Batman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 i was going to say..those in nc should be hoping that's not right either lol Exactly. A Columbus, GA. track is a rainstorm for virtually all of the SE outside of the mountains of NC/TN. Hopefully, that remains an outlier. James Spann in Birmingham mentions the strong possibility of this being a high impact event with significant snow for the Birmingham/I-20 area in Alabama. Kirk Mellish of ATL punts and says nothing other than this week will be highly changeable from day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 i was going to say..those in nc should be hoping that's not right either lol Verbatim, it shows the 850 freezing line from GSP to around FAY. The 2m temps are in the low to mid 30s. A heavy wet snow to say the least. It's the NAVGEM people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 How did the 6z GEFS look, WOW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah, I am not saying the NAVGEM is going to be correct at all. It was brought up so I posted it for others to see. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 1) Actually, now that I see the 6Z NAVGEM track, it is actually not as far north as Columbus though it is still a fair bit further north than the ideal path for mainly snow at ATL-AHN and a clear northern outlier. 2) Is that some CAD showing up on this run? If so, could we be seeing more IP/ZR than earlier thought if there is CAD? I am noticing a bit of CAD perhaps pop in as the trends are showing more separation between the PV and our storm, allowing HP to nose in. That's a good thing for sfc temps. GFS is showing it a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Latest SREF run is in and it actually runs a track very similar to the NAVGEM. N GA is in the bullseye of heaviest precip that could be snow. I don't know about temps with it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 As usual the models are showing southeastern NC as just rain. LOL we never get snow down here used to live in Fayetteville, NC and just moved down here and that is the only thing I miss is my snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here is the navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I am noticing a bit of CAD perhaps pop in as the trends are showing more separation between the PV and our storm, allowing HP to nose in. That's a good thing for sfc temps. GFS is showing it a bit as well. Typically in these setups the cold does better than forecast with strong lows 100-150 miles off NC coast. I wouldnt be surprised to see temps down into the mid to upper 20's for a lot of NC during the event, hopefully the models trend colder the last day or so leading up to these storms. Call me optimistic but this will be the best storm statewide in NC since Dec 25-26 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Exactly. A Columbus, GA. track is a rainstorm for virtually all of the SE outside of the mountains of NC/TN. Hopefully, that remains an outlier. James Spann in Birmingham mentions the strong possibility of this being a high impact event with significant snow for the Birmingham/I-20 area in Alabama. Kirk Mellish of ATL punts and says nothing other than this week will be highly changeable from day to day. There are going to be quite a few people caught off guard if we end up getting a euro type snow storm. with regard to this storm, Local media here keeps saying rain, mainly south of atlanta, and temps in the 40s. fwiw the 06z rgem, at least with precip, seems to be wetter and further north with it than the 0z gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 One thing that is helping with temperatures is that the low isn't turning the corner and moving up the NC coast. Instead, it is moving more ENE out to sea. Same with the 850mb low...Euro and GFS both have the 850 low tracking from SE Alabama to Myrtle Beach, then ENE from there. The soundings I've seen don't have a warm nose. It's a rain or snow situation with the 850 low tracking that far south. Euro and GFS would be majority snow in Charlotte. Let's see if they hold with the key features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Verbatim, it shows the 850 freezing line from GSP to around FAY. The 2m temps are in the low to mid 30s. A heavy wet snow to say the least. It's the NAVGEM people I'm a little surprised at it's temp fields since a track like that would almost surely be warmer. But it's the nav so i don't really care much Latest SREF run is in and it actually runs a track very similar to the NAVGEM. N GA is in the bullseye of heaviest precip that could be snow. I don't know about temps with it though it's surface low track is much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice to see WPC on board for NC and looking at a Euro/UK blend. It would be good to have the models that show the best scenario on our side for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Latest SREF run is in and it actually runs a track very similar to the NAVGEM. N GA is in the bullseye of heaviest precip that could be snow. I don't know about temps with it though Another further north track? Hopefully, this is not a sign of a further north track than what the GFS/Euro have been showing as that wouldn't be what I'd want to see for ATL-AHN based on history. Edit: never mind. Lookout clarified that is not the case thank goodness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 wonder when gsp will bye in to a winter storm, we are within three days with all the models I think showing winter precip for the whole area basically. possible heavy snow accum in some areas. thought by now gsp confidence would be growing. wpc this morning showed a strip from n.ga, upstate thru wnc thru central nc with a 40 percent chance of > 4 inches of snow and 10 percent chance of the same area receiving > 8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Very encouraging blog post from Matthew East. A much more significant system will then roll into the region by Wednesday night. While some computer modeling has been indicating a suppressed solution where more of the precipitation remains south of a large portion of NC, I do not feel this is correct. At this point, I favor a solution of a surface low tracking from near the FL Panhandle to just off the Carolina coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. What can go wrong? First of all, there is only so far NW this can trend this time around due to the big low in SE Canada and the Northeast, so some additional NW ticks are possible, but I don't think this winds up a big rainstorm for western and central NC. Areas in northern SC though...it could get trickier.If they energy is more strung out, then a weaker, further south solution is possible. That is definitely a possibility, but I don't think it's a likelihood at this point.In fact, history tells me that if anything, we might see that upper level energy trend stronger as the models begin to 'see' it better. But we will see. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/2015/02/accumulating-snow-ahead.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 One thing that is helping with temperatures is that the low isn't turning the corner and moving up the NC coast. Instead, it is moving more ENE out to sea. Same with the 850mb low...Euro and GFS both have the 850 low tracking from SE Alabama to Myrtle Beach, then ENE from there. The soundings I've seen don't have a warm nose. It's a rain or snow situation with the 850 low tracking that far south. Euro and GFS would be majority snow in Charlotte. Let's see if they hold with the key features.does the snow make it into asheville area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 As usual the models are showing southeastern NC as just rain. LOL we never get snow down here used to live in Fayetteville, NC and just moved down here and that is the only thing I miss is my snow chances. haha get used to it. The rain/snow line will probably set up around Burgaw/Whiteville just to spite Wilmington folk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm a little surprised at it's temp fields since a track like that would almost surely be warmer. But it's the nav so i don't really care much it's surface low track is much further south Ah I see, thanks. Those are precip spreads and I forgot that when looking at the map. Of course the low would be south of the heaviest stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF plumes look good. 4" for Greensboro and over three for most NC locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 does the snow make it into asheville area? Euro gives you a light snow...GFS, very light...models are generally trending with more precip amounts though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro gives you a light snow...GFS, very light...models are generally trending with more precip amounts though What does it look like for the York/Rock Hill area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 haha get used to it. The rain/snow line will probably set up around Burgaw/Whiteville just to spite Wilmington folk lol As long as I can have the great summer days and good fishing I am okay with it. Just weird this area gets screwed so much I do not understand why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF plumes look good. 4" for Greensboro and over three for most NC locations. Matches up well with the euro clown. The lollipop zone will be an easy 4-8 with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 wonder when gsp will bye in to a winter storm, we are within three days with all the models I think showing winter precip for the whole area basically. possible heavy snow accum in some areas. thought by now gsp confidence would be growing. wpc this morning showed a strip from n.ga, upstate thru wnc thru central nc with a 40 percent chance of > 4 inches of snow and 10 percent chance of the same area receiving > 8 inches of snow. Easy on WPC. We had 50% chance of 8 inches for last Monday's storm 72 hours out, but that didn't quite work out well. Things does look promising so far, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 At 60 hours out for last weeks event was when we saw the big jumps north, that will be today's 12z runs for this event. It seems like Euro is always to far NW at this range but with GFS/GEFS ticking that way it will probably be a blend of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 At 60 hours out for last weeks event was when we saw the big jumps north, that will be today's 12z runs for this event. It seems like Euro is always to far NW at this range but with GFS/GEFS ticking that way it will probably be a blend of the two. Agree. I'm going to be even more conservative than you and wait for tonight's 00z runs before I get too excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 At 60 hours out for last weeks event was when we saw the big jumps north, that will be today's 12z runs for this event. It seems like Euro is always to far NW at this range but with GFS/GEFS ticking that way it will probably be a blend of the two.do you guys think tennessee will get in on the snow threat wednesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF plumes look good. 4" for Greensboro and over three for most NC locations. Great to see them recover some. Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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