Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Matthew east video, Check out @eastwx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/eastwx/status/569811013916356608?s=09 Saw on facebook he said odds are decent that many in NC see accumulating snow midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yep, local fox met said maybe an inch tomorrow , rain on wed with high of 45 and 47 on Thursday Going to be a shock come Thur morning , I believe! Kendra Kent? Lol...that weather team has been a joke since Andy Wood left.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Kendra Kent? Lol...that weather team has been a joke since Andy Wood left..Yeah, very true!On the 6z GFS , the storm looks ok, but man, that is a very thin stripe of snow on the NW side verbatim. Any shift N, may be looking at rain!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wow! We are in the 10% hatch of the NWS outlook , for greater than 8 " of snow! That's awesome Sam Champion on TWC , just said 3-5 in Greenville by Thursday !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 No man! We see snow if you count a slight Flizzard? I'm done with this crap. We aren't getting that huge Winter storm here obviously. Dude....can we please have less of the complaining with each post? You do realize that you live in western South Carolina and not Barrow, Alaska, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So since the 6z NAVGEM was brought up. I am just going to leave this here. Take it with a few grains of salt, etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So since the 6z NAVGEM was brought up. I am just going to leave this here. Take it with a few grains of salt, etc. etc. Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 7.40.04 AM.png Great googly moogly. o O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Well I think yall get snow in NC for sure, don't know how much yet, but I think the heaviest will along I-20 thru Al and Ga potentially. I just don't know how strong this can get due to the PV flexing. We will see. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So since the 6z NAVGEM was brought up. I am just going to leave this here. Take it with a few grains of salt, etc. etc. Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 7.40.04 AM.png With the SLP tracking across Columbus, GA per an earlier post, we'd probably be looking at a very wet rainstorm in most places of the SE per the 6Z NAVGEM. So, hopefully this is way off. But those in VA probably like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So since the 6z NAVGEM was brought up. I am just going to leave this here. Take it with a few grains of salt, etc. etc. How are temps looking on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 How are temps looking on it? If the SLP is tracking across Columbus, GA, I have a pretty good idea that the 0C 850 line is quite far up north. I doubt that RDU would get much, if any, snow unless there's some backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I would not want to forecast this right now near ATL...if you look just at the surface you'd think this is snow due to the precip rates likely being high...the NAM/GFS show 36/28 or so when it starts precipitating, thats likely snow with anything steady falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So since the 6z NAVGEM was brought up. I am just going to leave this here. Take it with a few grains of salt, etc. etc. Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 7.40.04 AM.png Is that QPF or snow total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 With the SLP tracking across Columbus, GA per an earlier post, we'd probably be looking at a very wet rainstorm in most places of the SE per the 6Z NAVGEM. So, hopefully this is way off. But those in VA probably like it. i was going to say..those in nc should be hoping that's not right either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Is that QPF or snow total? Qpf. Almost all rain your area I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If the SLP is tracking across Columbus, GA, I have a pretty good idea that the 0C 850 line is quite far up north. I doubt that RDU would get much, if any, snow unless there's some backside. Thanks, Larry. I am very concerned about cold air with this one. This is my main concern. These situations where cold comes in at the same time or just after precip starts are very difficult to work out. I think low level cold is going to be a problem, at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here is the Euro snowfall map. Usual caveats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Thanks, Larry. I am very concerned about cold air with this one. This is my main concern. These situations where cold comes in at the same time or just after precip starts are very difficult to work out. I think low level cold is going to be a problem, at the very least. I agree Cold Rain...2m temps are definitely concerning imo. Hopefully we'll see a trend to colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 i was going to say..those in nc should be hoping that's not right either lol WPC best low track map has the low going from the gulf over northern florida southern Georgia and exiting off the coastline south of the south carolina border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Thanks, Larry. I am very concerned about cold air with this one. This is my main concern. These situations where cold comes in at the same time or just after precip starts are very difficult to work out. I think low level cold is going to be a problem, at the very least. Fortunately, the NAVGEM is usually wrong and is a far northern outlier with a track over Columbus, GA. I can't think of any other models within 100 miles of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 How are temps looking on it? Verbatim at the warmest the 0 850 line runs from GSP to just south of CLT right through RDU then to the NC/VA border. Its hard to tell about surface temps using the wxbell maps but it looks like most of us are near or just above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 How are temps looking on it? Not too bad really. 850s at 66 are basically identical to those at 72. Here see for yourself: 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Fortunately, the NAVGEM is usually wrong and is a far northern outlier with a track over Columbus, GA. I can't think of any other models within 100 miles of that.Yeah agreed. Temps are still going to be borderline for many and we're going to have to rely on dynamic cooling to some extent. It's why I love an established air mass.Thanks for the info, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Verbatim at the warmest the 0 850 line runs from GSP to just south of CLT right through RDU then to the NC/VA border. Its hard to tell about surface temps using the wxbell maps but it looks like most of us are near or just above 32. With a 6Z NAVGEM track over Columbus, GA (as per earlier post), the warmest 850 GSP to RDU is 0C? That's much colder than I would have guessed. Strange. What is it for ATL? A track like that is almost always way too far north for snow on the frontside at ATL-AHN. Edit: I see it is +3 at ATL-AHN which would obviously be too warm for snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So, the Euro, UK, and NAM all look good and keep trending better for here. GFS still not on board all the way yet. But in reality we are 3 to 4 days out and still don't have a clue if precip or temps will work. It looks better but still not very confident. Local media still saying dry for Thursday. 3-4 days ??? Try two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Then hr 78: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That's a bummer it would be all rain. Edit: I see I am right on the line for rain or winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's the NAVGEM why are we breaking down the NAVGEM ????? Was it not developed as a tropical model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not too bad really. 850s at 66 are basically identical to those at 72. Here see for yourself: 72: Screen Shot 2015-02-23 at 8.06.14 AM.png 1) Actually, now that I see the 6Z NAVGEM track, it is actually not as far north as Columbus though it is still a fair bit further north than the ideal path for mainly snow at ATL-AHN and a clear northern outlier. 2) Is that some CAD showing up on this run? If so, could we be seeing more IP/ZR than earlier thought if there is CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That's a bummer it would be all rain. larry's right though. It's a clear outlier. Besides, when i think of reliability, the nogaps/navgem doesn't come to mind. i mean really even this idea of mentioning this model only become popular this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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