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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Reality is our area could see between 0-8" I think 2-4" is a good call right now with the possibility of much more or a lot less.

 

2-4" does seem more logical.  Just depends on precip rates and if you happen to get under the deformation band.

 

Either way, some snow on Wednesday does seem likely.  Really curious to see what FFC says in their afternoon discussion.

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2-4" does seem more logical.  Just depends on precip rates and if you happen to get under the deformation band.

 

Either way, some snow on Wednesday does seem likely.  Really curious to see what FFC says in their afternoon discussion.

 

I was told they were not impressed at all south of the far NRN areas of GA as of early this AM but they may have changed their minds since.

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Good call as it stands now. 

I also agree that this could majorly over perform for many. This is based off the models WPC is leaning towards..

Now plenty on time before game time so a lot can change either way.

 

I feel like a safe bet is going to be 3-6 for most of NC and heavier amounts possible from GSP to east of CLT. I feel like this will over perform for many.

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it still isn't worth the bytes it's printed with. i know people love to look at them but man they are bad most of the time.

Every method has its weaknesses. My thinking would be to blend the two. However people who do make it down to freezing will likely be near 10:1 ratios those that see snow will temps around 33 or 34 will see slightly less ratios of course. The best way to forecast snow accumulations is to diagnose ratios sing a sounding then combine those with QPF. 

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I was told they were not impressed at all south of the far NRN areas of GA as of early this AM but they may have changed their minds since.

 

FFC (in my experience & opinion) has typically always gone with a "better safe than sorry" approach.  I've seen them be the last to latch on to a storm, or the last to issue warnings or advisories.  I'm curious to see if they're buying the model output this morning & early this afternoon.  I certainly don't expect them to call for 2-4" for the metro or I-20 corridor today, mainly because there's a possible shot at precip with an impulse passing by tonight that could squeeze out a dusting to an inch around ATL.  AND-they're still stinging a bit (I think) from January 28th last year.

 

Again, could very well be wrong (and I probably am) But as I always say, that's why I work in Finance & not Atmospheric Science.

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Update from WPC with all the 12z runs in...

...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARPTROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AWAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSSINGNORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET AND ESPECIALLYTHE 12Z NAM HAVE BOTH TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE THEMOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF ALL THE MODELS. THE 12Z GFS FOR ITSPART IS THE FLATTEST/WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 12Z GEM IS ALSO RATHERFLAT AND CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF SPLITS THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FLATTER AND STRONGER CAMPS...AND HAS SOLIDSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER THE 12Z ECMWFSOLUTION AT THIS POINT.
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FFC (in my experience & opinion) has typically always gone with a "better safe than sorry" approach.  I've seen them be the last to latch on to a storm, or the last to issue warnings or advisories.  I'm curious to see if they're buying the model output this morning & early this afternoon.  I certainly don't expect them to call for 2-4" for the metro or I-20 corridor today, mainly because there's a possible shot at precip with an impulse passing by tonight that could squeeze out a dusting to an inch around ATL.  AND-they're still stinging a bit (I think) from January 28th last year.

 

Again, could very well be wrong (and I probably am) But as I always say, that's why I work in Finance & not Atmospheric Science.

 

Sometimes in a situation like this they do not like having dual headlines out, an advisory for tomorrow AM and a watch for Wednesday into Thursday can confuse people but given its an area not very snow experienced they would likely make an exception.

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FFC (in my experience & opinion) has typically always gone with a "better safe than sorry" approach. I've seen them be the last to latch on to a storm, or the last to issue warnings or advisories. I'm curious to see if they're buying the model output this morning & early this afternoon. I certainly don't expect them to call for 2-4" for the metro or I-20 corridor today, mainly because there's a possible shot at precip with an impulse passing by tonight that could squeeze out a dusting to an inch around ATL. AND-they're still stinging a bit (I think) from January 28th last year.

Again, could very well be wrong (and I probably am) But as I always say, that's why I work in Finance & not Atmospheric Science.

I agree that was FFC's M.O. In the past, but I think they've changed a lot since Snowmageddon. Seems like I see rain/snow mix or wintry mix in my point forecast a lot more than I used to and who can blame them? Having said that, it's a little surprisig they've been so dismissive of this event up to now given the relative model consensus. I'm guessing this will have their full attention starting this afternoon...
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Here is ECMWF output for ATL...shows you how fickle this is, within 1C of 0C everywhere...surface temps on left, 850 on right followed by surface pressure, surface RH, QPF,

 

WED 21Z 25-FEB   1.2     0.5    1012      95     100    0.24     559     549   
THU 00Z 26-FEB   0.7     1.1    1010      99     100    0.53     558     550   
THU 03Z 26-FEB   0.7     0.1    1011      99      99    0.14     555     546   
THU 06Z 26-FEB   0.6     0.5    1011      98      93    0.24     553     545   
 

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I agree that was FFC's M.O. In the past, but I think they've changed a lot since Snowmageddon. Seems like I see rain/snow mix or wintry mix in my point forecast a lot more than I used to and who can blame them? Having said that, Iits a little surprisig they've been so dismissive of this event up to now given the relative model consensus. I'm guessing this will have their full attention starting this afternoon...

 

Very true, and I think alot of it has to say with what Goose mentioned above:  Having an advisory out for the event tonight and tomorrow AM, plus a watch for Wed PM/Thurs AM event is incredibly confusing.  The folks who are not as weather-inclined as the folks who read these types of boards would think that any WSWatch issued today would be for any precip that falls tonight.

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Update from WPC with all the 12z runs in...

...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARPTROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AWAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSSINGNORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET AND ESPECIALLYTHE 12Z NAM HAVE BOTH TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE THEMOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF ALL THE MODELS. THE 12Z GFS FOR ITSPART IS THE FLATTEST/WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 12Z GEM IS ALSO RATHERFLAT AND CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF SPLITS THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FLATTER AND STRONGER CAMPS...AND HAS SOLIDSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER THE 12Z ECMWFSOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

 

All hail King Euro/Dr. No

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Reality is our area could see between 0-8" I think 2-4" is a good call right now with the possibility of much more or a lot less.

This is a good call IMHO(seriously). I have actually been thinking just about the same thing as far as amounts for me. 2-4" looks like a decent bet. I could see a band setting to give some of us more, but I have also lived here long enough to see things go wrong in every way possible. Model consistency has been really good though.

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Euro is wetter too, close to 1" QPF fot CLT

Thanks Jeremy. Has the Euro scored well in the short range this season? I hope it is right for this one! I am seeing where the CLT area looks to get shafted (based on other model runs). Hoping we can pull off a significant snowfall out of this one! 

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If the upper low can go negative earlier you get more precip on the NW side. This is what the nam shows.

 

The models all want to sort of open the 500 feature as it begins to slightly turn the corner after MS/GA...I don't know if I buy that, it may not open, because from MS into TX the 500 feature has pretty good cold and snow with it

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Here is ECMWF output for ATL...shows you how fickle this is, within 1C of 0C everywhere...surface temps on left, 850 on right followed by surface pressure, surface RH, QPF,

 

WED 21Z 25-FEB   1.2     0.5    1012      95     100    0.24     559     549   

THU 00Z 26-FEB   0.7     1.1    1010      99     100    0.53     558     550   

THU 03Z 26-FEB   0.7     0.1    1011      99      99    0.14     555     546   

THU 06Z 26-FEB   0.6     0.5    1011      98      93    0.24     553     545   

 

 Im guessing that is KATL at the airport?

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The models all want to sort of open the 500 feature as it begins to slightly turn the corner after MS/GA...I don't know if I buy that, it may not open, because from MS into TX the 500 feature has pretty good cold and snow with it

Yea we're starting to get in the range where each run it says closed for longer.
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