packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Umm...this would be interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Holy crap, the 12z UKMET is a huge storm. 997 mb LP just off Hatteras! The track through the Gulf is about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Much better than 200 miles east of wilm at the same time on 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Holy crap, the 12z UKMET is a huge storm. 997 mb LP just off Hatteras! Track through the Gulf is about the same. Yep, it's about a perfect track, for the SLP to be hugging the coast like the ULL must have been stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Holy crap, the 12z UKMET is a huge storm. 997 mb LP just off Hatteras! The track through the Gulf is about the same.post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Holy crap, the 12z UKMET is a huge storm. 997 mb LP just off Hatteras! The track through the Gulf is about the same. 12z Euro had that yesterday I suppose it will be the same output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think a 2-4" event is a good expectation but believe there is potential for more. I agree. I think that is really the minimum, not the max potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 First OMGs and Holy Craps of the day with the Ukie. Now, how do the mid levels look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 A few things. First despite what some will have you believe there is plenty of cold air with this. There is also a lot of dynamics going on with this storm. I also believe 2-4 for much NC is the safe bet. The second thing is that even if this slides south like the GFS shows it is likely down playing the moisture. Those systems always over produce and precip is a lot further NW than models show. We are in a perfect position. Not sure why the freakout all of the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Holy crap, the 12z UKMET is a huge storm. 997 mb LP just off Hatteras! The track through the Gulf is about the same. Us guys east of 95 never like too see them hug the coastline like this. Could be a kiss of death if its on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree. I think that is really the minimum, not the max potential. I disagree, I don't remember the last winter event that over-performed for our area, it's always the under. Can't shake trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree. I think that is really the minimum, not the max potential. This is where you get yourself into trouble, thinking this is the minimum. 0 is not off the table, by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 There would be a very nice deform band with heavy snow that sets up somewhere, if the Ukie is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I disagree, I don't remember the last winter event that over-performed for our area, it's always the under. Can't shake trends... Or pessimism, apparently, even when things look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 First OMGs and Holy Craps of the day with the Ukie. Now, how do the mid levels look? Pretty good, for the UK, which is usually warm with 2m's. This is for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Pretty good, for the UK, which is usually warm with 2m's. This is for Raleigh. Thank you sir. Or pessimism, apparently, even when things look good. Don't start that again. Things look good for a 2-4 inch event (most likely), but to not acknowledge the fact that it could be lower is not very smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 I am currently forecasting between 2 (min) and 12 (max) inches of snow for the NC I-85 corridor. I'll expect a nice 2-4" but secretly hoping for something much larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Thank you sir. Don't start that again. Things look good for a 2-4 inch event (most likely), but to not acknowledge the fact that it could be lower is not very smart. Just saying 2 to 4 is a safe bet, and looking more likely there will be more than that than less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I am currently forecasting between 2 (min) and 12 (max) inches of snow for the NC I-85 corridor. I'll expect a nice 2-4" but secretly hoping for something much larger. Nice to see the trends today. Can't believe things are trending so well this close. When I say "can't believe" it is because I do not believe it. Will wait until the sky verifies on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 12z GEFS isn't that far off from the UK, SLP track wise. Just weaker with the SLP. Edit: The GEFS maybe 50 miles east of the UK, but is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 12z GEFS isn't that far off from the UK, SLP track wise. Just weaker with the SLP. Edit: The GEFS maybe 50 miles east of the UK, but is weaker. I would assume that this was an improvement over the 6z GEFS? Nobody reported on them this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 12z GEFS isn't that far off from the UK, SLP track wise. Just weaker with the SLP. Edit: The GEFS maybe 50 miles east of the UK, but is weaker. An ensemble mean is almost always going to have a weaker SLP compared to an operational model, so no worries there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I would assume that this was an improvement over the 6z GEFS? Nobody reported on them this morning. It's a hair NW of the 6z GEFS, maybe like 20 miles. Edit: This for when it's off the SE coast. It's right inline with the 6z GEFS run in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yep, it's about a perfect track, for the SLP to be hugging the coast like the ULL must have been stronger. where are you getting the UKMET from? I have weatherbell and it never has the recent runs from it until much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 James Spann has I-20 folks buzzing with his latest Twitter post of the 12z Goofus snow accumulation. https://twitter.com/spann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 And ensemble mean is almost always going to have a weaker SLP compared to an operational model, so no worries there. The GEFS mean is a tick stronger and a tick NW of the GFS op...interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 where are you getting the UKMET from? I have weatherbell and it never has the recent runs from it until much later. Here you go... http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Why do you say that Grit? What's the mechanism to keep this more north, closer to the coast? It seems like the GFS is still insistent on the low staying south of the coast in the gulf. The main mechanisms to bring it north some would be: 1) the PV lobe north of the Great Lakes not pressing as far south, and/or 2) the 5h wave sharpening more. We've seen both of these occur close to go time prior to several events this winter. North and rain is much more the problem scenario to me than south and miss. 2 days is still a long time in model land....JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The main mechanisms to bring it north some would be: 1) the PV lobe north of the Great Lakes not pressing as far south, and/or 2) the 5h wave sharpening more. We've seen both of these occur close to go time prior to several events this winter. North and rain is much more the problem scenario to me than south and miss. 2 days is still a long time in model land....JMO.yeah just think back a week ago. My area was good for 8-12 and we got one of sleet and rain. Huge shift at 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The Ukie is the mac daddy of models now in regards to identifying cyclogenesis and surface low tracks. I don't nit pick models so much over pressure errors and qpf errors in mid range. I mean this model has been phenomenal at getting the h5 right in what's proven to be one of the tougher patterns in many a year, just look at euro day 5 through 7 blips all season. Gfs is imo worse garbage than before in day 3 through 7. Oh well. Wow I agree with you. Folks might giggle at 2 to 12. But honestly it's a very good call for NC I 85. And to be honest with ukie and euro in lock step 6 to 10 is the gun to head call right now for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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