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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Definitely has the classic SE winter snowstorm look to it. Only thing preventing this from being a widespread big snow for many is the upper level impulse is moving to fast to close off. This will likely be a quick hitting event for many, but like the idea of a band of 4-8 somewhere from N AL, N MS, N GA, SC, NC. However where the band sets up is the million dollar question.

 

Marginal temps at the start means at least a litlte qpf will be rain or rain mixed with snow particularly in southern sections of this band. Also since it will be a wet snow and temps will be near 32 during the event, I think ratios will likely be 7 or 8 to 1, at best 10 to 1.

 

Fun event to track, perhaps our last real event of the winter?

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The main mechanisms to bring it north some would be: 1) the PV lobe north of the Great Lakes not pressing as far south, and/or 2) the 5h wave sharpening more.  We've seen both of these occur close to go time prior to several events this winter.  North and rain is much more the problem scenario to me than south and miss.  2 days is still a long time in model land....JMO.  

 

And those two could/would work in tandem too, both good/bad.

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The main mechanisms to bring it north some would be: 1) the PV lobe north of the Great Lakes not pressing as far south, and/or 2) the 5h wave sharpening more.  We've seen both of these occur close to go time prior to several events this winter.  North and rain is much more the problem scenario to me than south and miss.  2 days is still a long time in model land....JMO.  

 

Matthew East said there is only so far it can trend NW this time with the big low in SE Canada and the Northeast. He said some ticks NE are possible, but he doesn't think this will be rain for western and central NC.

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The main mechanisms to bring it north some would be: 1) the PV lobe north of the Great Lakes not pressing as far south, and/or 2) the 5h wave sharpening more.  We've seen both of these occur close to go time prior to several events this winter.  North and rain is much more the problem scenario to me than south and miss.  2 days is still a long time in model land....JMO.  

 

I will say that looking at Allan's trend loops (which are nice) on the GFS and GEFS, that the PV lobe placement has stabilized somewhat after previously ticking north....also, I noticed that it didn't change on the latest UKMet.

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Mid-level temps per that Ukie run look marginal for folks south of RAH and along a line to near Charlotte and Anderson SC for the whole event.

. TT_GZ_UU_VV_072_0850.gif

It's pretty warm for ATL and GSP, those places snow shot comes as the system passes to their southeast and they cool off, it may be similar to January 87

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WPC's thoughts as of 1158AM

...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARPTROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AWAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSSINGNORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 12Z NAM TRENDED MOREAMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COASTSTATES...BUT IT IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF ALL THE MODELS.THE 12Z GFS FOR ITS PART IS THE FLATTEST/WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 00ZUKMET/00Z GEM AND 00Z ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...BUT THE GEMAPPEARS TO BE TOO SUPPRESSED WITH ITS WAVE TRACK. THE STRONGERMODEL CLUSTERING FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET AND SO THISWILL BE THE PREFERENCE.
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WPC's thoughts as of 1158AM

...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

 

Great find!  Sounds promising.  I'm guessing this is why the probability charts looked the way they did earlier.  It's amazing to me how their probabilities are always north of what the models are showing.  I guess they use their brains instead of going strictly by model output.  I also like the average confidence with this classic setup.  It seems like most of the time, these official discussions have the caveat of LOW Confidence. 

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Shots fired?  LOL  head on over to my Facebook page for my first "call" map if you will.  Please like the page and share it..Thanks!  Hang on, its going to be a crazy fun ride   :)  -Chris

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

Question: If we take the WPC's blend of the Ukie and Euro, doesn't that enhance totals in ENC?

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Shots fired?  LOL  head on over to my Facebook page for my first "call" map if you will.  Please like the page and share it..Thanks!  Hang on, its going to be a crazy fun ride   :)  -Chris

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

 

Great map! Still a little weary of being on the southern end b/w "best potential" and "inbetween zone lol", especially considering the UKMET and (lol) this morning's NAVGEM.

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Shots fired?  LOL  head on over to my Facebook page for my first "call" map if you will.  Please like the page and share it..Thanks!  Hang on, its going to be a crazy fun ride   :)  -Chris

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

 

 

Hard not to let my inner weenie explode. I'm so excited!

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they all look great i'll tell you

A lot of them suggest the highest totals in Upstate SC and a good amount of NC....I feel like upstate SC and NC are sitting nice here just looking at the mean and the individuals...lots of big dogs for those areas specifically.

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A lot of them suggest the highest totals in Upstate SC and a good amount of NC....I feel like upstate SC and NC are sitting nice here just looking at the mean and the individuals...lots of big dogs for those areas specifically.

 

 

 

Jon,

 

      Complete newb question.  Isn't upstate SC going to struggle with the 850 temps?  At least on the front end of the storm.  Last thing I want is a steady rain switching over to about 30 mins of snow.  :axe:

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If the Euro holds serve then its game on IMO, the chances of significant track changes go way down as we are getting close to the 48 hr threshold. How many times have we seen a true Miller A GOM storm track this winter? Is this the first one that actually got within 48 hrs on the model? Seems like everything else has been Miller B and or over running setups.

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