CaryWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Come on Brick--January 2000? I lived through that one in Cary. Nope, not buying it. However unsettled week coming up for sure. We pop a closed off storm and things could be very different from what is being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Come on Brick--January 2000? I lived through that one in Cary. Nope, not buying it. However unsettled week coming up for sure. We pop a closed off storm and things could be very different from what is being modeled. Yeah, not saying that is happening. Just saying like others have that we had some small events before the big one in a short amount of time, and next week could be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Funny part is that we have back to back gulf low threats. That happens like, neverI remember two big ones within a week. That was about 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 gfs ticked ever so slightly northwest with the precip monday, rdu right on the line for minimal precip/snow. has come north (slightly) every run today from 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 not gonna do it for weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 not gonna do it for weds. But it's colder no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 But it's colder no doubtSupressed or nothing , I can't see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Supressed or nothing , I can't see? It's still suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Supressed or nothing , I can't see?same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Weekend storm looks suppressed on the 00z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Weekend storm looks suppressed on the 00z GFS... Weekend storm or Thursday storm? "Weekend storm" big hit for eastern NC...it's actually a Friday storm...not like it matters...all attention should be on the Thursday system as it's likely the weekend system will change a billion times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The weekend storm is a completely different solution vs precious GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We're getting inside that infamous GFS storm shadow (Days 5-6)...that would be in regards to next weekend's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We're getting inside that infamous GFS storm shadow (Days 5-6)...that would be in regards to next weekend's event. We're apparently also inside the 2 day storm shadow for the Tuesday storm and the 4 day shadow for the Thursday one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The ukie will be out In a few. Hopefully someone with a PhD can interpret it for us , since we'll all be snoring when the finer details come out. Interested to see if it puts down the 6 inch white carpet from charlotte to Durham and points nw again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The ukie will be out In a few. Hopefully someone with a PhD can interpret it for us , since we'll all be snoring when the finer details come out. Interested to see if it puts down the 6 inch white carpet from charlotte to Durham and points nw again. I think most are more concerned with what happens south and east of that line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well here is the NavGEM at 96 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think most are more concerned with what happens south and east of that line! Not me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well here is the NavGEM at 96 hours... image is blank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think most are more concerned with what happens south and east of that line! LOL, I'll be one of em in 10 mins probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The NAVGEM looks a little warm for most, but it's still there, so that's good. I'm not sure about the UKMET. It's out on Meteocentre, but hr 96 and hr 120 are the only panels out and it's hard to see what happens in between (would be nice to have the hr 108 panel). It would be nice if the GFS would jump onboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 image is blank?It ain't blank, that's a whiteout for you back yard your seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The NAVGEM looks a little warm for most, but it's still there, so that's good. I'm not sure about the UKMET. It's out on Meteocentre, but hr 96 and hr 120 are the only panels out and it's hard to see what happens in between (would be nice to have the hr 108 panel). It would be nice if the GFS would jump onboard... I would be far more worried at this range if the GFS was showing a nice tracking coastal. Not a single event all winter for anyone in the east had been correct at 96-108 hours out. If it does catch on would want it to start inside 72 hours. I may be embellishing a little...but just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The upcoming week feels a lot like Jan 2000. We had a period of a couple weeks where we had multiple threats but tough to nail down the timing of the SW's. It was not a question of if but when we were going to get the big dog here in upstate SC. Instead we only ended up with a couple of weenie dogs while those south of 85 got Great Daned. As I recall, the Carolina Crusher really only crystalized about 12 hours before it hit. Hope we see a widespread SE event this week but if not I feel someone is in for a surprise before next Saturday. Should be a fun week.... Yeah you are right about that. I was living in Greenwood then and we got a good foot of snow beginning early that morning after getting heavy rain all night. It was a complete surprise for our area. It was a now casting event up until about lunch time and by then we had about 4 inches and they were calling for 4 to 6 more from then on. About one foot I measured in my yard right before nightfall. The only thing I didn't like about it was that we didn't have two or three days before it to get excited about it, but it was great anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I would be far more worried at this range if the GFS was showing a nice tracking coastal. Not a single event all winter for anyone in the east had been correct at 96-108 hours out. If it does catch on would want it to start inside 72 hours. I may be embellishing a little...but just a little. Agree pack...Look at Monday for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The NAVGEM looks a little warm for most, but it's still there, so that's good. I'm not sure about the UKMET. It's out on Meteocentre, but hr 96 and hr 120 are the only panels out and it's hard to see what happens in between (would be nice to have the hr 108 panel). It would be nice if the GFS would jump onboard... The UKMET has something from 60-72 in AL/GA similar to the NAM....the GFS/NavGEM have nothing in that window while the GGEM sort of hints at it but is more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 image is blank?Click on the link, go through the rigamarole to say that you understand the risks and proceed. The site's certificate is expired or otherwise messed up. Good going, government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I would be far more worried at this range if the GFS was showing a nice tracking coastal. Not a single event all winter for anyone in the east had been correct at 96-108 hours out. If it does catch on would want it to start inside 72 hours. I may be embellishing a little...but just a little. Looks like the Canadian is south again, too, though different than last run in its timing. EDIT: Well, it tries to get things together late and throws some of NC a flizzard party. The UKMET has something from 60-72 in AL/GA similar to the NAM....the GFS/NavGEM have nothing in that window while the GGEM sort of hints at it but is more south Ah, yes... I can't believe all the uncertainty with events just a few days out. It's crazy to have one model showing 6"+ within 4 days while another model shows hardly any storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The SREF is pretty impressive for eastern NC on Tuesday for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 With the GFS suppressed for next weekend, watch tonight's Euro hone in on something...seems to work every time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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