griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Isn't the GFS usually too far south as well as too warm? Or is the new GFS better? I was thinking it not perfect, but close to what we want the GFS to be saying It varies really depending on the type of storm...but for this type of southern stream feature, it tends to be flatter with the 5h wave like it is now, which would make the storm a little weaker and a little farther south. It's helpful to use it in concert with its ensemble members to see the various outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 LOL...yep. To be honest, we literally can't be happy with any model run right now, if it shows a perfect storm track dumping 4-8" across the area we would be worried about the north trend, this slightly weaker GFS run we are worried about a non-event. i like how that map shows the snow well south of I-20, all the way to Columbus ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It varies really depending on the type of storm...but for this type of southern stream feature, it tends to be flatter with the 5h wave like it is now, which would make the storm a little weaker and a little farther south. It's helpful to use it in concert with it's ensemble members to see the various outcomes. Didn't the Euro handle the last storm better anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlantaThrasher Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It varies really depending on the type of storm...but for this type of southern stream feature, it tends to be flatter with the 5h wave like it is now, which would make the storm a little weaker and a little farther south. It's helpful to use it in concert with it's ensemble members to see the various outcomes. Thanks for the advice/info, I was thinking that from past winters it seemed to have that bias on these types of storms. We'll see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If you look at the GFS its starting to trend towards the NAM idea of pulling cold air into the system over MS-GA by bending in the thickness lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Words of wisdom from the boys at KGSP: From NWS GSP forecast discussion THE SREF PLUMESPOINT TO SNOW AS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OFTHE FCST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMTS PERHAPS APPROACHINGWARNING CRITERIA. MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE PRECIPBEGINNING AS RAIN OR SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THEEVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE EXPERIENCED READER UNDERSTANDS THATACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO SNOWBASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING IS USUALLYA SUCKERS BET. FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENTERTAIN ISSUING ANYWEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUR EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BEMANAGED ACCORDINGLY. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHCRANGE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS WE MOVEFORWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Its an impossible forecast for ATL and vicinity, the sounding at 21Z Wednesday is a snow sounding, massive dry layer from 700-90mb that can be cooled by evaporative rates...the surface is 38/30 but my question is why is ATL 31/24 at 12Z and then 38/30 at 21z? Where are you advecting higher dewpoints in from on a N-NNE wind? My guess is ATL is at best 35/27 at 21Z which means this is a snowstorm verbatim on the GFS despite what it may say Agreed!! I have a map of why I think the GFS is wrong with temps as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 RULE #7 DOUBLE EE RULE When the 60 - 84 Hour ETA matches the ECMWF day 3-4 at surface and 500 MB that is a pretty good winning hand. Take it to the bank. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4534-dts-rules-for-mediumextended-forecasting/?p=141037 Ah - very helpful and very encouraging for our region. Thanks for the lesson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 its too good to be true. Just praying something horrible doesn't happen in the next 48 hours This is Ga. If it's still looking good 12 hours out, then you can start holding your breath, lol. I went from snow in the forecast last night to none this morning for Tues morn, and Ptree City has usually been right on events down this way. If they start honking the Thurs. storm, with some totals for me, I'll get more interested, but right now, it's just too borderline with the temps. A little waver in the track could make a ton of difference, though I do like hearing Larry say it's a good track climo wise. The heavy precip will have to drag down the cold, and the waa will be just over the rise trying to squirrel the stew down this way....but, in my favor, that's when I get sleet Got to dance the devil dance with the waa and hope to win T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This is Ga. If it's still looking good 12 hours out, then you can start holding your breath, lol. I went from snow in the forecast last night to none this morning for Tues morn, and Ptree City has usually been right on events down this way. If they start honking the Thurs. storm, with some totals for me, I'll get more interested, but right now, it's just too borderline with the temps. A little waver in the track could make a ton of difference, though I do like hearing Larry say it's a good track climo wise. The heavy precip will have to drag down the cold, and the waa will be just over the rise trying to squirrel the stew down this way....but, in my favor, that's when I get sleet Got to dance the devil dance with the waa and hope to win T you would be awfully happy if you were in Dallas right now ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Words of wisdom from the boys at KGSP: From NWS GSP forecast discussion THE SREF PLUMES POINT TO SNOW AS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMTS PERHAPS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN OR SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...THE EXPERIENCED READER UNDERSTANDS THAT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO SNOW BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING IS USUALLY A SUCKERS BET. FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENTERTAIN ISSUING ANY WEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUR EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS WE MOVE FORWARD. And yet you totally ignore what is at the end. They are setting up that forecast is going to change and it will probably reflect snow. You know it, I know it and they know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If you look at the GFS its starting to trend towards the NAM idea of pulling cold air into the system over MS-GA by bending in the thickness lines. I noticed that 850 RH's at 18Z Wed. (just before precip starts) are only at 30%! That means 850 wetbulbs are now down to ~-1.5 C. That was near 0C to -0.5C on yesterday's runs. So, the trend has been for cooling. So, if precip is heavy enough, the 850's could drop to near -1.5C. Note that they do drop to near -1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wow do I have some catching up to do. I'm loving the trends, I'm in Frederick Maryland with a half a foot of snow on the ground and hope to return home to fresh snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAVGEM backed off it's crazy run, now looks very close to the GFS, maybe a little wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I noticed that 850 RH's at 18Z Wed. (just before precip starts) are only at 30%! That means 850 wetbulbs are now down to ~-1.5 C. That was near 0C to -0.5C on yesterday's runs. So, the trend has been for cooling. So, if precip is heavy enough, the 850's could drop to near -1.5C. Note that they do drop to near -1C. All of us will certainly be watching to see what happens down stream your way. The thing to keep in mind for folks on the edge is that this is a very strong vort. Anyone just NW of the center is going to get a lot of lift out of it and good snow. It's basically an ULL and will probably trend that way the closer we get to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah, that looks more like you'd expect from the NAVGEM... south and east. That's why it seemed strange last night when it decided to smash through central GA with the surface low. Looks like it keeps the low pretty weak, too, which is probably to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Do ya'll not remember where the GFS had the Feb 16 system modeled 60 days out...... As a nashvillian who ended up with a sleet/freezing rain storm after thinking for sure I was getting 6-8 inches of snow 24 hours out, I would be cautious. The NAM has moved considerably northwest all ready, the ukie is further north and west, and there's still 60 hours to go. Don't buy in until it starts falling. Heartbreak comes easy with a northwest trend. BTW - I've now lived in Nashville 12 years and haven't seen more than 4 inches of snow in one storm, and 4 inches happened once. No more than an inch imby since Feb 9 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not surprising, but the CMC is more north than it's 0z run, but it was definitely an outlier. Looks similar to the GFS at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not surprising, but the CMC is more north than it's 0z run, but it was definitely an outlier. Looks similar to the GFS at 60 hours. Looks like it's coming up the coast to some degree. Good to see the last extreme outlier fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not surprising, but the CMC is more north than it's 0z run, but it was definitely an outlier. Looks similar to the GFS at 60 hours.are we starting the nw tick today, most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 CMC is a good hit for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 CMC snow map, the 0z run was almost a whiff...this is a fairly nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 CMC is a good hit for NC. Gotta love how the precip field jumped about 200 miles NW in one run inside of three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 IMO, hardly anyone in NC will be worried about this being too far south 2 days from now Why do you say that Grit? What's the mechanism to keep this more north, closer to the coast? It seems like the GFS is still insistent on the low staying south of the coast in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 With a dying ULL, I think a 2-4" event for the NC folks is about our max potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 OMG...UK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 OMG...UK... 997? o O I bow down to the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 With a dying ULL, I think a 2-4" event for the NC folks is about our max potential. We have seen several instances in previous winters where ULL's hang on stronger and longer than modeled this far out. It will be interesting to see if this one behaves similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 With a dying ULL, I think a 2-4" event for the NC folks is about our max potential. I think a 2-4" event is a good expectation but believe there is potential for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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