Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Since there's nowhere else to put this, here is the portion of the RAH disco that pertains to the event. It probably won't make Brick happy.THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW THATDEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.COAST AND THUS THE CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THATTHE TRACK OF THE LOW IS NOT LIKELY TO SHIFT SIGNIFICANTLY...IT ISLIKELY THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAYNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOWACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT CHANGES IN THE LOWTRACK WILL RESULT IN CHANGES TO THE P-TYPE...DURATION...AND AMOUNTS.THE LATEST GFS ANALYZES THE LOW FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF...FAVORING LOWER RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW THANRAIN. SHOULD THE LOW TRACK BE FARTHER EAST IT WOULD FAVOR EVEN LESSPRECIP. HOWEVER...A TRACK CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COAST WOULD FAVORMORE PRECIP BUT HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN THAN SNOW. REGARDLESS...CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST A NOT SO NICE 12-24 HOUR PERIOD AND AS OFTHE LATEST FORECAST EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES INTHE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER40S WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 DEGREES SOUTHWITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURESWILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURSDAY...WITH ALLLINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING THURSDAYEVENING/NIGHT. THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. DESPITE THE LINGERING CLOUDS...THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THELOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The most important part of the the GSP Afternoon Discussion outside of the mountains is: FOR INSTANCE AT CLT...THERE IS A RANGE FROM OVER 10 INCHES TO ESSENTIALLY A DUSTING WITH THE MEAN SOMEWHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OR SO. THE CONCERN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING AS MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 40S WED AFTERNOON. ALSO...ALL THE COOLING WILL BE BE MOSTLY DYNAMICALLY INDUCED WITH NO COLD HIGH SITUATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. IN FACT...A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS SURFACE WET BULBS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SHOW MID TO UPPER 30S AT 00Z THU... SLOWLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT TO THE MID 30S SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY DURING WED NIGHT. IN THE ABSENCE OF A WARM NOSE...SNOW GENERALLY OCCURS WHEN SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 33 DEGREES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEMDONT WILL BE USED UP AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. ALSO...WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF IN QUESTION... DO NOT PLAN ON ANY WINTER STORM WATCH HEADLINES YET. IF THE THE LOWER GFS QPF WERE TO VERIFY... WARNING LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. .... Gotta give it time to work N and NW a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm a bit worried about high temps but then I remember how badly the models busted on highs before last weeks event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm a bit worried about high temps but then I remember how badly the models busted on highs before last weeks event. If we have an overcast day, that will help. But if the sun is out all day and then the clouds roll out in the evening, that would be the worst situation possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm a bit worried about high temps but then I remember how badly the models busted on highs before last weeks event. Does anyone know what the cloud cover will look like tomorrow and Wednesday. that is what helped us bust to the low side last time. Plus the models seem to be 2-3 degrees to the warm side prior to events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngieMarie Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 KAKQ isn't saying much which surprises me. Right now they are saying that it's going to pass to the south of us. I have a 30% chance of snow on Wednesday. When do they start to feel confident to start mentioning the possibility of a big snow? I understand that it's still a bit out right now as far as time is concerned. But they don't seem to have much to say about it. Maybe after tonight's models (if they continue the way they have) they will start talking more serious about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WPC has good odds for a bunch of us seeing >4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If we have an overcast day, that will help. But if the sun is out all day and then the clouds roll out in the evening, that would be the worst situation possible. Well, looks like we have a shot at some snow tomorrow. Maybe the clouds will hang around and linger into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 hopefully it doesn't trend any stronger or further north if you are in the atlanta to athens, greenwood, etc as this run has this corridor right on the line for a period of time. This surge makes it to greenwood to lancaster. That said, IF the precip is as heavy as the nam shows, hell it looks like actual convection on it's radar imagery, dynamical cooling could offset the warm air advection for areas on the fence. Doesn't look like there will be a wide area of transition which means It will be a story of haves and have nots though since just north of this is where the heaviest snowfall will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm a bit worried about high temps but then I remember how badly the models busted on highs before last weeks event. Same here... surface temps dont look great, but then again, the models do frequently bust in situations like this. Would be nice if we could have that arctic air mass we had last week, and the track of this storm(does that ever happen???) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigKingDaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 that would be a cruel joke. The only NWS not going along yet is GSP is seems like. Most others in the SE are saying it is for real. We will see though. Yeah no joke. Right now GSP is not touching this with a 10 ft pole. It will be interesting to see where they stand later tonight and in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NWS Wakefield is giving central Virginia Beach 4.5" of snow from overnight Wednesday thru noon on Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WPC has good odds for a bunch of us seeing >4". Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 3.56.27 PM.png To me that forecast leaves a lot to be desired over northern ga, al, etc imho. I'm a bit worried about high temps but then I remember how badly the models busted on highs before last weeks event. there is a bit of a difference though. There is not a lot of dry air to work with at the surface so I don't expect the models to bust nearly as much with surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What could go wrong for folks in NC? The GFS is correct Temperatures are too warm for snow Qpf dries up Not trying to be a Debbie Downer but it seems to work the last time when we had the event on the 6th to talk about what could go wrong a few days before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Well, looks like we have a shot at some snow tomorrow. Maybe the clouds will hang around and linger into Wednesday. If IF we luck into a couple of inches of snow tomorrow, that should help with the Wednesday temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * EVENT...NUMBER ONE IS UNDERWAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH EVENT NUMBER TWO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...OF EVENT NUMBER ONE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY. TIMING OF EVENT NUMBER TWO WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. * LOCATION...FOR EVENT NUMBER ONE WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO ANNISTON LINE. LOCATION FOR EVENT NUMBER TWO WILL BE FROM PICKENS THROUGH SHELBY THROUGH RANDOLPH COUNTY. * ACCUMULATIONS...FOR EVENT NUMBER ONE WILL BE ONE INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET...AND LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS FOR EVENT NUMBER TWO WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Does anyone know what the cloud cover will look like tomorrow and Wednesday. that is what helped us bust to the low side last time. Plus the models seem to be 2-3 degrees to the warm side prior to events. For our area overcast because of the stalled out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WPC has good odds for a bunch of us seeing >4". Wonder why they pulled NGA out of the crosshatch this time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 To me that forecast leaves a lot to be desired over northern ga, al, etc imho. there is a bit of a difference though. There is not a lot of dry air to work with at the surface so I don't expect the models to bust nearly as much with surface temps. That is Day 3, I bet day 2 is more geared towards AL/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Temps aren't going to be a problem if that low closes off and stays closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 To me that forecast leaves a lot to be desired over northern ga, al, etc imho. there is a bit of a difference though. There is not a lot of dry air to work with at the surface so I don't expect the models to bust nearly as much with surface temps. This map is a more relevant forecast period for the rest of the board: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 To me that forecast leaves a lot to be desired over northern ga, al, etc imho. Expressing uncertainty given climatology that far south in February is probably a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 And here is day 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That is Day 3, I bet day 2 is more geared towards AL/GA i was referring to their entire 2 to 3 day forecast. I think odds are a good bit higher than what they are indicating day 2 as well..unless they are thinking 5 to 1 ratios or something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If IF we luck into a couple of inches of snow tomorrow, that should help with the Wednesday temps. Wait, there is the potential for snow on Tuesday here? I thought that was off the table days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Expressing uncertainty given climatology that far south in February is probably a good idea. climo doesn't mean crap when forecasting in the now. climo says that a lot of things shouldn't happen that do or vise versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wait, there is the potential for snow on Tuesday here? I thought that was off the table days ago. Models are showing a little bit for tomorrow now. Like 1 to 2 inches at most. Hopefully, it can help even if it is just a little bit to keep the temps down for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 i was referring to their entire 2 to 3 day forecast. I think odds are a good bit higher than what they are indicating day 2 as well..unless they are thinking 5 to 1 ratios or something lol I want to say their maps tend to be heavily GFS based, its a dirty rumor but one I often see spread around, you can argue based on those at least its true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Models are showing a little bit for tomorrow now. Like 1 to 2 inches at most. Hopefully, it can help even if it is just a little bit to keep the temps down for Wednesday. What's the time frame on this for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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