deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think the only shot NC has is for this to be on the coast and climb it a bit. I don't think this just goes out to see, but its going to be a fine line to see how much moisture gets back into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think the only shot NC has is for this to be on the coast and climb it a bit. I don't think this just goes out to see, but its going to be a fine line to see how much moisture gets back into NC. the trends since 00z last night tell us nc wont have to worry about precip issues. once the models hone in on a track for 2-3 suites we can be confident of a track. via wow in the other thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If you want to see a NW trend check out this loop at 81hrs (need model center access)....went from 1008mb way out to sea to 1002mb off the coast, all in 4 runs. here:http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfs&run_time=00z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=NA&run_hour=81&loop=trend That's pretty cool Jon. On this one, you can see the northern stream PV has trended farther north in each of the last 4 runs...we've seen that a lot this winter http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfs&run_time=00z¶m=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=69&loop=trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree, the GFS has come back further NW, but its only about to where the other models are...I just can't see this getting to like South VA or even WNC with the heaviest precip. No doubt the GFS has come back a bit with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 thanks, i posted that loop in the wrong thread. too many storms to keep count! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree, the GFS has come back further NW, but its only about to where the other models are...I just can't see this getting to like South VA or even WNC with the heaviest precip. No doubt the GFS has come back a bit with the precip.So based on GFS and what you are saying is: it will stay south and have a hard time getting far into NC, but if it does get to Ga or Sc, temps are marginal ? If so, we really can't win!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree, the GFS has come back further NW, but its only about to where the other models are...I just can't see this getting to like South VA or even WNC with the heaviest precip. No doubt the GFS has come back a bit with the precip. One other thing i forgot To mention. Areas down here this time MIGHT get a little frozen TUES morning and temps are locking colder with precipitation this time around, not like the last 2 systems that plowed through with no mechanism to keep cold in place. We have this this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I see what's going on in this thread. I want it to trend north so I get snow and I want it to stay south so I get snow. NAM looks like a mix if not rain anyways. We upstaters won't to be just north of the upper level low...who ever is will get dumped on quick. Best case scenario right now is it not start trending north. Maybe a slight jog tuesday night through Wednesday would be ideal. Like Storm says the power of the cold is greater this time IF modeled correctly therefore it shouldnt come too far north...it's a fine line but somebody should get plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like the gfs is droping an inch or two in the raleigh/eastern nc area. Temps are easily cold enough, upper to mid 20's. I think the gfs sfc doesn't match up well to it aloft(the general 500mb down to sfc shift s/e seems a little off). The slp seems to be embedded w/in that high concentrated area of QPf over the florida penn'. I think that's some convective feedback. I wouldn't be surprised to see the qpf grids show something better on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like the gfs is droping an inch or two in the raleigh/eastern nc area. Temps are easily cold enough, upper to mid 20's. I think the gfs sfc doesn't match up well to it aloft(the general 500mb down to sfc shift s/e seems a little off). The slp seems to be embedded w/in that high concentrated area of QPf over the florida penn'. I think that's some convective feedback. I wouldn't be surprised to see the qpf grids show something better on the ensembles. They have so far imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 One other thing i forgot To mention. Areas down here this time MIGHT get a little frozen TUES morning and temps are locking colder with precipitation this time around, not like the last 2 systems that plowed through with no mechanism to keep cold in place. We have this this time around. That is very true as well. there is some cold air to work with, but we need that vort to survive. this is one of the rare cases this winter, POTENTIALLY where it goes too far north its SHREDDED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Everybody kept saying the last big storm was going to trend north like the "king" said, but it tracked south of CAE just like the GFS had shown 3 days prior, and re-developed off the coast of North Carolina. I think everybody in Northeastern Georgia, upstate South Carolina, and the northern Midlands of South Carolina can attest to this. We just don't know anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I would say our LAST trend should show itself by the 00z runs tomorrow night. That IMHO will be the final key to this puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 They have so far imo I'm waiting to do the trend loop on the 00z ens vs the rest...so far there's been a noticeable trend in both the OP and ensemble mean hugging the coast with more moisture involved as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 One thing to note about the 0Z GFS 850 dewpoints as of 18Z on Wed. near the northern end of the sig precip. in GA (ATL-AHN corridor): they have dropped and now the wetbulbs have dropped from near 0C to -1 C. So, if there's heavy enough precip. that were to come in shortly thereafter, it could conceivably evaporatively cool to -1 at 850, which would be cold enough for primarily snow per that model. Maybe that's why the NAM is colder? Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Everybody kept saying the last big storm was going to trend north like the "king" said, but it tracked south of CAE just like the GFS had shown 3 days prior, and re-developed off the coast of North Carolina. I think everybody in Northeastern Georgia, upstate South Carolina, and the northern Midlands of South Carolina can attest to this. We just don't know anything at this point. Not sure what you're talking about but the last storm trended wayyy north. The Mtns of NC were on the very northern fringe 3 days prior and wound up having mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 0z canadian is a little south and east of its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The UKMET looks like it may be pulling in the cold air at 72 as it is kinking the height and thickness lines over MS, possible that at 84 it is snowing into AL and GA but as usual never easy to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 0z canadian is a little south and east of its 12z run. Yeah, not a good look there. Looks about the same as the GFS tonight. On the other hand, it looks like the UKMET went bonkers. 999 mb over Pensacola??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 The UKMET looks like it may be pulling in the cold air at 72 as it is kinking the height and thickness lines over MS, possible that at 84 it is snowing into AL and GA but as usual never easy to tell 999mb low over the gulf coast.. i imagine it would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The UKMET looks like it may be pulling in the cold air at 72 as it is kinking the height and thickness lines over MS, possible that at 84 it is snowing into AL and GA but as usual never easy to tell Is that some CAD showing up on the 0Z UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I would imagine that would be a nice Rain to Snow The UKMET looks like it may be pulling in the cold air at 72 as it is kinking the height and thickness lines over MS, possible that at 84 it is snowing into AL and GA but as usual never easy to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah, not a good look there. Looks about the same as the GFS tonight. On the other hand, it looks like the UKMET went bonkers. 999 mb over Pensacola??? it fizzled out the energy pretty quickly... and didn't know what to do thereafter. ukmet is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It looks like it, yes...Larry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Is that some CAD showing up on the 0Z UKMET?The UKMET has been leading the way with storms lately, correct!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ukmet and euro insist on winding this pup up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I have heard the UKMET does best with phased systems. Honestly, with a 999 mb LP over Pensacola, would we have to start sweating temperature issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 0z GEFS following the trend of bringing the sfc low NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The UKMET looks like it may be pulling in the cold air at 72 as it is kinking the height and thickness lines over MS, possible that at 84 it is snowing into AL and GA but as usual never easy to tell Thanks snowgoose for UK maps. That looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The UKMET has been leading the way with storms lately, correct!? Yes, sir! The UKMET wants to be proclaimed the new King! Of course, the Doc won't give up easily after 20+ years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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