over what they forecast since in terms of winter storms here, they often will miss it. i just think based on models as a whole, those props are a bit low. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Sorry bout that gang! No worries. It literally showed back up as a threat for us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think GSP is very wise to be cautious on this storm. I also think it's a mistake to assume because there were temp busts in recent weeks on CAD events that the same will happen on this storm. This system is totally different -- not a CAD event, it's a dynamic cooling event. I would submit that for every March 1 cutoff low thundersnow bomb that there are 10 events where dynamic cooling did not pan out. I remember multi-contour closed lows that still didn't do the trick with marginal BL temps. This one barely even stays closed off for 3 hours straight. I will be rooting hard for a big event, but to dismiss BL issues out of hand is a huge mistake, imo. When I lived in N.C., I vowed to never be burned by that again. Somebody under a WSW is going to end up with a bunch of rain and slop from this event -- hopefully nobody on this board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM map looks good for NC. Looks like 4 to 6 for most of the state, and a couple of pockets of 6 to 9. 5 to 7 for Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 I just looked at the SREF individual panels. They are glorious. More are showing a more tilted/closed off s/w and pulling the heavier precip shield further north. Several are showing the sfc low centered over S GA then off the GA/SE coast. The more the s/w holds its own and possibly closes off, the farther west the precip will be as the low moves off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Hi-Res NAM has 7 to 10 for Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think GSP is very wise to be cautious on this storm. I also think it's a mistake to assume because there were temp busts in recent weeks on CAD events that the same will happen on this storm. This system is totally different -- not a CAD event, it's a dynamic cooling event. I would submit that for every March 1 cutoff low thundersnow bomb that there are 10 events where dynamic cooling did not pan out. I remember multi-contour closed lows that still didn't do the trick with marginal BL temps. This one barely even stays closed off for 3 hours straight. I will be rooting hard for a big event, but to dismiss BL issues out of hand is a huge mistake, imo. When I lived in N.C., I vowed to never be burned by that again. Somebody under a WSW is going to end up with a bunch of rain and slop from this event -- hopefully nobody on this board! Yeah if GSP is concerned, then I'm concerned a little too. Maybe I'm being optimistic in thinking we will be ok temp wise. I think I would be more worried if I were around Greenwood or Newberry. I'm hoping the NAM is wrong in getting our highs up to 45 before the storm. Would like to see that trend about 5° cooler for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think GSP is very wise to be cautious on this storm. I also think it's a mistake to assume because there were temp busts in recent weeks on CAD events that the same will happen on this storm. This system is totally different -- not a CAD event, it's a dynamic cooling event. I would submit that for every March 1 cutoff low thundersnow bomb that there are 10 events where dynamic cooling did not pan out. I remember multi-contour closed lows that still didn't do the trick with marginal BL temps. This one barely even stays closed off for 3 hours straight. I will be rooting hard for a big event, but to dismiss BL issues out of hand is a huge mistake, imo. When I lived in N.C., I vowed to never be burned by that again. Somebody under a WSW is going to end up with a bunch of rain and slop from this event -- hopefully nobody on this board! Great point and good to see you post Skip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Dare I see HP over the NE moving in? (one of the sref members which ends up putting down >2" of qpf across the the piedmont... lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This is HPC's current thinking. Relativity matches most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 ^^ Wow, that would be extremely nice, Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This is HPC's current thinking. Relativity matches most guidance. Perfect track for a N GA snowstorm. I doubt you could draw a better track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Dare I see HP over the NE moving in? (one of the sref members which ends up putting down >2" of qpf across the the piedmont... lol) That must have been the member that had me over 18" Would be nice to get any kind of HP to move in to give us a little CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18Z RGEM at 54 hours...ptype maps not in yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Dare I see HP over the NE moving in? (one of the sref members which ends up putting down >2" of qpf across the the piedmont... lol) That would be a game changer. Totally different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Dare I see HP over the NE moving in? (one of the sref members which ends up putting down >2" of qpf across the the piedmont... lol) Can we classify this a "weenie" map. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigKingDaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18Z RGEM at 54 hours...ptype maps not in yet Oh that 1022 H sitting up there. Umm, yes please..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I want to say their maps tend to be heavily GFS based, its a dirty rumor but one I often see spread around, you can argue based on those at least its true. yeah if they are basing it off the gfs, then i can certainly see that. I don't get too worked up over what they forecast since in terms of winter storms here, they often will miss it. i just think based on models as a whole, those props are a bit low. We'll see. I think they use a blend of 57 members I don't think it's biased towards the GFS...only one run of the OP and GEFS are used. Also, 5 randomly selected GEFS members...if they are random big dogs in there it would skew it big time I suppose...wonder what the weight for each is? A multi-model ensemble is utilized to create a distribution of values around the WPC accumulation at each grid point. The typical constituency of this ensemble is as follows: 21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members 25 ECMWF ensemble members, randomly selected 1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run 1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run 1 European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) latest operational run 1 Canadian Model (CMC) latest operational run 1 ECMWF latest ensemble mean 1 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) latest ensemble mean (6-h SLRs) 5 NCEP GEFS members, randomly selected ___ 57 Total members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I still think this one has BOOM OR BUST written all over it... TV is being pretty conservative at this point, for good reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This is HPC's current thinking. Relativity matches most guidance. ^^ Wow, that would be extremely nice, Wow. Still way too much spread off the coast to make me comfortable...that is a LOT of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Perfect track for a N GA snowstorm. I doubt you could draw a better track. yup!! This one has me going all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Austinwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Seeing the RGEM agree with the other models is the most encouraging thing I've seen, imho. It really is a good track for most of us. Thanks for your input down here, SnowGoose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is trending opposite of every other model. LOL weaker and farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Courtesy Of Brad Panovich: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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