Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Im not saying this can't come NW, It will probably do that, but I don't know how much this time. There is too much upstream for that to happen.. the KEY in ALL of this to get snow, is HEAVY precip rates...if you DONT....Not snowing. Just how I see it right now. I guess my thing is that every single storm this year has trended way NW. Why would that stop now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It is trending stronger earlier and more north, given the trends today in the GFS with the s/w I'd argue that the "northern trend" would continue and to not put too much hope in Nam, and even that is trending north with the low. I don't know how weak and suppressed this low stays, it's a matter of when the s/w goes neutral. I don't think I-20 would be out of it even if it did trend more north to get the I-40 folks in on it...to me it seems like this might please a good amount of the SE. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 00z Euro come a tad closer to the coast with the 997mb low, can't really seeing it going more suppressed tonight. We haven't seen really amped up members on the OP's but they are there on the ensemble members unfortunately, a blend seems likely. The precip shield will be further north for sure. I don't know how much more tho. I think y'all get some precip, I am just saying I think the EURO is too strong and likely to far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I guess my thing is that every single storm this year has trended way NW. Why would that stop now? I am not saying it won't, but I don't see this as far north as EURO...Im talking the track of the SFC low....IMO it was probably too strong on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wow that's wet. 3"+ for the fish. That's gorgeous. Take that and shift it about 150 miles North (climo around here suggests about a 95% chance of that happen) and we're in business.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Hard to bet against the trend all winter of systems going more northwest as we get closer to the event. Heck, the storm last week trended too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BUFKIT isn't exactly enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BUFKIT isn't exactly enthused Yeah NAM bufkit says GSP gets more snow from the tuesday system than the late week one. It pretty much stays rain/snow mix the whole time. Granted you can't take the NAM's temps literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Please let Chris and I hope that I-20 gets a big snow storm. Wishing the actual low track up North too much actually screws us over.. in our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yeah NAM bufkit says GSP gets more snow from the tuesday system than the late week one. It pretty much stays rain/snow mix the whole time. Granted you can't take the NAM's temps literally. The 18z GFS was warm too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 BUFKIT isn't exactly enthused This will be a tough one to crack. The trend is there, just need to keep seeing the s/w hold through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Robert latest thinking.. WxSouth 7 mins · Upper lows this time of year are a feature to reckon with in the Deep Sout, some years. It turns out we'll have the cold air to work with on Wednesday evening and Thursday for much of Arkansas, northern halves of Miss, Alabama, Georgia and most of the Carolinas, southeast Virginia. Now we have the new NAM with its strong upper low taking a slightly more north track. Surprise---this was expected. I'll keep on watching this system for the Deep South as this is the kind of system to throw down snow fast and furiously on its northern side and even end as snow pretty far south.Right now , it's impossible to be drawing where the snow is exactly or how much. This can easily trend north or south. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 18z GFS was warm too.... Yeah, but it also didn't really spread precip into my area. If we got under heavy precip I'm sure the temp would have been lower than what was shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I see what's going on in this thread. I want it to trend north so I get snow and I want it to stay south so I get snow. NAM looks like a mix if not rain anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The reason why some of us aren't seeing a ssignificant NW trend is because of the building high that is keeping cold air established versus the dreAded themed departing high pressure out to seA. Also will add the moisture field Should be fairly expansive with what looks like a good feed of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I see what's going on in this thread. I want it to trend north so I get snow and I want it to stay south so I get snow. The precip shield is going to be North enough for you too. If the actual track keeps amping up/going more North, it screws us all to your South. Every man for himself I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The precip shield is going to be North enough for you too. If the actual track keeps amping up/going more North, it screws us all to your South. Oh I am perfectly fine with the NAM's current track. Still gives me a good bit of qpf. Just need it cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The reason why some of us aren't seeing a ssignificant NW trend is because of the building high that is keeping cold air established versus the dreAded themed departing high pressure out to seA. In my dead honest opinion, I can see the actual low tracking further to the South when all is said and done. Barring a major change up North/northern stream. I personally think you might be on to something speaking of the low being further South also. Maybe my thoughts are half-way wishcasting.. but as you said.. if that snow does roll through here with the first wave, it gives an even higher chance for I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The reason why some of us aren't seeing a ssignificant NW trend is because of the building high that is keeping cold air established versus the dreAded themed departing high pressure out to seA. Also will add the moisture field Should be fairly expansive with what looks like a good feed of moisture. I agree FULLY Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Nice that it will quite cold after the storm. Really concerned with surface temps and afternoon arrival of the snow (if it is snow) here in Ga. Going to waste a lot of potential accumulation to the late February sun angle with 34 degree or so temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We're all just guessing at this point. The southern wave is trending a little stronger. We've certainly seen the northern stream not press as far south as modeled with storm setups this year. There's no upstream block. My view is that this will climb more north. Regardless, outside of the far NW of our forum, temperatures should be concerning no matter your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 00z GFS looks more neutrally tilted at hr 66 compared to the 18z run. Heights are a little higher further east. The western ridge is a bit further west (and subsequently the eastern trough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 00z GFS looks more neutrally tilted at hr 66 compared to the 18z run. agree, should be a good run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS does look colder this run, also looks like the energy is more "tilted/trying to tilt" more NEU vs very fast and stringy POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The gfs looks good. It's going to be close. Neutral at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 When replying to posts containing images, please remember to delete the image. Otherwise it clutters up the thread with way more space than would actually be necessary for many of these one-lined comments like, "Wow! That looks awesome for MBY!" or "Just need that to shift a little ___ and we'd all be golden!" It's just good form to delete the image. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 further north w/ precip at 75 compared to 18z. still a step in the right direction, not sure if itll go boom this one or not though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 further north w/ precip at 75 compared to 18z. still a step in the right direction, not sure if itll go boom this one or not though. As are the temps. EDIT: I lied. just marginally colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Overall good track for many. I would expect the precip field to be more expansive than what is being shown on the 0z gfs. We need it to trend colder imo. Temps are going to be an issue, especially for Ga. and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If you want to see a NW trend check out this loop at 81hrs (need model center access)....went from 1008mb way out to sea to 1002mb off the coast, all in 4 runs. here:http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfs&run_time=00z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=NA&run_hour=81&loop=trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 yup...better run for the COLD for sure...VERBATIM its too warm, BUT it did trend colder. The storm DID NOT go much further north. To be honest, HSV to CHA to GSP and CLT to RDU don't see much QPF at all through hr 84. There is some snow in the GSP to CLT to RDU at the end, but doesn't look like a whole lot. Def. Drier than the EURO. Wetter than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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