WeatherNC Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Cold air seems to be the main issue at this point as moisture has trended northward. If anywhere is going to get it done, I'd say it would be Raleigh and points West IF** cold air damning sets up a bit earlier/stronger than anticipated. Trends have worked in our favor but still a long ways to go. The set up for the weekend in particular does look a lot better but its also 6 days out so a lot can change there. A sky of Mon/Tues Stars, cold air chasing,no way critical thick is crashing from RNK to PGV in 12hrs. Tail end yes, it will, classic case of cold air playing ketchup, only to have the big player coming though late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We've seen the ensembles show great patterns and storm threats a lot this winter when the ops were not. Unfortunately, they haven't performeduch better. I don't know why...maybe it's just the lower resolution. But neither the GEFS nor the EPS have givene a lot of confidence this year. true, although with last weeks system we were in the money 96hrs out only to have the low trend nw within 72 hrs or so. all things considered i love this look both with the op and ensembles 96 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 true, although with last weeks system we were in the money 96hrs out only to have the low trend nw within 72 hrs or so. all things considered i love this look both with the op and ensembles 96 hrs out. I agree, although I'd like to see a more robust depiction of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I agree, although I'd like to see a more robust depiction of cold air.We don't need to look at the cold now, just track! It will be there with the right track or dynamic cooling , FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The GEFS members themselves were not impressive. 9/21 were whiffs, 5-6 good hits and 5-6 that were amped/warm. Hopefully that starts to improve in the next few runs, still 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The GEFS members themselves were not impressive. 9/21 were whiffs, 5-6 good hits and 5-6 that were amped/warm. Hopefully that starts to improve in the next few runs, still 4-5 days out. What about the weekend system. The mean looks really suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We don't need to look at the cold now, just track! It will be there with the right track or dynamic cooling , FTW I think it should be the other way around. Cold air should be in place before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 What about the weekend system. The mean looks really suppressed A few hits, several suppressed that whiff and some amped ones. Ton of spread, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That is the super wedge of all wedge's for next weekend on the GFS.. not sure I've ever seen that perfect of a wedge actually verify. It's normally something you see on a 300hr panel. I was just saying earlier to someone I have never seen the GFS see a wedge that well on numerical data this far out, its surface printout for NE GA has 28 at ATL, usually at 5-7 days the GFS although it may show the wedge on the surface plot won't see it in the numerical data and will spit out a temp of 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I was just saying earlier to someone I have never seen the GFS see a wedge that well on numerical data this far out, its surface printout for NE GA has 28 at ATL, usually at 5-7 days the GFS although it may show the wedge on the surface plot won't see it in the numerical data and will spit out a temp of 45.This may just be a random theory, but IF the Thursday storm works out and we get a few inches of snow, that should definately help keep it colder for the Saturday storm? Maybe it's picking up on that? If not, that wedge could be underestimated, even as cold as already modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 nam looks rain to snow for monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looks like the chance of some wintry weather keeps increasing for Monday as we get closer. Could we get a trifector next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 nam looks rain to snow for monday. Looks good , but my eyes are drawn to Texas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The NAM is giving North GA some love Tuesday morning.... So what is that now.. 4 threats of snow for the southeast over the next 7 days?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The NAM is giving North GA some love Tuesday morning.... So what is that now.. 4 threats of snow for the southeast over the next 7 days?? yep looks like snow atl north, not much moisture but it is something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 sc look good for some flurries thru hr 60, moisture much further north this run for tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 21Z SREF is showing a "mean" of close to .5 inches of snow on Monday for RDU around lunch or sooner... That has increased over the past couple runs... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 2/28 system has been and continues to be the more clearcut/widespread threat of the two threats for more of the SE. There's much colder air that is nearby and there's CAD. The midweek low isn't working with nearly the same level of cold air. Maybe some spots luck out with something, however. For me, the interest level is much higher for ~2/28. Don't count me out, lol. I've had a feeling about Tues/Wed/Thur that used to be Mon/Tues I've been thinking Tues or so would get me some across the middle of the state, and it's almost cold enough. Cold enough for a surprise attack anyway This is finally a chance to get a chance down here. I saw a few mote flakes yesterday, and a short period of mist sleet...kind of flea sized pellets...but I could hear them...so it was something. But nothing else, and no rain. All these things stop at the airport, and if they get here at all it's in the last instant, when it's too late to be anything but an hour of rain, after you had rain, or whatever, off and on for 12 or 15 hrs, lol. Now something wants to put me at the northern edge for a change...so let's show a bit more enthusiasm, if you please I'd like to be in the northern part of a humdinger little surprise storm..it's been years! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 NAM tries to throw back some precip around the midlands of SC late Tuesday, but only makes it to maybe I-77 before the Low goes way OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 nam was getting out of its useful range there with the tues low so we will see wht the gfs is showing. but monday's trends are looking good for central to eastern nc to see some snow/mix. no big accums but enough for a jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 NAM definitely has potential. The shift north was by 75-100 miles. Well see what the GFS does in a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The upcoming week feels a lot like Jan 2000. We had a period of a couple weeks where we had multiple threats but tough to nail down the timing of the SW's. It was not a question of if but when we were going to get the big dog here in upstate SC. Instead we only ended up with a couple of weenie dogs while those south of 85 got Great Daned. As I recall, the Carolina Crusher really only crystalized about 12 hours before it hit. Hope we see a widespread SE event this week but if not I feel someone is in for a surprise before next Saturday. Should be a fun week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I remember going to bed in January 2000 on the night of the event, and it was not forecast to be that big... But when I woke up, holy cow.....20 inches!!! I wonder how much the models have improved since then.... And no doubt, more people have access to them now as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Local TV mets talking about Monday chances now. And a couple of people have mentioned that this feels similar to Jan 2000. Not saying we will get anything like that next week, but the setup does seem familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Local TV mets talking about Monday chances now. And a couple of people have mentioned that this feels similar to Jan 2000. Not saying we will get anything like that next week, but the setup does seem familiar.lol.. you might see some snow showers after it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Local TV mets talking about Monday chances now. And a couple of people have mentioned that this feels similar to Jan 2000. Not saying we will get anything like that next week, but the setup does seem familiar.Who are these people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 lol.. you might see some snow showers after it rains. No one said it was anything big. But it is still something and just part of what could be a crazy week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Who are these people? Posters on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Ah I remeber that 10 day stretch. Best 10 day stretch ever. 8f would be awesome to get a crusher size even t repeat now that we have this board to be on. Think of all the big canes that hit NC late 90s along with Jan 2000, mega ice storm 2002 and the burns speacil Feb 2004. We haven't had anything of the magnitude, maybe the big Christmas snow a few years back, since these boards eastern, now american have taken off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Posters on here.People say that kind of stuff several times a winter, every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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