superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 06z NAM just joined the party! Nice hit for NC/Upstate SC/N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is north to me. Edit: out to 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is north to me. Yep. Much better look at h5. It even closed off for a couple frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yep. Much better look at h5. It even closed off for a couple frames. Awesome. I'm still waiting on the last 18 hours to spit out. I need to get on the free trials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Id suggest that the UKMET will end up being just a bit too far North.. along with the Euro. I expect the GFS to have a track around Savannah GA. So anywhere between CAE & CHS (for track) .. looks the best right now.. which ultimately messes it up for a big chunk of SC/GA. On top of not that great of a track, we have issues with temps. The NAM says Ukie is correct as does the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Oddly enough with the low a little more north and hugging the coast a little more, I ended up with less qpf. Very fast movement of the low between 66 and 69 and then it slows again. Shoots out like 300-400 miles. That's prob why there is less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Discussion not completed but it appears gsp not buying snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GSP rather blunt with this one lol ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS GENERALLY LATCH ONTO A SCENARIO WHEREAN OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW GETS KICKED OUT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINSAND ENCOUNTERS A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THE FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NW GULF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE UPPER WAVEAPPROACHES...A COUPLED JET BRINGS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THEWESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING ALSO MOVES IN...WHICH HELPS TO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGIONFROM THE SW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PRECIP CONTINUES OVERNIGHT ONWEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST TO THE SOUTH. THE LOWTRACK ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY THE SOMEWHAT FAVOREDECMWF...IS FARTHER N ON THE 00Z RUN. ALL THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NRNFRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS THEWESTERN CAROLINAS WHILE COLD AIR IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...WHICHPOINTS TOWARD A WINTRY PRECIP TYPE SCENARIO...MOST LIKELY ARAIN/SNOW SITUATION BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESSES. THERE IS MUCHUNCERTAINTY IN SPITE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TO BE INBETTER AGREEMENT. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA ISTIMING. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN MAINLYDURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD AIR ALSO ARRIVES TO KEEP MUCH OF ITIN THE FORM OF SNOW ALONG/N OF I-85. THE EXPERIENCED READERUNDERSTANDS THAT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER OFPRECIP TO SNOW BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AS THE PRECIP ISFALLING IS USUALLY A SUCKERS BET. FORTUNATELY...WE DO NOT HAVE TOENTERTAIN ISSUING ANY WEATHER WATCHES ON THIS CYCLE...SO OUREXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE MANAGED ACCORDINGLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Discussion not completed but it appears gsp not buying snow at this point. Are you sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 06z GFS is better. Not great by any means, but definitely a good step. Looks like the WPC is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like i'm gonna be on the border of somethin and nothin. Bout right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Woah, I'm crazy for even looking at it, but the 06z NAVGEM just went WOOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Do tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Woah, I'm crazy for even looking at it, but the 06z NAVGEM just went WOOF. Elaborate or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Woah, I'm crazy for even looking at it, but the 06z NAVGEM just went WOOF.post it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 and the SREF Plumes for my area increase double from the 21z to the 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The sref temps don't look great to me for Rdu. Looks like we are in low 30s for the duration and then it shoots up to almost 40 by Thursday afternoon which would melt pretty much anything that has fallen..... Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BOOM for N GA on the 0Z Euro. 4"+ for all from Tony's place northward to the N border! A solid 4-8" for ATL-AHN. OK, can we stop right here lol? Note that the path of the low is ~70 miles further south as it goes over Brunswick instead of SAV per the 12Z. That apparently was just enough colder to increase snowfall amounts substantially from the 1-3.5" of the 12Z to 4-6" on this 0Z. Also, perhaps it is responding better to slightly drier air at 850 and heavier precip. earlier. Yet, totol qpf is a hair lighter at ~0.80" vs. 0.90" on the 12Z. That would be 6" inmby. Have to remember ULL are oh so tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro is a definite big storm here, maybe the biggest since 3/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I've watched every news channel and read nws afd. Folks will have no idea this is coming. Only one with moisture is fox 8 with 30% chance. I get the egg in face conservative approach garbage, but really it's hillarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I've watched every news channel and read nws afd. Folks will have no idea this is coming. Only one with moisture is fox 8 with 30% chance. I get the egg in face conservative approach garbage, but really it's hillarious. I posted on my facebook for people to go ahead and hit the stores before it hits the local news and folks bum rush the stores for their milk sandwiches. Had a couple ask, "I don't see anything, where did you hear this?" ahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I've watched every news channel and read nws afd. Folks will have no idea this is coming. Only one with moisture is fox 8 with 30% chance. I get the egg in face conservative approach garbage, but really it's hillarious. You seem extremely confident. hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 From what I've seen, most stations are concerned with temperatures... have it starting as rain and changing to snow with temperatures quickly jumping up close to 40 by thursday afternooon... So they may be thinking little impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 From what I've seen, most stations are concerned with temperatures... have it starting as rain and changing to snow with temperatures quickly jumping up close to 40 by thursday afternooon... So they may be thinking little impact In the end, thats probably what is going to happen. Can't remember a storm since i've been on here that lived up to the hype that this place can generate. But its still fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Matthew east video, Check out @eastwx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/eastwx/status/569811013916356608?s=09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So, the Euro, UK, and NAM all look good and keep trending better for here. GFS still not on board all the way yet. But in reality we are 3 to 4 days out and still don't have a clue if precip or temps will work. It looks better but still not very confident. Local media still saying dry for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wow! Just saw the 6z navgem. It has a Beast, 1001mb low over Columbus georgia. Check please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The sref temps don't look great to me for Rdu. Looks like we are in low 30s for the duration and then it shoots up to almost 40 by Thursday afternoon which would melt pretty much anything that has fallen..... Correct?40 degrees will have little affect on 10 inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GEFS mean at 96hr is nice over the upstate sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 From what I've seen, most stations are concerned with temperatures... have it starting as rain and changing to snow with temperatures quickly jumping up close to 40 by thursday afternooon... So they may be thinking little impactYep, local fox met said maybe an inch tomorrow , rain on wed with high of 45 and 47 on Thursday Going to be a shock come Thur morning , I believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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