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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Since there's nowhere else to put this, here is the portion of the RAH disco that pertains to the event. It probably won't make Brick happy.

THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND THUS THE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS NOT LIKELY TO SHIFT SIGNIFICANTLY...IT IS
LIKELY THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
WITH HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT CHANGES IN THE LOW
TRACK WILL RESULT IN CHANGES TO THE P-TYPE...DURATION...AND AMOUNTS.
THE LATEST GFS ANALYZES THE LOW FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF...
FAVORING LOWER RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW THAN
RAIN. SHOULD THE LOW TRACK BE FARTHER EAST IT WOULD FAVOR EVEN LESS
PRECIP. HOWEVER...A TRACK CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST WOULD FAVOR
MORE PRECIP BUT HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THAN SNOW. REGARDLESS...
CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST A NOT SO NICE 12-24 HOUR PERIOD AND AS OF
THE LATEST FORECAST EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN
THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S
WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 DEGREES SOUTH
WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.
TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURSDAY...WITH ALL
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST...
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. DESPITE THE LINGERING CLOUDS...
THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

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The most important part of the the GSP Afternoon Discussion outside of the mountains is:

FOR INSTANCE AT CLT...THERE IS A RANGE FROM OVER 10 INCHES

TO ESSENTIALLY A DUSTING WITH THE MEAN SOMEWHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OR

SO. THE CONCERN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL

BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AS MAX TEMPS

SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S WED AFTERNOON. ALSO...ALL THE COOLING

WILL BE BE MOSTLY DYNAMICALLY INDUCED WITH NO COLD HIGH SITUATED

DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SURFACE WET

BULBS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AT 00Z THU...

SLOWLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO

THE MID 30S SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY DURING WED NIGHT. IN THE

ABSENCE OF A WARM NOSE...SNOW GENERALLY OCCURS WHEN SURFACE WET BULB

TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 33 DEGREES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS A

GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEMDONT

WILL BE USED UP AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ALSO...WITH

THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN QUESTION... DO NOT PLAN ON ANY WINTER STORM

WATCH HEADLINES YET. IF THE THE LOWER GFS QPF WERE TO VERIFY...

WARNING LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST.

.... Gotta give it time to work N and NW a little more.

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I'm a bit worried about high temps but then I remember how badly the models busted on highs before last weeks event. 

Does anyone know what the cloud cover will look like tomorrow and Wednesday. that is what helped us bust to the low side last time. Plus the models seem to be 2-3 degrees to the warm side prior to events. 

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KAKQ isn't saying much which surprises me. Right now they are saying that it's going to pass to the south of us. I have a 30% chance of snow on Wednesday. When do they start to feel confident to start mentioning the possibility of a big snow? I understand that it's still a bit out right now as far as time is concerned. But they don't seem to have much to say about it. Maybe after tonight's models (if they continue the way they have) they will start talking more serious about it. 

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hopefully it doesn't trend any stronger or further north if you are in the atlanta to athens, greenwood, etc  as this run has this corridor right on the line for a period of time. This surge makes it to greenwood to lancaster. That said, IF the precip is as heavy as the nam shows, hell it looks like actual convection on it's radar imagery, dynamical cooling could offset the warm air advection for areas on the fence.

 

Doesn't look like there will be a wide area of transition which means  It will be a story of haves and have nots though since just north of this is where the heaviest snowfall will occur.

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I'm a bit worried about high temps but then I remember how badly the models busted on highs before last weeks event. 

Same here... surface temps dont look great, but then again, the models do frequently bust in situations like this. 

 

Would be nice if we could have that arctic air mass we had last week, and the track of this storm(does that ever happen???)

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that would be a cruel joke. The only NWS not going along yet is GSP is seems like. Most others in the SE are saying it is for real. We will see though. 

 

Yeah no joke.  Right now GSP is not touching this with a 10 ft pole.  It will be interesting to see where they stand later tonight and in the morning.

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WPC has good odds for a bunch of us seeing >4". 

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-02-23 at 3.56.27 PM.png

To me that forecast leaves a lot to be desired over northern ga, al, etc imho.

 

 

I'm a bit worried about high temps but then I remember how badly the models busted on highs before last weeks event. 

there is a bit of a difference though. There is not a lot of dry air to work with at the surface so I don't expect the models to bust nearly as much with surface temps.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING.

 

* EVENT...NUMBER ONE IS UNDERWAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH EVENT

  NUMBER TWO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 

* TIMING...OF EVENT NUMBER ONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY. TIMING

  OF EVENT NUMBER TWO WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

 

* LOCATION...FOR EVENT NUMBER ONE WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND

  NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO ANNISTON LINE.

  LOCATION FOR EVENT NUMBER TWO WILL BE FROM PICKENS THROUGH

  SHELBY THROUGH RANDOLPH COUNTY.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...FOR EVENT NUMBER ONE WILL BE ONE INCH OF SNOW

  AND SLEET...AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

  ACCUMULATIONS FOR EVENT NUMBER TWO WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

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To me that forecast leaves a lot to be desired over northern ga, al, etc imho.

 

 

there is a bit of a difference though. There is not a lot of dry air to work with at the surface so I don't expect the models to bust nearly as much with surface temps.

 

That is Day 3, I bet day 2 is more geared towards AL/GA

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To me that forecast leaves a lot to be desired over northern ga, al, etc imho.

 

 

there is a bit of a difference though. There is not a lot of dry air to work with at the surface so I don't expect the models to bust nearly as much with surface temps.

This map is a more relevant forecast period for the rest of the board:

prb_24hsnow_ge04_2015022400f066.gif

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i was referring to their entire 2 to 3 day forecast. I think odds are a good bit higher than what they are indicating day 2 as well..unless they are thinking 5 to 1 ratios or something lol

 

I want to say their maps tend to be heavily GFS based, its a dirty rumor but one I often see spread around, you can argue based on those at least its true.

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