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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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If you take the axis of heaviest precip as the low track its about as perfect as it gets for a NC hit.....

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yes I understand that different models are telling us different things, but being 48 hours out, from a *potential* monster snowstorm, one would think winter storm watches would be posted for 1-20 corridor today. better to be safe than sorry right....

Yes I think you are correct. FFC and BHM have to be thinking about WSW for their afternoon packages, maybe even sooner.

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NAM is closer to the coast, inline with most other models.  Spits out a significant amt. of qpf, a reasonable amount however.  You can see the development of a comma head feature as it moves up and out that will keep it snowing in NC longer.

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NAM is closer to the coast, inline with most other models.  Spits out a significant amt. of qpf, a reasonable amount however.  You can see the development of a comma head feature as it moves up and out that will keep it snowing in NC longer.

just looked back at each gfs run from 06z yesterday.  it has come north and west with precip each time.  i think this 12z run coming up will be a big hit and finally come in line with the euro and nam.   06z this morn was close (actually had snow for rdu), but i think the 12z run finally shows our big dog.

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Yes I think you are correct. FFC and BHM have to be thinking about WSW for their afternoon packages, maybe even sooner.

Barring the models all coming to a consensus in the afternoon runs, uncertainty for a major event is probably still a bit too high to start hoisting 48+ hour WSWs.

 

I can see the first watches going up in MS/AL late Tuesday AM if the models are still showing a storm.

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The 12Z NAM has a classic major snowstorm for the ATL-AHN corridor (down at least to Tony's place) with qpf averaging near a whopping 0.75", which is close to what the Euro has been showing. The track is near perfect vs climo. With that much qpf and with 850's and 925's being conducive to snow accumulating, this would be a big deal. This could conceivably end up as a 6"ish snow in much of the area! The climo of very cold Feb's, especially with a Nino, supports the realistic possibility of a major storm there. The main q I have is whether or not the NAM is too cold since it is several degrees colder at 850 than the model consensus. It seems to have a good bit of dynamic cooling. Any opinions about how cold this is?

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NAM soundings for Charlotte suggest it starts as a rain/snow mix, then goes to snow as precip rates pickup and all layers are saturated.  Temps aloft are fairly comfortably cold, especially for this area...only issue in the profile is near the sfc before saturation.

 

Yeah, going to see some big fat flakes out of this one.  It should come down heavy enough to get accumulations started quick. Good snowman snow which the kids will enjoy.

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Barring the models all coming to a consensus in the afternoon runs, uncertainty for a major event is probably still a bit too high to start hoisting 48+ hour WSWs.

 

I can see the first watches going up in MS/AL late Tuesday AM if the models are still showing a storm.

This is going to confuse everyone in the CWA that's currently under and advisory for the impulse that will move thru tonight.

 

Can't say that I've ever been under a WWA & a WSWatch at the same time.

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The 12Z NAM has a classic major snowstorm for the ATL-AHN corridor (down at least to Tony's place) with qpf averaging near a whopping 0.75", which is close to what the Euro has been showing. The track is near perfect vs climo. With that much qpf and with 850's and 925's being conducive to snow accumulating, this would be a big deal. This could conceivably end up as a 6"ish snow in much of the area! The climo of very cold Feb's, especially with a Nino, supports the realistic possibility of a major storm there. The main q I have is whether or not the NAM is too cold since it is several degrees colder at 850 than the model consensus. It seems to have a good bit of dynamic cooling. Any opinions about how cold this is?

 

The NAM is impressive for ATL...

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Atlanta&mod=nam&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us

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NAM soundings for Charlotte suggest it starts as a rain/snow mix, then goes to snow as precip rates pickup and all layers are saturated.  Temps aloft are fairly comfortably cold, especially for this area...only issue in the profile is near the sfc before saturation.

 

This is my concern....as this point.  Seems like it's a good bet the track is going to be where we want it....the temps though are too warm for my liking.  You'd think though overnight Wednesday we'd have a good chance of dropping below freezining.

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This is my concern....as this point. Seems like it's a good bet the track is going to be where we want it....the temps though are too warm for my liking. You'd think though overnight Wednesday we'd have a good chance of dropping below freezining.

It will be fine once rates pick up. This is the big one we've been waiting for.
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