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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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Are you all in this time? The trends have certainly been impressive. More room to the upside on QPF too.

 

Been burned all winter at this range, 12z tomorrow there should be a consensus.  Somehow the MA will get more snow out of this then we do.  The Euro track is great but we are 30 miles away from a 1-2" event...the 0z from last night was almost identical QPF wise to the 12z yesterday.  It was good in a way to see back to back consistent runs.

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Here's the total QPF by early Thursday morning:

 

L5ZP5G6.png

 

 

850s seem to stay below freezing for all of WNC for the entirety of the storm.  North GA goes below 0 shortly after precip arrives, as does upstate SC.  The midlands go back and forth and far eastern NC doesn't seem to ever go below 0 at 850 mb.

over an inch of QPF for ATL. Hopefully it's mostly snow.
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Been burned all winter at this range, 12z tomorrow there should be a consensus.  Somehow the MA will get more snow out of this then we do.  The Euro track is great but we are 30 miles away from a 1-2" event...the 0z from last night was almost identical QPF wise to the 12z yesterday.  It was good in a way to see back to back consistent runs.

Look at the gradient again across Wake. Northern parts are .4/.5 and I'm .7/.8. It'll change for sure, but there should be a nice deform band setting up across parts of the area with snow banding setting up.

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RE: Subject of FFC warnings

 

Going to be interesting balancing giving folks ample warning of a major storm to not confusing the public with two events.

people in Georgia are not used to winter weather so I think a lot of people would get very confused if they issued a watch for Wednesday before this event in the morning is over,
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over an inch of QPF for ATL. Hopefully it's mostly snow.

Yeah, I see that that this particular 12Z NAM map has 1" qpf for ATL. The map I saw at the NWS site had 0.75", which is more in line with the Euro. At this point, I'm going with 0.75" as a good middle of the road prediction should it actually take this great path. That is plenty for a big snow in ATL. Allowing for some not accumulating mainly near the start (typical when ground marginal), I think this is pointing to about a 6" fall for much of he area.

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Yeah, I see that that this particular 12Z NAM map has 1" qpf for ATL. The map I saw at the NWS site had 0.75", which is more in line with the Euro. At this point, I'm going with 0.75" as a good middle of the road prediction should it actually take this great path. That is plenty for a big snow in ATL. Allowing for some not accumulating mainly near the start (typical when ground marginal), I think this is pointing to about a 6" fall for much of he area.

its too good to be true. Just praying something horrible doesn't happen in the next 48 hours
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It will be fine once rates pick up. This is the big one we've been waiting for.

 

lol.  I hope so! Matt East is all in (as all in as a TV met can be :) )....that's a first this year so I'm certainly feeling good about that.  Let's see what 12Z says. 

 

It is rather interesting how the CLT local weather channels had nothing about this threat this morning.  WBTV this morning was completely dry for Wed/Thurs.  NWS was not really enthused either.  That's kinda holding back my excitement....I'm like looking behind my back waiting for someone to sucker punch me!

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Could this finally be the big snow Atlanta has been waiting for? I am getting so excited. With a potential 1-3 inches tonight, then the big dog Wednesday, this could be one of the best weeks for snow in Atlanta on record.

if everything goes PERFECTLY, then this could be atl'a biggest snowstorm in over 30 years. I'm not holding my breath though. Lots can change between now and Wednesday.
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lol.  I hope so! Matt East is all in (as all in as a TV met can be :) )....that's a first this year so I'm certainly feeling good about that.  Let's see what 12Z says. 

 

It is rather interesting how the CLT local weather channels had nothing about this threat this morning.  WBTV this morning was completely dry for Wed/Thurs.  NWS was not really enthused either.  That's kinda holding back my excitement....I'm like looking behind my back waiting for someone to sucker punch me!

 

That is how it was here, too. Now WRAL is starting to talk about it. I guess they just wanted to make sure the model runs from yesterday were not a fluke. Hard to deny what they are showing now.

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Could this finally be the big snow Atlanta has been waiting for? I am getting so excited. With a potential 1-3 inches tonight, then the big dog Wednesday, this could be one of the best weeks for snow in Atlanta on record.

Well, I can tell you what the myth is in the upstate of SC....all our snows come from Atlanta.

So, cheers to hoping a week of I-85 winter weather specials!

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lol.  I hope so! Matt East is all in (as all in as a TV met can be :) )....that's a first this year so I'm certainly feeling good about that.  Let's see what 12Z says. 

 

It is rather interesting how the CLT local weather channels had nothing about this threat this morning.  WBTV this morning was completely dry for Wed/Thurs.  NWS was not really enthused either.  That's kinda holding back my excitement....I'm like looking behind my back waiting for someone to sucker punch me!

WRAL here barely mentioned it this morning. Maybe rain changing to snow, but they weren't impressed. If trends hold through the day, their position will change this evening.

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RE: Subject of FFC warnings

 

Going to be interesting balancing giving folks ample warning of a major storm to not confusing the public with two events. 

Yeah. Honestly, I think hoisting a Watch for this event when the WWA tomorrow morning expires is maybe the best plan given the likely timing for the area.

 

Also gives them another 24 hours of modeling to go on, which I'm sure they'd appreciate.

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WRAL here barely mentioned it this morning. Maybe rain changing to snow, but they weren't impressed. If trends hold through the day, their position will change this evening.

 

Mike Moss posted something about it on facebook this morning. But he said the usual models have been changing, it could go north or south, etc. Not sure how they can deny the models are converging on agreement now. 

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NAM is solidly all snow for RDU for the duration...but it's the NAM at 60 hours, useless, tomorrow 12z may have some use.

 

Its all about the track, if the storm actually goes where the models are taking it temps will be fine for most everyone and we will see quite a bit of snow a general 4-8" event for a nice hunk of NC.....

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The NAM at the surface reminds me of the March 1st storm a few years back for Carolinas. It was a closed upper system that with rain changing to snow with temps in the mid-upper 30's. Precip changed to sleet then heavy snow. Temperatures fluctuated between 32 and 33 degrees but snow still accumulated to about 5-6 inches. Even got a clap or two of thunder. Just west of here in the southern foothills of NC got clobbered with 8-12inches. If dynamics really get going that could be possible for someone as well. I believe that system was a bit more energetic though so well see.

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lol.  I hope so! Matt East is all in (as all in as a TV met can be :) )....that's a first this year so I'm certainly feeling good about that.  Let's see what 12Z says. 

 

It is rather interesting how the CLT local weather channels had nothing about this threat this morning.  WBTV this morning was completely dry for Wed/Thurs.  NWS was not really enthused either.  That's kinda holding back my excitement....I'm like looking behind my back waiting for someone to sucker punch me!

 

And yet 2 or 3 days before the weekend's system, it was still touting snow with "heavy" accumulations possible.  What I did receive?  Not a single snowflake nor a raindrop, just as the models predicted. LOL

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I have a feeling they read AmericanWX and laugh at all us model watchers!! They are spot on...it is a suckers bet and generally does NOT happen. I love weather watching like all of you....I want a good snow like all of you...but I would not have the type of expectations being generated.

 

Yet on their hazardous weather outlook, they say that conditions should support snow Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

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Mike Moss posted something about it on facebook this morning. But he said the usual models have been changing, it could go north or south, etc. Not sure how they can deny the models are converging on agreement now.

Didn't see that. But Elizabeth Gardner just showed the same graphics from last night's newscast (which she always does) and didn't really talk much about it.

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Didn't see that. But Elizabeth Gardner just showed the same graphics from last night's newscast (which she always does) and didn't really talk much about it.

 

Here's what Mike Moss posted this morning before the NAM run.

 

 

Here's a peek at a situation we're watching for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning this week, when low pressure passing by to our southeast may combine with cold air flowing in from the north to produce rain over coastal and southeastern NC and potentially some wintry precipitation farther northwest. Because the surface low and an associated upper-level disturbance could very well move faster or slower, be stronger or weaker, or track farther northwest or southeast than current projections (which have been varying a good bit), it remains too early to provide meaningful precipitation estimates. Nonetheless, it's worth checking in frequently on forecast updates on ‪#‎WRAL‬and at wral.com/weather as we move closer to Wednesday and get a better fix on what to expect.

 

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