sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Well there has been many of times that I can remember iwhen points south of here including the Midlands has seen much more accumulations than we have up here. Its more rare but rather possible Yep, 1973 CAE received 16" while Rimini, SC broke the 24 hours snowfall record with 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 There are now several GEFS members moving sub-1000mb lows across the FL/GA and hammering N GA/upstate SC/most of NC..Glad to see the big dogs on there still. It's really trending nicely for NC it will be interesting to see if the Euro sticks to its guns or has an even better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 1973 & 2010? It's rare man. Very rare. The only modeling having cold enough temps here (for the majority of the precip) is the NAM. Maybe im thinking about points just south of me. Union, Laurens, Newberry Greenwood, Abbeville. Its always a bummer when that has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yep, 1973 CAE received 16" while Rimini, SC broke the 24 hours snowfall record with 24". 1973... I just turned 28 years old... I have never seen anything like it...I hear all the great stories etc.. but I can almost 100% guarantee it won't happen again... at least while I'm posting on these forums. Lets do a short time-line here for the KCAE region. Many days ago modeling (at least the GFS) had around 30 inches of snow/Wintry weather here with the huge weekend system. Over time, we have morphed into a mid-week system that has the NAM saying front-end snow here from a crappy shortwave... and then when the main show comes... it's too warm here for much else than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 1973... I just turned 28 years old... I have never seen anything like it...I hear all the great stories etc.. but I can almost 100% guarantee it won't happen again... at least while I'm posting on these forums. Lets do a short time-line here for the KCAE region. Many days ago modeling (at least the GFS) had around 30 inches of snow/Wintry weather here with the huge weekend system. Over time, we have morphed into a mid-week system that has the NAM saying front-end snow here from a crappy shortwave... and then when the main show comes... it's too warm here for much else than rain. I wasnt born until 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro is holding firm with a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Once again. Too warm into CAE/ATL/MCN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Man, the Euro might actually be a little bigger this run. A tick further north at hr 66 and it's blowing up again. Not quite as amped as the UKMET, but not too far off. EDIT: 1000 mb LP just offshore of CHS at hr 78. Textbook. I think that's how I would draw a winter storm on a crayon map. About the same as last run overall. It might be a tick further east in the Atlantic or maybe it's just a little faster. Snowfall totals are about the same. Looks like the precip makes it a little further N/W this run with 2"+ making it more into SE VA and all the way to the NC/VA border in WNC. Looks like a pasty snow for many with verbatim temps never making it below 32-33 in RDU and CLT. Verbatim temps are 29-32 at GSO 850s are easily cold enough with RDU/CLT at -3 to -5C 850s and GSO -5C to -6C. This is a big hit of all-snow (presumably) for GSP, etc. in N SC, N GA, and also N AL, as well. It's actually a little better run here, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Once again. Too warm into CAE/ATL/MCN. Are we talking borderline, or out of it completely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just to give you guys an idea.. my current house sees this per 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Are we talking borderline, or out of it completely? No man! We see snow if you count a slight Flizzard? I'm done with this crap. We aren't getting that huge Winter storm here obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BOOM for N GA on the 0Z Euro. 4"+ for all from Tony's place northward to the N border! A solid 4-8" for ATL-AHN. OK, can we stop right here lol? Note that the path of the low is ~70 miles further south as it goes over Brunswick instead of SAV per the 12Z. That apparently was just enough colder to increase snowfall amounts substantially from the 1-3.5" of the 12Z to 4-6" on this 0Z. Also, perhaps it is responding better to slightly drier air at 850 and heavier precip. earlier. Yet, totol qpf is a hair lighter at ~0.80" vs. 0.90" on the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BOOM for N GA on the 0Z Euro. 4"+ for all from Tony's place northward to the N border! A solid 4-7" for ATL-AHN. OK, can we stop right here lol? Note that the path of the low is ~70 miles further south as it goes over Brunswick instead of SAV per the 12Z. That apparently was just enough colder to increase snowfall amounts substantially from the 1-3.5" of the 12Z to 4-6" on this 0Z. Also, perhaps it is responding better to slightly driery air at 850 and heavier precip. earlier. Yet, totol qpf is a hair lighter at ~0.80" vs. 0.90" on the 12Z. Stormsfury called a Brunswick type track much earlier today. Interested in his thoughts with the 00z guidance.. Mike.. I know you're awake man.. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 A very similar Euro run, but a tick colder in this area both at 850 and at the sfc. 850 low track again was roughly from SE Alabama to Myrtle Beach or central SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not surprised at all where the EURO went on the 00z run, and also not surprised the moisture seemed to spread out a little. Temps are going to be so close but considering a slight verbatim warm bias, this might be what we want at this current stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not surprised at all where the EURO went on the 00z run, and also not surprised the moisture seemed to spread out a little. Temps are going to be so close but considering a slight verbatim warm bias, this might be what we want at this current stage. You made me feel better around CAE. TY so much. The modeling outside the NAM are all too warm basically here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Euro looks at the same position at hour 84 if not a tick SE. QPF looks overdone IMO, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The Euro definitely trended ever so slightly better for CAE, at least the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WPC model discussion... ...SOUTHWEST U.S. STORM......FRONTAL WAVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REACHES THE GULF COASTSTATES...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMETA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS OF MONDAY MORNING WILLBECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARP TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BYWEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERNGULF OF MEXICO AND CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC.THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE PREFERRED IN THE PREVIOUS MODELCYCLE...AND THERE IS NO COMPELLING REASON TO STRAY FROM THISTHINKING AS OF YET. THE GFS IS GETTING CLOSER...AS THE 18Z AND NEW00Z RUNS CAME NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOWPRESSURE ON DAY 3. STILL...THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS SHARP ALOFT. ITLOSES AMPLITUDE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET AND PLETHORA OFECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GFS PRECIPITATION OUTPUT IS ALSO MORESUPPRESSED...WITH THE NORTH EDGE OF HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANTAMOUNTS REACHING SOUTHERN NC RATHER THAN SE VA PER THEECMWF/UKMET. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THE GFS MAY BE USEFULTHROUGH DAY 2...AND COULD BE INCLUDED IN OUR FINAL PREFERENCEPENDING DAY 3 TRENDS IN THE NON-NCEP MODELS.THE NAM IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH TUESDAYEVENING...25/00Z. THEREAFTER IT IS ON THE FAST SIDE...BOTH ACROSSTHE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WITHIN THE UPSTREAM FLOW / NORTHWESTERLYFLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MORE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM ALONGTHE GULF COAST AS PREDICTED IN THE NAM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTOF A DEFINABLE MODEL TREND...AND THE FACT THAT THE NAM IS OUT OFPHASE UPSTREAM INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN OMITTING IT FROM OURPREFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice to see them going with the Euro and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF not as wet this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF not as wet this run Looking at the spreads for the MSLP, my guess is the 21z run had a few over-amped warm members that skewed the QPF upwards and that's mostly what is going on. Just a guess, though. I know a lot of areas like CLT had copious QPF that wasn't snow on the last run. The MSLP track is about the same as the last run, but you see less spread in general. Looks good for most of the board, I think. Anyways, looks like the 00z UKMET is starting to roll out on WB, so I'll post about that when it comes out, then probably hit the sack for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 00z UKMET is really about the same as the last run. Looks like 3-5" for much of NC/NW SC/N GA. It is a little warmer, however. RDU is really close to mixing, if it doesn't mix. CLT looks like all-snow, though not by a lot. Temps are 33-34 for RDU/CLT/GSP and 32 for GSO with 30-31 in NW NC. I honestly expected more precip out of that setup. Apparently, the UKMET had a 1000 mb LP at about the same spot as tonight's run, BTW, so it wasn't that different. Precip does get all the way back to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF mean for KSPA actually increased to 3.52". 7 members at 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF mean for KSPA actually increased to 3.52". 7 members at 6"+. To see that many members with that much snow this early and it continuing to go up is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Pretty good agreement among the members on the 00z EPS, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yet again, the 00z EPS trends much much further away from substantial snow into KCAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So how does the NAM look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So how does the NAM look? The NAM really has no support at all. So throw it away... especially the first "wave". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Id suggest that the UKMET will end up being just a bit too far North.. along with the Euro. I expect the GFS to have a track around Savannah GA. So anywhere between CAE & CHS (for track) .. looks the best right now.. which ultimately messes it up for a big chunk of SC/GA.On top of not that great of a track, we have issues with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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