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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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very similar to it's prior run. it might be a touch drier but it's within noise level range. It's nice to see more consistency with this system as opposed to the other ones this year.

 

Yep, that's the 3rd run in a row virtually the same, small differences, the SLP maybe a hair weaker, although maybe it was just slower.  QPF looks roughly the same.  Good run.

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very similar to it's prior run. it might be a touch drier but it's within noise level range. It's nice to see more consistency with this system as opposed to the other ones this year.

yes sir!  I think the 850's will end up being colder on the doc...they are trending that way.  I think you could get hit pretty hard, man

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Euro let's the low slide off the SC coast. It never turns the corner like the ukie does. I wouldn't be surprised to see the ensembles a little more amped than the op.

 

I would like to see it more amped and head up the coast a little but the UK is all alone.  The CMC and GFS are weaker and further SE and the Euro is kind of in the middle.  Looking more closely at the run it did a tick a hair SE.  Still 60+ hours out, lots can change, from a weak miss to a more amped UK.  I still think the miss is to the SE for us, if it misses.

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I would like to see it more amped and head up the coast a little but the UK is all alone. The CMC and GFS are weaker and further SE and the Euro is kind of in the middle. Looking more closely at the run it did a hair SE. Still 60+ hours out, lots can change, from a weak miss to a more amped UK. I still think the miss is to the SE for us, if it misses.

you also have the nam and sref amped up too. The gfs has moved north and it's usually the last and the cmc jumped alot in one run. This year I would not be surprised to see the ukie verify, it is the king.
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I think we know the nature of this storm and that there will be a long WSW to ENE oriented band across the upper Southeast with moderate to in some places heavy snow. The question is where the band sets up.

 

I would bet N Al, N MS, NGA, Upstate SC, NC. But this could shift NW or SE a bit over the next 48-60 hours. Also if we do see a coastal crank per the UKMET, it significantly increases the potential for eastern NC/SE Va.

 

Should be a fun one to follow.

 

With no blocking or 50/50 low in place, I expect this to be somewhat progressive and not close off. But it could still be a nice thump.

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I would like to see it more amped and head up the coast a little but the UK is all alone.  The CMC and GFS are weaker and further SE and the Euro is kind of in the middle.  Looking more closely at the run it did a tick a hair SE.  Still 60+ hours out, lots can change, from a weak miss to a more amped UK.  I still think the miss is to the SE for us, if it misses.

I'm still not convinced it won't work NW a bit. My memory is that these upper level disturbances tend to end up stronger as we close in. I'm starting to feel more comfortable that we shouldn't see huge changes in track, but I'd think NW, with a stronger wave, would still be favored. Either way, I like where things are now. This should be a decent event for many and maybe more for a few.

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you also have the nam and sref amped up too. The gfs has moved north and it's usually the last and the cmc jumped alot in one run. This year I would not be surprised to see the ukie verify, it is the king.

 

I would think so too, UK has been doing very well.  I would have thought though that the GFS and to a lesser extent the EURO would have come around by today's runs though....about 48 hours out. 

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I think we know the nature of this storm and that there will be a long WSW to ENE oriented band across the upper Southeast with moderate to in some places heavy snow. The question is where the band sets up.

 

I would bet N Al, N MS, NGA, Upstate SC, NC. But this could shift NW or SE a bit over the next 48-60 hours. Also if we do see a coastal crank per the UKMET, it significantly increases the potential for eastern NC/SE Va.

 

Should be a fun one to follow.

 

With no blocking or 50/50 low in place, I expect this to be somewhat progressive and not close off. But it could still be a nice thump.

 

In my experience a 997 in the position the ukie was showing is usually bad for me here in Greenville. We almost always get warm nosed or go to all rain at some point. A blend of the ukie and euro would be ok for us though.

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you also have the nam and sref amped up too. The gfs has moved north and it's usually the last and the cmc jumped alot in one run. This year I would not be surprised to see the ukie verify, it is the king.

 

Don't forget the JMA...

 

We know it's going to change from today's run and you don't to be in the jackpot 60 hours out.  RDU was in the jackpot 60 hours out for last weeks event and we know how that turned out.

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Better snow map, a little more accurate as it takes into account ratios...

 

Both maps are not good, the WxBell maps overdo things and the ECMWF maps underdo things because they assume no evaporative cooling and the Euro tends to run warm in the boundary layer, compromise between both maps I find works in marginal temp deals, if you're gonna be 25 all storm than the Euro maps are very good but not when you're borderline, the WxBell ones are always overdone

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I'm still not convinced it won't work NW a bit. My memory is that these upper level disturbances tend to end up stronger as we close in. I'm starting to feel more comfortable that we shouldn't see huge changes in track, but I'd think NW, with a stronger wave, would still be favored. Either way, I like where things are now. This should be a decent event for many and maybe more for a few.

I agree CR, seen it too many times. We are right where we want to be with this storm.

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I think this is going to be one of those storms where Raleigh east jackpots.  CLT and western carolinas gets whatever qpf from the over running system and then we're done, lower qpf (even the JMA is only a bit over .5 inches).  But ENC gets a good additional shot when the low gets strong off the coast.

 

Really wish this thing would crank in the gulf....

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