Mr Bob Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Where is chez, or mr bob to come in and crush our weenie dreams for the ATL area? Ha! It is a good track for Atl...let's hope we don't experience another 24 hour before model shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 to summarize Mike's post... it could do anything right now and we don't want to say. WRAL will never concentrate on something until 24-36 hours out. That's a given. I don't like the rain-snow scenario, as stated before. The first inch or 2 of snow could melt because of the warm wet ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12Z NAM snowfall map looks healthy for basically all of NC, upstate SC, and northern GA: Looks like an I-85 Special from Georgia through SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS isn't going to cut it this run either. It's way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 No GFS pbp. Burger picked a bad day for a hangover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS isn't going to cut it this run either. It's way south. it is similar to 06z, not way south by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SLP is weaker...but it ticked NW a hair off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS isn't going to cut it this run either. It's way south.That is great news!What time is the cloud storm suppose to start? Wed night or Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Compared to other guidance it is south. At hour 60 LP is well south of the FLA panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Brad P's morning update on the potential system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 No GFS pbp. Burger picked a bad day for a hangover! GFS is sticking to it's guns...which could happen. Would still give most of the board in NC 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 yep gfs similar to 06z. a nice event for nc. still need a tick nw to get the big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The GFS has about .10 qpf to RDu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS isn't going to cut it this run either. It's way south. i think some of you need to not make this so in your back yard centered. Saying it's not going to cut it when half the board still sees snow isn't helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is sticking to it's guns...which could happen. Would still give most of the board in NC 2-4 inches. I just don't know how good the new GFS is with a pure southern low like this. In the old days we would be fairly happy with what it's showing knowing it was a little weaker and SE of where it will ultimately end up. This new GFS has been doing fairly good this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z was still a nice event for the Upstate and central and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 yep gfs similar to 06z. a nice event for nc. still need a tick nw to get the big totals. As long as it has something, not really concerned that the GFS is a smaller event. Everything else looks bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the GFS is right there would be very little snow in NC. The good news is it's an outlier for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 i think some of you need to not make this so in your back yard centered. Saying it's not going to cut it when half the board still sees snow isn't helpful. It didn't look that good for north GA either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I just don't know how good the new GFS is with a pure southern low like this. In the old days we would be fairly happy with what it's showing knowing it was a little weaker and SE of where it will ultimately end up. This new GFS has been doing fairly good this winter. IMO, hardly anyone in NC will be worried about this being too far south 2 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It didn't look that good for north GA either Its an impossible forecast for ATL and vicinity, the sounding at 21Z Wednesday is a snow sounding, massive dry layer from 700-90mb that can be cooled by evaporative rates...the surface is 38/30 but my question is why is ATL 31/24 at 12Z and then 38/30 at 21z? Where are you advecting higher dewpoints in from on a N-NNE wind? My guess is ATL is at best 35/27 at 21Z which means this is a snowstorm verbatim on the GFS despite what it may say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 l am reserving judgment on the GFS until I see those ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM & Euro are absolute things of beauty for areas near ATL. IT appears the Northern Burbs get jackpotted with 4-8" totals. EE Rule in effect Please enlighten a newbie as to what the "EE rule" is. I'm usually pretty good at sleuthing the acronyms but that one eludes me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlantaThrasher Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Isn't the GFS usually too far south as well as too warm? Or is the new GFS better? I was thinking it not perfect, but close to what we want the GFS to be saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The ensembles for the GFS have constantly shown a bigger storm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Well, I can tell you what the myth is in the upstate of SC....all our snows come from Atlanta. So, cheers to hoping a week of I-85 winter weather specials! You are right about that. I've heard that all of my life, and I will say it's pretty much a given. In fact we usually fair better than Atlanta in those cases as well. Here's rooting for you Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 IMO, hardly anyone in NC will be worried about this being too far south 2 days from now I agree. I think you hug the NAM it's been leading the way on this system since yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It didn't look that good for north GA either Regardless of the fact there's a decent shot of being wrong, That's not the point. Running around saying a model sucks because your back yard doesn't see enough snow is annoying and just clutters up the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 IMO, hardly anyone in NC will be worried about this being too far south 2 days from now LOL...yep. To be honest, we literally can't be happy with any model run right now, if it shows a perfect storm track dumping 4-8" across the area we would be worried about the north trend, this slightly weaker GFS run we are worried about a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Please enlighten a newbie as to what the "EE rule" is. I'm usually pretty good at sleuthing the acronyms but that one eludes me... RULE #7 DOUBLE EE RULE When the 60 - 84 Hour ETA matches the ECMWF day 3-4 at surface and 500 MB that is a pretty good winning hand. Take it to the bank. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4534-dts-rules-for-mediumextended-forecasting/?p=141037 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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