LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Count me in & sign me up. I'm literally right under the "7" @ KPDK. Good lookin' run. Reality is our area could see between 0-8" I think 2-4" is a good call right now with the possibility of much more or a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 JMA sure is copious... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_96HR.gif Lots of pretty colors.... Give RDU between .75 & 1" precip. Not out of the realm of possibilities but definitely a high outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Reality is our area could see between 0-8" I think 2-4" is a good call right now with the possibility of much more or a lot less. 2-4" does seem more logical. Just depends on precip rates and if you happen to get under the deformation band. Either way, some snow on Wednesday does seem likely. Really curious to see what FFC says in their afternoon discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Despite a fairly cold surface, don't count on high ratios. The GFS sugguests below 10:1 ratios for Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 2-4" does seem more logical. Just depends on precip rates and if you happen to get under the deformation band. Either way, some snow on Wednesday does seem likely. Really curious to see what FFC says in their afternoon discussion. I was told they were not impressed at all south of the far NRN areas of GA as of early this AM but they may have changed their minds since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Good call as it stands now. I also agree that this could majorly over perform for many. This is based off the models WPC is leaning towards.. Now plenty on time before game time so a lot can change either way. I feel like a safe bet is going to be 3-6 for most of NC and heavier amounts possible from GSP to east of CLT. I feel like this will over perform for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 it still isn't worth the bytes it's printed with. i know people love to look at them but man they are bad most of the time. Every method has its weaknesses. My thinking would be to blend the two. However people who do make it down to freezing will likely be near 10:1 ratios those that see snow will temps around 33 or 34 will see slightly less ratios of course. The best way to forecast snow accumulations is to diagnose ratios sing a sounding then combine those with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 rumor has it that WSW will be hoisted for 1-20 corridor with afternoon packages....I agree with that move.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro looks like a good compromise forecast right now. T minus 42 hours before the RAP starts coming out and the hallucinations begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I was told they were not impressed at all south of the far NRN areas of GA as of early this AM but they may have changed their minds since. FFC (in my experience & opinion) has typically always gone with a "better safe than sorry" approach. I've seen them be the last to latch on to a storm, or the last to issue warnings or advisories. I'm curious to see if they're buying the model output this morning & early this afternoon. I certainly don't expect them to call for 2-4" for the metro or I-20 corridor today, mainly because there's a possible shot at precip with an impulse passing by tonight that could squeeze out a dusting to an inch around ATL. AND-they're still stinging a bit (I think) from January 28th last year. Again, could very well be wrong (and I probably am) But as I always say, that's why I work in Finance & not Atmospheric Science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro looks like a good compromise forecast right now. T minus 42 hours before the RAP starts coming out and the hallucinations begin That is the worst thing about an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Update from WPC with all the 12z runs in... ...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARPTROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AWAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSSINGNORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET AND ESPECIALLYTHE 12Z NAM HAVE BOTH TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE THEMOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF ALL THE MODELS. THE 12Z GFS FOR ITSPART IS THE FLATTEST/WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 12Z GEM IS ALSO RATHERFLAT AND CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF SPLITS THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FLATTER AND STRONGER CAMPS...AND HAS SOLIDSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER THE 12Z ECMWFSOLUTION AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 FFC (in my experience & opinion) has typically always gone with a "better safe than sorry" approach. I've seen them be the last to latch on to a storm, or the last to issue warnings or advisories. I'm curious to see if they're buying the model output this morning & early this afternoon. I certainly don't expect them to call for 2-4" for the metro or I-20 corridor today, mainly because there's a possible shot at precip with an impulse passing by tonight that could squeeze out a dusting to an inch around ATL. AND-they're still stinging a bit (I think) from January 28th last year. Again, could very well be wrong (and I probably am) But as I always say, that's why I work in Finance & not Atmospheric Science. Sometimes in a situation like this they do not like having dual headlines out, an advisory for tomorrow AM and a watch for Wednesday into Thursday can confuse people but given its an area not very snow experienced they would likely make an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm hard pressed to believe this misses us to the south. It hasn't all year so I don't know why it would start with one storm now. This was the second run in a row of the Euro to throw precip further N/W (despite the same track), so I don't think that's a huge concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That is the worst thing about an event. Yep, cant wait for the bust calls based on radar or storm fail for this and that...those last 12 hrs before it begins are gonna be hell for the mods Im thinking 4-8" here its been a while since I could type that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 FFC (in my experience & opinion) has typically always gone with a "better safe than sorry" approach. I've seen them be the last to latch on to a storm, or the last to issue warnings or advisories. I'm curious to see if they're buying the model output this morning & early this afternoon. I certainly don't expect them to call for 2-4" for the metro or I-20 corridor today, mainly because there's a possible shot at precip with an impulse passing by tonight that could squeeze out a dusting to an inch around ATL. AND-they're still stinging a bit (I think) from January 28th last year. Again, could very well be wrong (and I probably am) But as I always say, that's why I work in Finance & not Atmospheric Science. I agree that was FFC's M.O. In the past, but I think they've changed a lot since Snowmageddon. Seems like I see rain/snow mix or wintry mix in my point forecast a lot more than I used to and who can blame them? Having said that, it's a little surprisig they've been so dismissive of this event up to now given the relative model consensus. I'm guessing this will have their full attention starting this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here is ECMWF output for ATL...shows you how fickle this is, within 1C of 0C everywhere...surface temps on left, 850 on right followed by surface pressure, surface RH, QPF, WED 21Z 25-FEB 1.2 0.5 1012 95 100 0.24 559 549 THU 00Z 26-FEB 0.7 1.1 1010 99 100 0.53 558 550 THU 03Z 26-FEB 0.7 0.1 1011 99 99 0.14 555 546 THU 06Z 26-FEB 0.6 0.5 1011 98 93 0.24 553 545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This was the second run in a row of the Euro to throw precip further N/W (despite the same track), so I don't think that's a huge concern. That's a good catch james, and normally how these system work (a little more precip northwest than modeled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Update from WPC with all the 12z runs in... ... THE 12Z ECMWF SPLITS THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FLATTER AND STRONGER CAMPS...AND HAS SOLIDSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER THE 12Z ECMWFSOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I'll take the Euro all damn day for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree that was FFC's M.O. In the past, but I think they've changed a lot since Snowmageddon. Seems like I see rain/snow mix or wintry mix in my point forecast a lot more than I used to and who can blame them? Having said that, Iits a little surprisig they've been so dismissive of this event up to now given the relative model consensus. I'm guessing this will have their full attention starting this afternoon... Very true, and I think alot of it has to say with what Goose mentioned above: Having an advisory out for the event tonight and tomorrow AM, plus a watch for Wed PM/Thurs AM event is incredibly confusing. The folks who are not as weather-inclined as the folks who read these types of boards would think that any WSWatch issued today would be for any precip that falls tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Update from WPC with all the 12z runs in... ...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARPTROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AWAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSSINGNORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET AND ESPECIALLYTHE 12Z NAM HAVE BOTH TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE THEMOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF ALL THE MODELS. THE 12Z GFS FOR ITSPART IS THE FLATTEST/WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 12Z GEM IS ALSO RATHERFLAT AND CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF SPLITS THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FLATTER AND STRONGER CAMPS...AND HAS SOLIDSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER THE 12Z ECMWFSOLUTION AT THIS POINT. All hail King Euro/Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the upper low can go negative earlier you get more precip on the NW side. This is what the nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'll take Euro all damn day for us. Euro looked good for us burger. Column cools down with precip and sfc goes from upper 30's to 33 at saturation. Let's see where we go from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Reality is our area could see between 0-8" I think 2-4" is a good call right now with the possibility of much more or a lot less. This is a good call IMHO(seriously). I have actually been thinking just about the same thing as far as amounts for me. 2-4" looks like a decent bet. I could see a band setting to give some of us more, but I have also lived here long enough to see things go wrong in every way possible. Model consistency has been really good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro is wetter too, close to 1" QPF fot CLT Thanks Jeremy. Has the Euro scored well in the short range this season? I hope it is right for this one! I am seeing where the CLT area looks to get shafted (based on other model runs). Hoping we can pull off a significant snowfall out of this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the upper low can go negative earlier you get more precip on the NW side. This is what the nam shows. The models all want to sort of open the 500 feature as it begins to slightly turn the corner after MS/GA...I don't know if I buy that, it may not open, because from MS into TX the 500 feature has pretty good cold and snow with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 15Z SREF is much wetter. Can't wait for the plumes. 1" to RDU. 0.5" all the way to the NC/TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here is ECMWF output for ATL...shows you how fickle this is, within 1C of 0C everywhere...surface temps on left, 850 on right followed by surface pressure, surface RH, QPF, WED 21Z 25-FEB 1.2 0.5 1012 95 100 0.24 559 549 THU 00Z 26-FEB 0.7 1.1 1010 99 100 0.53 558 550 THU 03Z 26-FEB 0.7 0.1 1011 99 99 0.14 555 546 THU 06Z 26-FEB 0.6 0.5 1011 98 93 0.24 553 545 Im guessing that is KATL at the airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The models all want to sort of open the 500 feature as it begins to slightly turn the corner after MS/GA...I don't know if I buy that, it may not open, because from MS into TX the 500 feature has pretty good cold and snow with itYea we're starting to get in the range where each run it says closed for longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 15Z SREF is much wetter. Can't wait for the plumes. 1" past RDU. 0.5" all the way to the NC/TN border. The SREFs have had a north bias beyond 48 all winter on most storms I have followed...just sayin...before people in VA or MD get too happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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