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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Isn't the GFS usually too far south as well as too warm? Or is the new GFS better? I was thinking it not perfect, but close to what we want the GFS to be saying

 

It varies really depending on the type of storm...but for this type of southern stream feature, it tends to be flatter with the 5h wave like it is now, which would make the storm a little weaker and a little farther south.  It's helpful to use it in concert with its ensemble members to see the various outcomes.

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LOL...yep. To be honest, we literally can't be happy with any model run right now, if it shows a perfect storm track dumping 4-8" across the area we would be worried about the north trend, this slightly weaker GFS run we are worried about a non-event.

i like how that map shows the snow well south of I-20, all the way to Columbus !
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It varies really depending on the type of storm...but for this type of southern stream feature, it tends to be flatter with the 5h wave like it is now, which would make the storm a little weaker and a little farther south.  It's helpful to use it in concert with it's ensemble members to see the various outcomes.

Didn't the Euro handle the last storm better anyway?

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It varies really depending on the type of storm...but for this type of southern stream feature, it tends to be flatter with the 5h wave like it is now, which would make the storm a little weaker and a little farther south. It's helpful to use it in concert with it's ensemble members to see the various outcomes.

Thanks for the advice/info, I was thinking that from past winters it seemed to have that bias on these types of storms. We'll see what happens!

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Words of wisdom from the boys at KGSP:

 

From NWS GSP forecast discussion

 

THE SREF PLUMES
POINT TO SNOW AS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE FCST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMTS PERHAPS APPROACHING
WARNING CRITERIA. MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE PRECIP
BEGINNING AS RAIN OR SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE
EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE EXPERIENCED READER UNDERSTANDS THAT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO SNOW
BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING IS USUALLY
A SUCKERS BET. 
FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENTERTAIN ISSUING ANY
WEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUR EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE
MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHC
RANGE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS WE MOVE
FORWARD.

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Its an impossible forecast for ATL and vicinity, the sounding at 21Z Wednesday is a snow sounding, massive dry layer from 700-90mb that can be cooled by evaporative rates...the surface is 38/30 but my question is why is ATL 31/24 at 12Z and then 38/30 at 21z?  Where are you advecting higher dewpoints in from on a N-NNE wind?  My guess is ATL is at best 35/27 at 21Z which means this is a snowstorm verbatim on the GFS despite what it may say

Agreed!!  I have a map of why I think the GFS is wrong with temps as well

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RULE #7 DOUBLE EE RULE

When the 60 - 84 Hour ETA matches the ECMWF day 3-4 at surface and 500 MB that is a pretty good winning hand. Take it to the bank.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4534-dts-rules-for-mediumextended-forecasting/?p=141037

Ah - very helpful and very encouraging for our region. Thanks for the lesson!

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its too good to be true. Just praying something horrible doesn't happen in the next 48 hours

This is Ga.  If it's still looking good 12 hours out, then you can start holding your breath, lol.  I went from snow in the forecast last night to none this morning for Tues morn, and Ptree City has usually been right on events down this way.  If they start honking the Thurs. storm, with some totals for me, I'll get more interested, but right now, it's just too borderline with the temps.  A little waver in the track could make a ton of difference, though I do like hearing Larry say it's a good track climo wise.  The heavy precip will have to drag down the cold, and the waa will be just over the rise trying to squirrel the stew down this way....but, in my favor, that's when I get sleet :)  Got to dance the devil dance with the waa and hope to win :)  T

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This is Ga.  If it's still looking good 12 hours out, then you can start holding your breath, lol.  I went from snow in the forecast last night to none this morning for Tues morn, and Ptree City has usually been right on events down this way.  If they start honking the Thurs. storm, with some totals for me, I'll get more interested, but right now, it's just too borderline with the temps.  A little waver in the track could make a ton of difference, though I do like hearing Larry say it's a good track climo wise.  The heavy precip will have to drag down the cold, and the waa will be just over the rise trying to squirrel the stew down this way....but, in my favor, that's when I get sleet :)  Got to dance the devil dance with the waa and hope to win :)  T

you would be awfully happy if you were in Dallas right now !
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Words of wisdom from the boys at KGSP:

 

From NWS GSP forecast discussion

 

THE SREF PLUMES

POINT TO SNOW AS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF

THE FCST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMTS PERHAPS APPROACHING

WARNING CRITERIA. MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE PRECIP

BEGINNING AS RAIN OR SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE

EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE EXPERIENCED READER UNDERSTANDS THAT

ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO SNOW

BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING IS USUALLY

A SUCKERS BET. FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENTERTAIN ISSUING ANY

WEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUR EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE

MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHC

RANGE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS WE MOVE

FORWARD.

:wacko2:

 

And yet you totally ignore what is at the end. They are setting up that forecast is going to change and it will probably reflect snow. You know it, I know it and they know it. 

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If you look at the GFS its starting to trend towards the NAM idea of pulling cold air into the system over MS-GA by bending in the thickness lines.

I noticed that 850 RH's at 18Z Wed. (just before precip starts) are only at 30%! That means 850 wetbulbs are now down to ~-1.5 C. That was near 0C to -0.5C on yesterday's runs. So, the trend has been for cooling. So, if precip is heavy enough, the 850's could drop to near -1.5C. Note that they do drop to near -1C.

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I noticed that 850 RH's at 18Z Wed. (just before precip starts) are only at 30%! That means 850 wetbulbs are now down to ~-1.5 C. That was near 0C to -0.5C on yesterday's runs. So, the trend has been for cooling. So, if precip is heavy enough, the 850's could drop to near -1.5C. Note that they do drop to near -1C.

 

All of us will certainly be watching to see what happens down stream your way. The thing to keep in mind for folks on the edge is that this is a very strong vort. Anyone just NW of the center is going to get a lot of lift out of it and good snow. It's basically an ULL and will probably trend that way the closer we get to it. 

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Do ya'll not remember where the GFS had the Feb 16 system modeled 60 days out...... As a nashvillian who ended up with a sleet/freezing rain storm after thinking for sure I was getting 6-8 inches of snow 24 hours out, I would be cautious. The NAM has moved considerably northwest all ready, the ukie is further north and west, and there's still 60 hours to go.

 

Don't buy in until it starts falling. Heartbreak comes easy with a  northwest trend.

 

BTW - I've now lived in Nashville 12 years and haven't seen more than 4 inches of snow in one storm, and 4 inches happened once.

 

No more than an inch imby since Feb 9 2011.

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