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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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That didn't seem encouraging at all. I read it as saying this is currently modeled to be a minor event with most of it rain....never really going below freezing...

I read it as saying they're looking at the same models we are, but since temps are borderline and since they don't have to declare any watches/warnings right now, they're punting to the evening shift. Classic gubmint strategy...

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That didn't seem encouraging at all. I read it as saying this is currently modeled to be a minor event with most of it rain....never really going below freezing...

They're playing it conservative with time to issue WSW tomorrow. According to the discussion, areas north of I85 in SC are in good shape. There are some excellent forecasters at KGSP but you have to remember each shift has a different team and each one has a different philosophy. I didn't read anything in their comments but caution at this point. That's about all you can ask for outside of 36 hours.

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They're playing it conservative with time to issue WSW tomorrow. According to the discussion, areas north of I85 in SC are in good shape. There are some excellent forecasters at KGSP but you have to remember each shift has a different team and each one has a different philosophy. I didn't read anything in their comments but caution at this point. That's about all you can ask for outside of 36 hours.

When you say in good shape what do you mean?

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I think we have to pay close attention to how warm we're likely to get on Wednesday. In CAD situations, which this is not, models tend to overestimate temps and the power of evaporational cooling. In these situations, where cold air is arriving in concert with the storm, it is usually slower than the models indicate. How many times do we have to see this play out before we take it as a serious concern? The cold air not being in place already is bothersome and is likely going to be the primary reason that totals are less than we are currently expecting/hoping for. Not trying to be a negative nancy, but we need to be on alert for this.

Regarding the concern of the cold air arriving with the storm, Brad tweeted that the storm was going to bring its own cold air with it, upping the chances that it will snow. https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/569895530165178368

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Regarding the concern of the cold air arriving with the storm, Brad tweeted that the storm was going to bring its own cold air with it, upping the chances that it will snow. https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/569895530165178368

Should provide mid and upper level cold. We need to make sure the boundary layer is sufficiently cool as well. Temps in the mid/upper 30s when the precip starts will probably be fine. But if we're cooking in the 40s, we could eat up an awful lot of precious QPF before the switch.

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SREF Plumes just jumped THREE INCHES and we're freaking worried? Christ on a pogo stick.

We just don't believe this winter trended to something like this....if this trends away from us or turns into a rain fest for most, people will just ask to be banned because they're never model watching again. Huge event coming if all of these models aren't playing an early April fools on the SE.

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We just don't believe this winter trended to something like this....if this trends away from us or turns into a rain fest for most, people will just ask to be banned because they're never model watching again. Huge event coming if all of these models aren't playing an early April fools on the SE.

that would be a cruel joke. The only NWS not going along yet is GSP is seems like. Most others in the SE are saying it is for real. We will see though. 

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I think we have to pay close attention to how warm we're likely to get on Wednesday. In CAD situations, which this is not, models tend to overestimate temps and the power of evaporational cooling. In these situations, where cold air is arriving in concert with the storm, it is usually slower than the models indicate. How many times do we have to see this play out before we take it as a serious concern? The cold air not being in place already is bothersome and is likely going to be the primary reason that totals are less than we are currently expecting/hoping for. Not trying to be a negative nancy, but we need to be on alert for this.

 

I agree.  Rain to snow events always underperform....unless perhaps it's a strong upper level low, but even those seem to take longer to get cold than desired.  They usually don't get below freezining either.  If we do get in the mid 40s on wednesday I'm not sure we'll get much accumulation at all in the s. piedmont, except some token slush on the grass and cars. 

 

Unless I start to see some modeling getting colder at the surface, I'm reallly going to lower my expectations here.  It's a shame we couldn't keep that look a few days ago where we had a great high up in NY creating a wedge. 

 

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2015/02/23/5533964/charlotte-area-will-see-snow-wednesday.html#.VOuPMC7ko80

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FFC thinking about issuing a WSW tomorrow.

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG CONCERN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW POTENTIAL
ACROSS MAINLY N GA. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE TOOK A SMALL BUT DECIDEDLY
SIMILAR SHIFT NORTH WITH QPF WED/WED NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF AND 15Z SREF
QUITE OMINOUS WITH QPF. GFS STARTING TO APPEAR AS A SOUTHERN
OUTLIER. IF QPF WERE CONVERTED TO SNOW...COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER MUCH OF NORTH HALF OF CWA. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED AND IF SO WOULD BE ISSUED ON TUESDAY PARTLY TO MINIMIZE
CONFUSION WITH EVENT TONIGHT.


OUTSIDE OF GRIDS WED/WED NIGHT...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG
TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

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