packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 very similar to it's prior run. it might be a touch drier but it's within noise level range. It's nice to see more consistency with this system as opposed to the other ones this year. Yep, that's the 3rd run in a row virtually the same, small differences, the SLP maybe a hair weaker, although maybe it was just slower. QPF looks roughly the same. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 very similar to it's prior run. it might be a touch drier but it's within noise level range. It's nice to see more consistency with this system as opposed to the other ones this year. yes sir! I think the 850's will end up being colder on the doc...they are trending that way. I think you could get hit pretty hard, man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's not as wound up as the ukie or nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 PSU has limited soundings off the UKMET starting around 3:15-3:30. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This should be all snow, I don't think we see ice with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro let's the low slide off the SC coast. It never turns the corner like the ukie does. I wouldn't be surprised to see the ensembles a little more amped than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro jackpot for me, you weatherkid and a few others over this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro not drastically different than 0z a hair weaker and thus a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro let's the low slide off the SC coast. It never turns the corner like the ukie does. I wouldn't be surprised to see the ensembles a little more amped than the op. I would like to see it more amped and head up the coast a little but the UK is all alone. The CMC and GFS are weaker and further SE and the Euro is kind of in the middle. Looking more closely at the run it did a tick a hair SE. Still 60+ hours out, lots can change, from a weak miss to a more amped UK. I still think the miss is to the SE for us, if it misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I would like to see it more amped and head up the coast a little but the UK is all alone. The CMC and GFS are weaker and further SE and the Euro is kind of in the middle. Looking more closely at the run it did a hair SE. Still 60+ hours out, lots can change, from a weak miss to a more amped UK. I still think the miss is to the SE for us, if it misses.you also have the nam and sref amped up too. The gfs has moved north and it's usually the last and the cmc jumped alot in one run. This year I would not be surprised to see the ukie verify, it is the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm hard pressed to believe this misses us to the south. It hasn't all year so I don't know why it would start with one storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think we know the nature of this storm and that there will be a long WSW to ENE oriented band across the upper Southeast with moderate to in some places heavy snow. The question is where the band sets up. I would bet N Al, N MS, NGA, Upstate SC, NC. But this could shift NW or SE a bit over the next 48-60 hours. Also if we do see a coastal crank per the UKMET, it significantly increases the potential for eastern NC/SE Va. Should be a fun one to follow. With no blocking or 50/50 low in place, I expect this to be somewhat progressive and not close off. But it could still be a nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Better snow map, a little more accurate as it takes into account ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I would like to see it more amped and head up the coast a little but the UK is all alone. The CMC and GFS are weaker and further SE and the Euro is kind of in the middle. Looking more closely at the run it did a tick a hair SE. Still 60+ hours out, lots can change, from a weak miss to a more amped UK. I still think the miss is to the SE for us, if it misses. I'm still not convinced it won't work NW a bit. My memory is that these upper level disturbances tend to end up stronger as we close in. I'm starting to feel more comfortable that we shouldn't see huge changes in track, but I'd think NW, with a stronger wave, would still be favored. Either way, I like where things are now. This should be a decent event for many and maybe more for a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 you also have the nam and sref amped up too. The gfs has moved north and it's usually the last and the cmc jumped alot in one run. This year I would not be surprised to see the ukie verify, it is the king. I would think so too, UK has been doing very well. I would have thought though that the GFS and to a lesser extent the EURO would have come around by today's runs though....about 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think we know the nature of this storm and that there will be a long WSW to ENE oriented band across the upper Southeast with moderate to in some places heavy snow. The question is where the band sets up. I would bet N Al, N MS, NGA, Upstate SC, NC. But this could shift NW or SE a bit over the next 48-60 hours. Also if we do see a coastal crank per the UKMET, it significantly increases the potential for eastern NC/SE Va. Should be a fun one to follow. With no blocking or 50/50 low in place, I expect this to be somewhat progressive and not close off. But it could still be a nice thump. In my experience a 997 in the position the ukie was showing is usually bad for me here in Greenville. We almost always get warm nosed or go to all rain at some point. A blend of the ukie and euro would be ok for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro jackpot for me, you weatherkid and a few others over this way. Lets ride! Lock it up lol In all seriousness the consistency of the Euro gives me a lot of comfort. This is like the 3rd or 4th run in a row that gives us 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like 3 to 6 easily for Wake County. And really all it has to do is have more precip or tick one county further north to get 6 to 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 you also have the nam and sref amped up too. The gfs has moved north and it's usually the last and the cmc jumped alot in one run. This year I would not be surprised to see the ukie verify, it is the king. Don't forget the JMA... We know it's going to change from today's run and you don't to be in the jackpot 60 hours out. RDU was in the jackpot 60 hours out for last weeks event and we know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 From news 14, euro model Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/569914673291591680?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This is Eric's thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WSPA now saying mostly if not all snow being moderate at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Better snow map, a little more accurate as it takes into account ratios... it still isn't worth the bytes it's printed with. i know people love to look at them but man they are bad most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Better snow map, a little more accurate as it takes into account ratios... Both maps are not good, the WxBell maps overdo things and the ECMWF maps underdo things because they assume no evaporative cooling and the Euro tends to run warm in the boundary layer, compromise between both maps I find works in marginal temp deals, if you're gonna be 25 all storm than the Euro maps are very good but not when you're borderline, the WxBell ones are always overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm still not convinced it won't work NW a bit. My memory is that these upper level disturbances tend to end up stronger as we close in. I'm starting to feel more comfortable that we shouldn't see huge changes in track, but I'd think NW, with a stronger wave, would still be favored. Either way, I like where things are now. This should be a decent event for many and maybe more for a few. I agree CR, seen it too many times. We are right where we want to be with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 JMA sure is copious... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I feel like a safe bet is going to be 3-6 for most of NC and heavier amounts possible from GSP to east of CLT. I feel like this will over perform for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro jackpot for me, you weatherkid and a few others over this way. Count me in & sign me up. I'm literally right under the "7" @ KPDK. Good lookin' run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 JMA sure is copious... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_96HR.gif I think this is going to be one of those storms where Raleigh east jackpots. CLT and western carolinas gets whatever qpf from the over running system and then we're done, lower qpf (even the JMA is only a bit over .5 inches). But ENC gets a good additional shot when the low gets strong off the coast. Really wish this thing would crank in the gulf.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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