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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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GFS is sticking to it's guns...which could happen. Would still give most of the board in NC 2-4 inches. 

 

 

I just don't know how good the new GFS is with a pure southern low like this.  In the old days we would be fairly happy with what it's showing knowing it was a little weaker and SE of where it will ultimately end up.  This new GFS has been doing fairly good this winter.

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I just don't know how good the new GFS is with a pure southern low like this.  In the old days we would be fairly happy with what it's showing knowing it was a little weaker and SE of where it will ultimately end up.  This new GFS has been doing fairly good this winter.

 

IMO, hardly anyone in NC will be worried about this being too far south 2 days from now

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It didn't look that good for north GA either

 

Its an impossible forecast for ATL and vicinity, the sounding at 21Z Wednesday is a snow sounding, massive dry layer from 700-90mb that can be cooled by evaporative rates...the surface is 38/30 but my question is why is ATL 31/24 at 12Z and then 38/30 at 21z?  Where are you advecting higher dewpoints in from on a N-NNE wind?  My guess is ATL is at best 35/27 at 21Z which means this is a snowstorm verbatim on the GFS despite what it may say

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Well, I can tell you what the myth is in the upstate of SC....all our snows come from Atlanta.

So, cheers to hoping a week of I-85 winter weather specials!

 

You are right about that. I've heard that all of my life, and I will say it's pretty much a given. In fact we usually fair better than Atlanta in those cases as well. Here's rooting for you Atlanta.

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IMO, hardly anyone in NC will be worried about this being too far south 2 days from now

 

LOL...yep.  To be honest, we literally can't be happy with any model run right now, if it shows a perfect storm track dumping 4-8" across the area we would be worried about the north trend, this slightly weaker GFS run we are worried about a non-event. 

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Please enlighten a newbie as to what the "EE rule" is. I'm usually pretty good at sleuthing the acronyms but that one eludes me...

 

RULE #7 DOUBLE EE RULE

When the 60 - 84 Hour ETA matches the ECMWF day 3-4 at surface and 500 MB that is a pretty good winning hand. Take it to the bank.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/4534-dts-rules-for-mediumextended-forecasting/?p=141037

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