packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GEFS mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Definitely has the classic SE winter snowstorm look to it. Only thing preventing this from being a widespread big snow for many is the upper level impulse is moving to fast to close off. This will likely be a quick hitting event for many, but like the idea of a band of 4-8 somewhere from N AL, N MS, N GA, SC, NC. However where the band sets up is the million dollar question. Marginal temps at the start means at least a litlte qpf will be rain or rain mixed with snow particularly in southern sections of this band. Also since it will be a wet snow and temps will be near 32 during the event, I think ratios will likely be 7 or 8 to 1, at best 10 to 1. Fun event to track, perhaps our last real event of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The main mechanisms to bring it north some would be: 1) the PV lobe north of the Great Lakes not pressing as far south, and/or 2) the 5h wave sharpening more. We've seen both of these occur close to go time prior to several events this winter. North and rain is much more the problem scenario to me than south and miss. 2 days is still a long time in model land....JMO. And those two could/would work in tandem too, both good/bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The main mechanisms to bring it north some would be: 1) the PV lobe north of the Great Lakes not pressing as far south, and/or 2) the 5h wave sharpening more. We've seen both of these occur close to go time prior to several events this winter. North and rain is much more the problem scenario to me than south and miss. 2 days is still a long time in model land....JMO. Matthew East said there is only so far it can trend NW this time with the big low in SE Canada and the Northeast. He said some ticks NE are possible, but he doesn't think this will be rain for western and central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The main mechanisms to bring it north some would be: 1) the PV lobe north of the Great Lakes not pressing as far south, and/or 2) the 5h wave sharpening more. We've seen both of these occur close to go time prior to several events this winter. North and rain is much more the problem scenario to me than south and miss. 2 days is still a long time in model land....JMO. I will say that looking at Allan's trend loops (which are nice) on the GFS and GEFS, that the PV lobe placement has stabilized somewhat after previously ticking north....also, I noticed that it didn't change on the latest UKMet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Mid-level temps per that Ukie run look marginal for folks south of RAH and along a line to near Charlotte and Anderson SC for the whole event. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Mid-level temps per that Ukie run look marginal for folks south of RAH and along a line to near Charlotte and Anderson SC for the whole event. . It's pretty warm for ATL and GSP, those places snow shot comes as the system passes to their southeast and they cool off, it may be similar to January 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Mid-level temps per that Ukie run look marginal for folks south of RAH and along a line to near Charlotte and Anderson SC for the whole event. No doubt, there's little wiggle room for us....but that looks better this run of the UKMet and should be nearly all snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Mid-level temps per that Ukie run look marginal for folks south of RAH and along a line to near Charlotte and Anderson SC for the whole event. . It's a Laurinburg to Elizabeth City line. Per that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WPC's thoughts as of 1158AM ...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARPTROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AWAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSSINGNORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 12Z NAM TRENDED MOREAMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COASTSTATES...BUT IT IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF ALL THE MODELS.THE 12Z GFS FOR ITS PART IS THE FLATTEST/WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 00ZUKMET/00Z GEM AND 00Z ECMWF SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...BUT THE GEMAPPEARS TO BE TOO SUPPRESSED WITH ITS WAVE TRACK. THE STRONGERMODEL CLUSTERING FAVORS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET AND SO THISWILL BE THE PREFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's a Laurinburg to Elizabeth City line. Per that frame. I was thinking more Rockingham to E. City ... which puts it right on the Bunnlevel Line again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WPC's thoughts as of 1158AM ...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE Great find! Sounds promising. I'm guessing this is why the probability charts looked the way they did earlier. It's amazing to me how their probabilities are always north of what the models are showing. I guess they use their brains instead of going strictly by model output. I also like the average confidence with this classic setup. It seems like most of the time, these official discussions have the caveat of LOW Confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Shots fired? LOL head on over to my Facebook page for my first "call" map if you will. Please like the page and share it..Thanks! Hang on, its going to be a crazy fun ride -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Shots fired? LOL head on over to my Facebook page for my first "call" map if you will. Please like the page and share it..Thanks! Hang on, its going to be a crazy fun ride -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Question: If we take the WPC's blend of the Ukie and Euro, doesn't that enhance totals in ENC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Shots fired? LOL head on over to my Facebook page for my first "call" map if you will. Please like the page and share it..Thanks! Hang on, its going to be a crazy fun ride -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Great map! Still a little weary of being on the southern end b/w "best potential" and "inbetween zone lol", especially considering the UKMET and (lol) this morning's NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I really hope that someone posts a couple of the individual GEFS members in a bit. I'm betting there are some beasts! Hopefully there is not as much spread since we are getting closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 I really hope that someone posts a couple of the individual GEFS members in a bit. I'm betting there are some beasts! Hopefully there is not as much spread since we are getting closer in. they all look great i'll tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 they all look great i'll tell you Great news. Less spread I'm assuming. Let's reel this one in. Looks to be a classic SE storm. Hopefully there won't be any last minute swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigKingDaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 My NOAA forecast for Inman, SC for Wed night is 40% chance of Rain/Snow with a low of 30. Partly Sunny and a high of 45 on Thursday. They unfortunately don't seem to be anywhere ready to start honking the horn yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Great map! Still a little weary of being on the southern end b/w "best potential" and "inbetween zone lol", especially considering the UKMET and (lol) this morning's NAVGEM. Thank you! I am as well....But, I think the UKIE is too juiced and too warm. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Question: If we take the WPC's blend of the Ukie and Euro, doesn't that enhance totals in ENC? I have thought about putting that area in there, but I want to see more before that. Thats very possible tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 they all look great i'll tell you Just looked, WOW...You aren't kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Shots fired? LOL head on over to my Facebook page for my first "call" map if you will. Please like the page and share it..Thanks! Hang on, its going to be a crazy fun ride -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Hard not to let my inner weenie explode. I'm so excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 they all look great i'll tell you A lot of them suggest the highest totals in Upstate SC and a good amount of NC....I feel like upstate SC and NC are sitting nice here just looking at the mean and the individuals...lots of big dogs for those areas specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 last 4 runs of the GEFS consistently jackpotting the Albemarle Sound area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigKingDaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 A lot of them suggest the highest totals in Upstate SC and a good amount of NC....I feel like upstate SC and NC are sitting nice here just looking at the mean and the individuals...lots of big dogs for those areas specifically. Jon, Complete newb question. Isn't upstate SC going to struggle with the 850 temps? At least on the front end of the storm. Last thing I want is a steady rain switching over to about 30 mins of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the Euro holds serve then its game on IMO, the chances of significant track changes go way down as we are getting close to the 48 hr threshold. How many times have we seen a true Miller A GOM storm track this winter? Is this the first one that actually got within 48 hrs on the model? Seems like everything else has been Miller B and or over running setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ill be waiting on the pick of the litter to be posted by WOW A lot of them suggest the highest totals in Upstate SC and a good amount of NC....I feel like upstate SC and NC are sitting nice here just looking at the mean and the individuals...lots of big dogs for those areas specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Doc looks strong through HR48...Wish it was a bit quicker...would be colder. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 very similar to it's prior run. it might be a touch drier but it's within noise level range. It's nice to see more consistency with this system as opposed to the other ones this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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