griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The height field over the mid-Atlantic and up into the Northeast is farther north on the UKMet compared to the NAM even. Looks like the UKMet sfc low would track through S GA to Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 I have heard the UKMET does best with phased systems. Honestly, with a 999 mb LP over Pensacola, would we have to start sweating temperature issues? I don't think for us, for GA and SC possibly, but if it starts coming inland then perhaps for us as well.. doubt that's going to be the case here. I believe I'm seeing a classic trek near the gulf and SE atlantic coasts develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z GEFS following the trend of bringing the sfc low NW... Indeed. Looks like further support for bringing the low up the coast some. The good news for our friends down south is that it also still looks good for AL/SC/GA. I don't think for us but if it starts coming inland then perhaps. I believe I'm seeing a classic trek near the gulf and SE atlantic coasts develop. Yeah, I was just wondering. It's not too often we deal with sub-1000 mb surface lows in the gulf. With amped systems, you always have to start worrying about an inland track, it seems (which we might be able to afford to some degree with the way this one looks... at least over S GA). EDIT: Well, 12/19/09 might have been sub-1000 mb before it left the Gulf. And we all know how that one went on to destroy NW NC/VA/MD/etc. (beastly storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Is that some CAD showing up on the 0Z UKMET? I like the way both of these are shaping up. Kind of an unusual thing to say And maybe the one after will show up when Tues. is past. Still room for something to move up into that cad over the weekend, lol. if there is some weakness left by the low Thurs. Nice way to finish off Feb. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 check out the GEFS trend. model center subscribers: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfsens&run_time=00z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=NA&run_hour=78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm liking where we are with the Ukmet. It has seemed to be most consistent with its runs. Its very possible that the southern stream system will likely continue to be better defined as model tend to weaken these systems too quickly. Looking at the the Canadian its wide right for the Thursday system but brings back our winter storm for Sunday with snow then ice for the CAD regions for NC and Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z GEFS following the trend of bringing the sfc low NW... yep mean snowfall is improved over much of NC as well. Large area of 4" now from CLT to just east of RDU to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 00z NAVGEM is a big hit for almost all of NC along with NW SC and N GA. WOOF. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2015022200&area=fnmoc_conus&set=All EDIT: Er, maybe not woof, but a nice hit still. I was fudging my metric conversions, LOL. Better than past runs, in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 EDIT: Well, 12/19/09 might have been sub-1000 mb before it left the Gulf. And we all know how that one went on to destroy NW NC/VA/MD/etc. (beastly storm). Yeah, didn't win that one here. I'm trying to think of a sub-1000mb gulf low (other than March 03) that put down a ton of snow here. I'll have to look through the records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm not crazy about the 0Z UKMET for the ATL-AHN corridor. I think it is likely too wound up/too far north for that corridor's good. I'm hoping it trends back southward and not so wound up. We don't need that extra WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah, didn't win that one here. I'm trying to think of a sub-1000mb gulf low (other than March 03) that put down a ton of snow here. I'll have to look through the records. Yeah, that was one of our first recent experiences with our favorite NW trend. It produced here with 4-5" (though we mixed with more sleet than expected), but it really screwed over most of the state, and we were supposed to get more than that (I think Frosty probably got 10"+, though). I can't think of a sub-1000 mb Gulf Low that got us, either, which is one reason I was curious. (Well, Superstorm '93 dropped 5.7" here on the back end, so there's that). Which storm was March 03? Was it the March 30, 2003 storm that dropped some accumulating snowfall on the backside? I remember that one. If I remember right, it was really warm prior to that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artie Fufkin Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Whole lotta snowflakes starting to creep into my point forecast from FFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah, didn't win that one here. I'm trying to think of a sub-1000mb gulf low (other than March 03) that put down a ton of snow here. I'll have to look through the records. For ATL and maybe you, too: 2/12/10 (997) and 1/22/87 (998). Since the late 1800's, these are the only two sub-1000 mb Gulf lows that produced a major SN/IP at ATL other than 3/13/1993. However, they both tracked a good bit further south than the 0Z UKMET has for the upcoming one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 00z NAVGEM is a big hit for almost all of NC along with NW SC and N GA. WOOF. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?dtg=2015022200&area=fnmoc_conus&set=All EDIT: Er, maybe not woof, but a nice hit still. I was fudging my metric conversions, LOL. Better than past runs, in any case. It's pretty light with its qpf output IMO given the sfc low is inland over S GA. Then again not as strong as ukmet's low but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 UKMet 850 temps at hr72...wrapped up and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah, that was one of our first recent experiences with our favorite NW trend. It produced here with 4-5" (though we mixed with more sleet than expected), but it really screwed over most of the state, and we were supposed to get more than that (I think Frosty probably got 10"+, though). I can't think of a sub-1000 mb Gulf Low that got us, either, which is one reason I was curious. (Well, Superstorm '93 dropped 5.7" here on the back end, so there's that). Which storm was March 03? Was it the March 30, 2003 storm that dropped some accumulating snowfall on the backside? I remember that one. If I remember right, it was really warm prior to that one. sorry i'm typing in the dark.. i mean 93 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I have heard the UKMET does best with phased systems. Honestly, with a 999 mb LP over Pensacola, would we have to start sweating temperature issues? Sometimes when a system really gets amped up the mid-level warm nose get pulled further northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 UKMet 850 temps at hr72...wrapped up and warmer as Chris said earlier, there's only so much this storm can amp up due to the vortex position. But I'd say the ukmet would be our northern limit to keep our region all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree w/ wow, no need to worry about this getting amped up to the extent the SLP bombs out or head inland. The trough axis really can't get that negative with the PJ screaming across the great lakes/new england. Hopefully it stays closed off to the ga/sc area, at that point it will open up and head out to sea. The 4km NAM loop looks pretty tasty around 60 hours at 500MB. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 For ATL and maybe you, too: 2/12/10 (997) and 1/22/87 (998). Since the late 1800's, these are the only two sub-1000 mb Gulf lows that produced a major SN/IP at ATL other than 3/13/1993. However, they both tracked a good bit further south than the 0Z UKMET has for the upcoming one. The 2/10 storm was far south and got on the northern end of it. 4" from that one. Looking at the surface maps, it seemed there was relatively lower pressure everywhere. The 1/87 is well known. That one came from way deep out of the GOM and put down a foot as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For ATL and maybe you, too: 2/12/10 (997) and 1/22/87 (998). Since the late 1800's, these are the only two sub-1000 mb Gulf lows that produced a major SN/IP at ATL other than 3/13/1993. However, they both tracked a good bit further south than the 0Z UKMET has for the upcoming one. The 2/10 storm was far south and got on the northern end of it. 4" from that one. Looking at the surface maps, it seemed there was relatively lower pressure everywhere, so this really The 1/87 is well known. That one came from way deep out of the GOM and put down a foot as I recall. I did not remember the 2010 V-Day Storm being that strong. I guess that's how I still managed a couple inches despite the LP tracking so far south. The 1/87 storm must have ran either inland or really close to the coast after bombing out. I remember this one from the sharp cutoff (but didn't experience it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 btw, the 0z GEFS individual panels are just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 I did not remember the 2010 V-Day Storm being that strong. I guess that's how I still managed a couple inches despite the LP tracking so far south. pressures were relatively low across the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 There are now several GEFS members moving sub-1000mb lows across the FL/GA and hammering N GA/upstate SC/most of NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 87 and 88 were two epic years for Spartanburg. I was only 4 in 1987 and don't remember that storm, but do remember the 1988 storm. Been chasing that magical foot ever since. Looks like upstate's 850 is barely below 0 on the ukie. Cutting it close with that amped up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree w/ wow, no need to worry about this getting amped up to the extent the SLP bombs out or head inland. The trough axis really can't get that negative with the PJ screaming across the great lakes/new england. Hopefully it stays closed off to the ga/sc area, at that point it will open up and head out to sea. The 4km NAM loop looks pretty tasty around 60 hours at 500MB. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php I wish you were in the KCAE area.. you'd be sweating bullets right now. Even then, it'd still be too warm. This sucks for KCAE. For averyone around here guess what?!? We have the NAM on our side... nothing else so far. Pretty dumb how its almost 100% NC or AL on these main forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I wish you were in the KCAE area.. you'd be sweating bullets right now. Even then, it'd still be too warm. This sucks for KCAE. For averyone around here guess what?!? We have the NAM on our side... nothing else so far. Pretty dumb how its almost 100% NC or AL on these main forums. Oh Yeah, The Joys of living in Spartanburg vs Columbia/Florence area. I dont have to stress nearly as much as you... lol its not healthy buddy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Oh Yeah, The Joys of living in Spartanburg vs Columbia/Florence area. I dont have to stress nearly as much as you... lol its not healthy buddy!! I'll be on my way to Montana if this fails here ( at least I hope I will be.) You're in a good spot that way man.. imo. I'm guessing a line just North of ATL through the upstate and all of NC win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'll be on my way to Montana if this fails here ( at least I hope I will be.) You're in a good spot that way man.. imo. I'm guessing a line just North of ATL through the upstate and all of NC win. Well there has been many of times that I can remember iwhen points south of here including the Midlands has seen much more accumulations than we have up here. Its more rare but rather possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Well there has been many of times that I can remember iwhen points south of here including the Midlands has seen much more accumulations than we have up here. Its more rare but rather possible 1973 & 2010? It's rare man. Very rare. The only modeling having cold enough temps here (for the majority of the precip) is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.