Artie Fufkin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That didn't seem encouraging at all. I read it as saying this is currently modeled to be a minor event with most of it rain....never really going below freezing... I read it as saying they're looking at the same models we are, but since temps are borderline and since they don't have to declare any watches/warnings right now, they're punting to the evening shift. Classic gubmint strategy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I wouldn't worry yet, they are just being level headed and conservative. There is no huge rush to put out watches so I think you will see them come around late tonight or sometime tomorrow. Assuming the models don't change drastically. Bumped precip chances to 90%- thats a positive sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That didn't seem encouraging at all. I read it as saying this is currently modeled to be a minor event with most of it rain....never really going below freezing... They're playing it conservative with time to issue WSW tomorrow. According to the discussion, areas north of I85 in SC are in good shape. There are some excellent forecasters at KGSP but you have to remember each shift has a different team and each one has a different philosophy. I didn't read anything in their comments but caution at this point. That's about all you can ask for outside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 hr 54 on the nam has snow in N GA. Looking promising. EDIT: Low in the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 hr 54 on the nam has snow in N GA. Looking promising. The s/w is further west and close to closing off. Precip will be further north and/or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 They're playing it conservative with time to issue WSW tomorrow. According to the discussion, areas north of I85 in SC are in good shape. There are some excellent forecasters at KGSP but you have to remember each shift has a different team and each one has a different philosophy. I didn't read anything in their comments but caution at this point. That's about all you can ask for outside of 36 hours. When you say in good shape what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 hr 54 on the nam has snow in N GA. Looking promising. EDIT: Low in the FL panhandle. Looks a little more negatively tilted at hr 48. Interesting run on tap, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM CRUSHES I-20 North in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF Plumes just jumped THREE INCHES and we're freaking worried? Christ on a pogo stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Noticing a trend to an inverted trough over E TN as we go for a closed off low. Welcome, Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It'll be interesting to see the next round of snowfall accum probabilities from WPC. They are updated from this probabilities posted this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think we have to pay close attention to how warm we're likely to get on Wednesday. In CAD situations, which this is not, models tend to overestimate temps and the power of evaporational cooling. In these situations, where cold air is arriving in concert with the storm, it is usually slower than the models indicate. How many times do we have to see this play out before we take it as a serious concern? The cold air not being in place already is bothersome and is likely going to be the primary reason that totals are less than we are currently expecting/hoping for. Not trying to be a negative nancy, but we need to be on alert for this. Regarding the concern of the cold air arriving with the storm, Brad tweeted that the storm was going to bring its own cold air with it, upping the chances that it will snow. https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/569895530165178368 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The Upstate and CLT look great on the Nam for now. Time for the NW trend to stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The Upstate and CLT look great on the Nam for now. Time for the NW trend to stop? We look great, too. Woof from hr 57 to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The NAM gets the 1" QPF line almost to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 @burgar - Are you concerned about how the GFS hasn't really started trending with EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Regarding the concern of the cold air arriving with the storm, Brad tweeted that the storm was going to bring its own cold air with it, upping the chances that it will snow. https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/569895530165178368 Should provide mid and upper level cold. We need to make sure the boundary layer is sufficiently cool as well. Temps in the mid/upper 30s when the precip starts will probably be fine. But if we're cooking in the 40s, we could eat up an awful lot of precious QPF before the switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Seems a little slower and more tucked in to the coast before scooting out. Probably due to the trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks lie 4-8": across N. GA from ATL northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nam looks close to the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 @burgar - Are you concerned about how the GFS hasn't really started trending with EURO? Nope NAM is leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF Plumes just jumped THREE INCHES and we're freaking worried? Christ on a pogo stick. We just don't believe this winter trended to something like this....if this trends away from us or turns into a rain fest for most, people will just ask to be banned because they're never model watching again. Huge event coming if all of these models aren't playing an early April fools on the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We just don't believe this winter trended to something like this....if this trends away from us or turns into a rain fest for most, people will just ask to be banned because they're never model watching again. Huge event coming if all of these models aren't playing an early April fools on the SE. that would be a cruel joke. The only NWS not going along yet is GSP is seems like. Most others in the SE are saying it is for real. We will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think we have to pay close attention to how warm we're likely to get on Wednesday. In CAD situations, which this is not, models tend to overestimate temps and the power of evaporational cooling. In these situations, where cold air is arriving in concert with the storm, it is usually slower than the models indicate. How many times do we have to see this play out before we take it as a serious concern? The cold air not being in place already is bothersome and is likely going to be the primary reason that totals are less than we are currently expecting/hoping for. Not trying to be a negative nancy, but we need to be on alert for this. I agree. Rain to snow events always underperform....unless perhaps it's a strong upper level low, but even those seem to take longer to get cold than desired. They usually don't get below freezining either. If we do get in the mid 40s on wednesday I'm not sure we'll get much accumulation at all in the s. piedmont, except some token slush on the grass and cars. Unless I start to see some modeling getting colder at the surface, I'm reallly going to lower my expectations here. It's a shame we couldn't keep that look a few days ago where we had a great high up in NY creating a wedge. http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2015/02/23/5533964/charlotte-area-will-see-snow-wednesday.html#.VOuPMC7ko80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 FFC thinking about issuing a WSW tomorrow. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...BIG CONCERN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW POTENTIALACROSS MAINLY N GA. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE TOOK A SMALL BUT DECIDEDLYSIMILAR SHIFT NORTH WITH QPF WED/WED NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF AND 15Z SREFQUITE OMINOUS WITH QPF. GFS STARTING TO APPEAR AS A SOUTHERNOUTLIER. IF QPF WERE CONVERTED TO SNOW...COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHESOVER MUCH OF NORTH HALF OF CWA. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BENEEDED AND IF SO WOULD BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY PARTLY TO MINIMIZECONFUSION WITH EVENT TONIGHT.OUTSIDE OF GRIDS WED/WED NIGHT...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONGTERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Should provide mid and upper level cold. We need to make sure the boundary layer is sufficiently cool as well. Temps in the mid/upper 30s when the precip starts will probably be fine. But if we're cooking in the 40s, we could eat up an awful lot of precious QPF before the switch. THIS!!! especially south of I 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks lie 4-8": across N. GA from ATL northward. Amounts actually down a bit ITP, but North AL, Rome, and the northern ATL exurbs get crushed. Not great for me and Larry here in Dunwoody compared to this morning, but still 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 The NAM gets the 1" QPF line almost to CLT. maybe more like rock hill... just past CLT north it's half of that. regardless the trend is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 IF QPF WERE CONVERTED TO SNOW...COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHESOVER MUCH OF NORTH HALF OF CWA. Interesting regarding ratios. Should be much higher than that. I wonder if they're assuming we lose a lot of qpf before the changeover, or they're just staying conservative until reality presents itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 maybe more like rock hill... just past CLT north it's half of that. regardless the trend is still there. Looks like ~ .5 for RDU as well with greater amounts as you go south and east. I'll gladly take that and congratulate folks SE of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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