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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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So since the 6z NAVGEM was brought up. I am just going to leave this here.

Take it with a few grains of salt, etc. etc.

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-02-23 at 7.40.04 AM.png

With the SLP tracking across Columbus, GA per an earlier post, we'd probably be looking at a very wet rainstorm in most places of the SE per the 6Z NAVGEM. So, hopefully this is way off. But those in VA probably like it.
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With the SLP tracking across Columbus, GA per an earlier post, we'd probably be looking at a very wet rainstorm in most places of the SE per the 6Z NAVGEM. So, hopefully this is way off. But those in VA probably like it.

i was going to say..those in nc should be hoping that's not right either lol

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If the SLP is tracking across Columbus, GA, I have a pretty good idea that the 0C 850 line is quite far up north. I doubt that RDU would get much, if any, snow unless there's some backside.

Thanks, Larry. I am very concerned about cold air with this one. This is my main concern. These situations where cold comes in at the same time or just after precip starts are very difficult to work out. I think low level cold is going to be a problem, at the very least.

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Thanks, Larry. I am very concerned about cold air with this one. This is my main concern. These situations where cold comes in at the same time or just after precip starts are very difficult to work out. I think low level cold is going to be a problem, at the very least.

 

I agree Cold Rain...2m temps are definitely concerning imo.  Hopefully we'll see a trend to colder temps.

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Thanks, Larry. I am very concerned about cold air with this one. This is my main concern. These situations where cold comes in at the same time or just after precip starts are very difficult to work out. I think low level cold is going to be a problem, at the very least.

Fortunately, the NAVGEM is usually wrong and is a far northern outlier with a track over Columbus, GA. I can't think of any other models within 100 miles of that.

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Fortunately, the NAVGEM is usually wrong and is a far northern outlier with a track over Columbus, GA. I can't think of any other models within 100 miles of that.

Yeah agreed. Temps are still going to be borderline for many and we're going to have to rely on dynamic cooling to some extent. It's why I love an established air mass.

Thanks for the info, guys!

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Verbatim at the warmest the 0 850 line runs from GSP to just south of CLT right through RDU then to the NC/VA border.

Its hard to tell about surface temps using the wxbell maps but it looks like most of us are near or just above 32.

With a 6Z NAVGEM track over Columbus, GA (as per earlier post), the warmest 850 GSP to RDU is 0C? That's much colder than I would have guessed. Strange. What is it for ATL? A track like that is almost always way too far north for snow on the frontside at ATL-AHN.

Edit: I see it is +3 at ATL-AHN which would obviously be too warm for snow there.

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So, the Euro, UK, and NAM all look good and keep trending better for here. GFS still not on board all the way yet. But in reality we are 3 to 4 days out and still don't have a clue if precip or temps will work. It looks better but still not very confident. Local media still saying dry for Thursday.

3-4 days ??? Try two

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Not too bad really. 850s at 66 are basically identical to those at 72. Here see for yourself:

72:

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-02-23 at 8.06.14 AM.png

1) Actually, now that I see the 6Z NAVGEM track, it is actually not as far north as Columbus though it is still a fair bit further north than the ideal path for mainly snow at ATL-AHN and a clear northern outlier.

2) Is that some CAD showing up on this run? If so, could we be seeing more IP/ZR than earlier thought if there is CAD?

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