griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice stripe of 3+ inches over southern AK, northern AL, MS, GA, and almost all of NC on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 2m2 minutes ago Noting some nice h7 confluence/deformation over S VA / northern NC Thu with omega to 500mb, under vort track. #snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 wennie run incoming for on the 12z NAM as storm goes neg tilt. Still too far SE to be a huge weenie run for us but still a good thump of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wow, no shortage of precip for sure on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12 NAM 24 hour precip. at hour 75 (~.5 for RDU): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_075_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 yes I understand that different models are telling us different things, but being 48 hours out, from a *potential* monster snowstorm, one would think winter storm watches would be posted for 1-20 corridor today. better to be safe than sorry right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12 NAM 24 hour precip. at hour 75 (~.5 for RDU): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_075_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area If you take the axis of heaviest precip as the low track its about as perfect as it gets for a NC hit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Gonna need more qpf for this to be a big dog for NC with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 yes I understand that different models are telling us different things, but being 48 hours out, from a *potential* monster snowstorm, one would think winter storm watches would be posted for 1-20 corridor today. better to be safe than sorry right.... Yes I think you are correct. FFC and BHM have to be thinking about WSW for their afternoon packages, maybe even sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is closer to the coast, inline with most other models. Spits out a significant amt. of qpf, a reasonable amount however. You can see the development of a comma head feature as it moves up and out that will keep it snowing in NC longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yes I think you are correct. FFC and BHM have to be thinking about WSW for their afternoon packages, maybe even sooner. I think they might wait until tomorrow to avoid confusing the public. There is currently a winter weather advisory for late tonight, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Gonna need more qpf for this to be a big dog for NC with marginal temps. I think there's room for QPF to increase here. This should be a juicy system. Track looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is closer to the coast, inline with most other models. Spits out a significant amt. of qpf, a reasonable amount however. You can see the development of a comma head feature as it moves up and out that will keep it snowing in NC longer. Euro is wetter too, close to 1" QPF fot CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is closer to the coast, inline with most other models. Spits out a significant amt. of qpf, a reasonable amount however. You can see the development of a comma head feature as it moves up and out that will keep it snowing in NC longer. just looked back at each gfs run from 06z yesterday. it has come north and west with precip each time. i think this 12z run coming up will be a big hit and finally come in line with the euro and nam. 06z this morn was close (actually had snow for rdu), but i think the 12z run finally shows our big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yes I think you are correct. FFC and BHM have to be thinking about WSW for their afternoon packages, maybe even sooner. Barring the models all coming to a consensus in the afternoon runs, uncertainty for a major event is probably still a bit too high to start hoisting 48+ hour WSWs. I can see the first watches going up in MS/AL late Tuesday AM if the models are still showing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 12Z NAM has a classic major snowstorm for the ATL-AHN corridor (down at least to Tony's place) with qpf averaging near a whopping 0.75", which is close to what the Euro has been showing. The track is near perfect vs climo. With that much qpf and with 850's and 925's being conducive to snow accumulating, this would be a big deal. This could conceivably end up as a 6"ish snow in much of the area! The climo of very cold Feb's, especially with a Nino, supports the realistic possibility of a major storm there. The main q I have is whether or not the NAM is too cold since it is several degrees colder at 850 than the model consensus. It seems to have a good bit of dynamic cooling. Any opinions about how cold this is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM soundings for Charlotte suggest it starts as a rain/snow mix, then goes to snow as precip rates pickup and all layers are saturated. Temps aloft are fairly comfortably cold, especially for this area...only issue in the profile is near the sfc before saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM & Euro are absolute things of beauty for areas near ATL. IT appears the Northern Burbs get jackpotted with 4-8" totals. EE Rule in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So sorry but I'm too hungover from last night. Models look excellent I can't wait for my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM soundings for Charlotte suggest it starts as a rain/snow mix, then goes to snow as precip rates pickup and all layers are saturated. Temps aloft are fairly comfortably cold, especially for this area...only issue in the profile is near the sfc before saturation. Yeah, going to see some big fat flakes out of this one. It should come down heavy enough to get accumulations started quick. Good snowman snow which the kids will enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ITPBeeches Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Barring the models all coming to a consensus in the afternoon runs, uncertainty for a major event is probably still a bit too high to start hoisting 48+ hour WSWs. I can see the first watches going up in MS/AL late Tuesday AM if the models are still showing a storm. This is going to confuse everyone in the CWA that's currently under and advisory for the impulse that will move thru tonight. Can't say that I've ever been under a WWA & a WSWatch at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 12Z NAM has a classic major snowstorm for the ATL-AHN corridor (down at least to Tony's place) with qpf averaging near a whopping 0.75", which is close to what the Euro has been showing. The track is near perfect vs climo. With that much qpf and with 850's and 925's being conducive to snow accumulating, this would be a big deal. This could conceivably end up as a 6"ish snow in much of the area! The climo of very cold Feb's, especially with a Nino, supports the realistic possibility of a major storm there. The main q I have is whether or not the NAM is too cold since it is several degrees colder at 850 than the model consensus. It seems to have a good bit of dynamic cooling. Any opinions about how cold this is? The NAM is impressive for ATL... http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Atlanta&mod=nam&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The NAM is impressive for ATL... http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Atlanta&mod=nam&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Are you all in this time? The trends have certainly been impressive. More room to the upside on QPF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM soundings for Charlotte suggest it starts as a rain/snow mix, then goes to snow as precip rates pickup and all layers are saturated. Temps aloft are fairly comfortably cold, especially for this area...only issue in the profile is near the sfc before saturation. This is my concern....as this point. Seems like it's a good bet the track is going to be where we want it....the temps though are too warm for my liking. You'd think though overnight Wednesday we'd have a good chance of dropping below freezining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12Z NAM snowfall map looks healthy for basically all of NC, upstate SC, and northern GA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Somehow, someway, i foresee Roanoke getting hammered. This thing needs to stop the NW trend now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Are you all in this time? The trends have certainly been impressive. More room to the upside on QPF too. i will say sref plume are impressive for rdu. mean is 3.10 and we have quite a few big dogs around the 5-7" range. will be interested in seeing how they trend as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here's the total QPF by early Thursday morning: 850s seem to stay below freezing for all of WNC for the entirety of the storm. North GA goes below 0 shortly after precip arrives, as does upstate SC. The midlands go back and forth and far eastern NC doesn't seem to ever go below 0 at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This is my concern....as this point. Seems like it's a good bet the track is going to be where we want it....the temps though are too warm for my liking. You'd think though overnight Wednesday we'd have a good chance of dropping below freezining.It will be fine once rates pick up. This is the big one we've been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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