mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Maybe temps will be 5 or so degrees colder than modeled, like the last storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 do you guys think tennessee will get in on the snow threat wednesday night S/E TN for sure, depends on how far north the low ticks once it reaches the gulf. I never would have guessed at 60 hours out last week that event would give the mid-Atlantic 3-5". The trends all winter have for these events to tick stronger and more north inside 72 hours out. We are still a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 haha get used to it. The rain/snow line will probably set up around Burgaw/Whiteville just to spite Wilmington folk lol In FAY, long-timers used to refer to the Bunnlevel Line ... the cutoff for traditionally big snow. If it was a Miller A setup, folks north and west of the Bunnlevel Line would have a better chance. If it's coming over the mountains, they'd likely be the only folks seeing anything. Dang! I hope we're not getting ready to be Bunnleveled again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 S/E TN for sure, depends on how far north the low ticks once it reaches the gulf. I never would have guessed at 60 hours out last week that event would give the mid-Atlantic 3-5". The trends all winter have for these events to tick stronger and more north inside 72 hours out. We are still a long ways out. Matthew East said it might tick north some, but only so far north it can go this time with the big low in SE Canada and the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I haven't looked at the SREF's yet but they are always to far NW and warm at this range. They start getting useful inside 36 hours. I remember last week at 36-48 hours out the mean SLP was tracking to KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 From news 14, Nam model Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/569850878531805185?s=09 Robert has a tweet on his account with a pic of the hi Res Nam at 60hR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 In FAY, long-timers used to refer to the Bunnlevel Line ... the cutoff for traditionally big snow. If it was a Miller A setup, folks north and west of the Bunnlevel Line would have a better chance. If it's coming over the mountains, they'd likely be the only folks seeing anything. Dang! I hope we're not getting ready to be Bunnleveled again! correct me if I'm wrong but I think this is a Miller A storm, is it not guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm just not sold on this yet... The SREF mean for RDU is 3 inches, but that is with some large outliers. Take out the outliers and it drops to 1-2 inches... couple that with starting as rain and temps spiking on thursday afternoon, and I just don't see it being a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm just not sold on this yet... The SREF mean for RDU is 3 inches, but that is with some large outliers. Take out the outliers and it drops to 1-2 inches... couple that with starting as rain and temps spiking on thursday afternoon, and I just don't see it being a big deal. I'm confused what model shows this starting as rain? Not nws or tv forecast. You are in Raleigh right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm basing it off the SREF showing POPs of rain before cold air is entrenched... and previous NWS discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm basing it off the SREF showing POPs of rain before cold air is entrenched... and previous NWS discussions. It is always wise to take the conservative approach with expectations. Less QPF and a longer transition from rain to snow is usually the right bet with marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm just not sold on this yet... The SREF mean for RDU is 3 inches, but that is with some large outliers. Take out the outliers and it drops to 1-2 inches... couple that with starting as rain and temps spiking on thursday afternoon, and I just don't see it being a big deal. It may not start as rain and if it does it will be briefly, temps are likely overdone at the surface especially if it takes the offshore track, lastly the temps creeping to the mid to upper 30's isnt exactly spiking and depending on when it ends and how much snow falls it wont be that big of a deal. Tempering your hopes isnt a bad thing and this thing can still get away from us. personally I like the fact that the SREFS are either all big dogs or nothing, basically its saying if the track is offshore we are going to get hammered if it trends NW its all rain,.....that to me is much better than a mixed bag of mess with this storm we either get hammered or nothing. Im a glass half full kinda guy when it comes to these storms and this setup is damn nice and could really produce a epic storm in a lot of NC.....we are inside 72 hrs and the models more or less all agree its gonna happen the details still are a little shaky but I like where we sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So, my question about Wilmington, NC and why it never receives snow which is directly related to this storm and it doing the same can not be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not sure if someone has already posted this, but this snippet from GSP's disco says it all: THAT BEING SAID...THE EXPERIENCED READER UNDERSTANDS THAT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO SNOW BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING IS USUALLY A SUCKERS BET. FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENTERTAIN ISSUING ANY WEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUR EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS WE MOVE FORWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So, my question about Wilmington, NC and why it never receives snow which is directly related to this storm and it doing the same can not be posted? take imby posts to the banter thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z nam is wetter still so far..maybe a hair further north or slower with the surface low. the composite imagery is just a thing of beauty through 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Maybe temps will be 5 or so degrees colder than modeled, like the last storm! I'm pretty sure that is what the local NWS is waiting to confirm. This one is just too close to call right now. So if I'm the NWS out at GSP, I lean to what they are thinking...just based on history. 9 times out of 10, the scenarios they are forecasting are right and the models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nam is gonna be north negative tilt earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It is always wise to take the conservative approach with expectations. Less QPF and a longer transition from rain to snow is usually the right bet with marginal situations. Hopefully the EURO is right and it stays as snow throughout. I couldn't agree more with GSP, rain changing to snow is just terrible. Would love to see a high pop to our NE to get some CAD and get surface temps below freezing. Also, while I'm at it... would like to see the GFS come on board at 12Z with the rest of the modeling. Seems like this one is right on the edge. Could go huge storm, to nothing at this point based on track and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I only go out to hr 57 but it does look good: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_057_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 damn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Discussion from Wakefield NWS. M /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL BRING SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE WEATHER. WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...THE COLD WILL NOT BE AS BRUTAL AS THE PAST WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MID WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PCPN SHOULD GENERALLY BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS VARIOUS CHANCES FOR PCPN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 20S TO 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARM TO THE UPR 40S AND 50S BY SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WARMING TO THE MID 30S NEAR THE SE VA/NE NC COAST SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm just not sold on this yet... The SREF mean for RDU is 3 inches, but that is with some large outliers. Take out the outliers and it drops to 1-2 inches... couple that with starting as rain and temps spiking on thursday afternoon, and I just don't see it being a big deal. I think you should read Matthew East's blog post. I was not sold either this morning, but his post made me more excited about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 damn.. How are 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z NAM keeping with the trend... sfc low near the SE coast at 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 wennie run incoming for on the 12z NAM as storm goes neg tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not sure if someone has already posted this, but this snippet from GSP's disco says it all: THAT BEING SAID...THE EXPERIENCED READER UNDERSTANDS THAT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TO SNOW BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING IS USUALLY A SUCKERS BET. FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TO ENTERTAIN ISSUING ANY WEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUR EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AS WE MOVE FORWARD. I have a feeling they read AmericanWX and laugh at all us model watchers!! They are spot on...it is a suckers bet and generally does NOT happen. I love weather watching like all of you....I want a good snow like all of you...but I would not have the type of expectations being generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is just a small tick northwest of previous run....very small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Anybody have the latest Euro clown map for Thursday? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 oh man nam is great, big hit for nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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