Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Don't like the NW shift to the higher probs of bigger totals. Need that to stop for my area! Probably have about 36 hours or so of NW trends to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Don't like the NW shift to the higher probs of bigger totals. Need that to stop for my area! Yeah, really wish the 'jackpot' was CAE 4 days out, as us upstate folks will need to sweat put the inevitable NW trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Still days out to go either way. No concerns at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Don't like the NW shift to the higher probs of bigger totals. Need that to stop for my area! That's the problem with it Mack. With each update the higher probablity moves farther North. That's good for mountains and Virginias but not good for basically everyone else. But it's to be expected as it's the normal MO, plus it has seemed especially prevalent this year. Much more and our probablilties start going down dramatically, and it's still several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Up for GSP also, almost 3/4 of an inch from last run! Edit: actually up 1.16 from last run! Amazing! Do you have map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Do you have map?No, just the numbers:15z 2.64 mean 21z 3.80 mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 0z NAM already looking much better thru 36 hrs, stronger,more separated ull Ya, the GL lobe looks deeper and stronger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF mean QPF is 0.98" in Lillington, NC and 0.70" in RDU...what a difference a County makes. 0.41" and 0.68" on the last run, respectively. No doubt getting wetter for Central NC. Could be the track, although could just be added time = added moisture from storm, most likely a combination. Last run the QPF did not plateau yet. SREF Plume mean for Lillington (well, Erwin, about 10 miles east) is a tad over 2 inches. But Lord some of the individuals are juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks VERY close to the 18z nam so far...snow streaking in *or appears to be snow* over central MS and AL and moving into Mid GA and GA by 21Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks too positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks WARM at 2m, but **below 0c at 850 and heavier QPF** is moving through mid and northern AL and GA through 03z Thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks VERY close to the 18z nam so far...snow streaking in *or appears to be snow* over central MS and AL and moving into Mid GA and GA by 21Z precip will be more north.. check out the 500mb maps... more neutral tilt. It's following the trend. It's end-of-run NAM... trends are all we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks too positively tilted. Looks more negatively tilted than the 12z run. I think? Dare I say negatively tilted at hr 72? EDIT: Still not there for most of us NC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 ATL getting hammered at hour 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Its a small slight improvement but not as good as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I can't recall a h5 low like this with another low phasing to the PV right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 precip will be more north.. check out the 500mb maps... more neutral tilt yeah precip is further north and the low is stronger (1006 vs 1007) at 00z thurs Very wet at 78 off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks more negatively tilted than the 12z run. I think? Dare I say negatively tilted at hr 72?it is at 72 but to get what we want we need it to go negative at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Slow and steady steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wow that's wet. 3"+ for the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 precip will be more north.. check out the 500mb maps... more neutral tilt. It's following the trend. It's end-of-run NAM... trends are all we need. Oh, I think it will as well, but I don't think as a whole this climbs north that much. I think the doc was too strong at 12z. We shall see, but I think the SFC low is gonna be fairly south this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Haven't caught up with discussion, but posting this real fast.. if you want a good Winter storm into the Midlands of SC and areas possibly even further South, you want the 00z NAM to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 As of now** I think if your along I-40 you better hope this trends further north. It most certainly can, and might do that...but this setup is a bit better for the folks further south. We shall see, and I will eat my words, but I like the setup for the I-20 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Haven't caught up with discussion, but posting this real fast.. if you want a good Winter storm into the Midlands of SC and areas possibly even further South, you want the 00z NAM to verify. YUP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 YUP! If it verifies and the GFS comes in the same Wilmington, NC would get a good storm for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks more negatively tilted than the 12z run. I think? Dare I say negatively tilted at hr 72? EDIT: Still not there for most of us NC folks. Be honest I love that look right now. Gives a little breathing room. The foreign Guidance(Ukie & Euro) are leading way on this imo. Be nice to see the GFS at least identify the right features and get them placed in the right ballpark here in a few minutes. The 3 plus inch fish qpf, shows what can happen. Need the phase about 5 hours earleir and bingo as Franklin said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 As of now** I think if your along I-40 you better hope this trends further north. It most certainly can, and might do that...but this setup is a bit better for the folks further south. We shall see, and I will eat my words, but I like the setup for the I-20 corridor. That NW trend usually defies the odds. Trust me, I've been on the bad side of it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Oh, I think it will as well, but I don't think as a whole this climbs north that much. I think the doc was too strong at 12z. We shall see, but I think the SFC low is gonna be fairly south this storm...How are temps for Thursday ? 850s and 2m? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Oh, I think it will as well, but I don't think as a whole this climbs north that much. I think the doc was too strong at 12z. We shall see, but I think the SFC low is gonna be fairly south this storm... It is trending stronger earlier and more north, given the trends today in the GFS with the s/w I'd argue that the "northern trend" would continue and to not put too much hope in Nam, and even that is trending north with the low. I don't know how weak and suppressed this low stays, it's a matter of when the s/w goes neutral. I don't think I-20 would be out of it even if it did trend more north to get the I-40 folks in on it...to me it seems like this might please a good amount of the SE. I wouldn't be surprised to see the 00z Euro come a tad closer to the coast with the 997mb low, can't really seeing it going more suppressed tonight. We haven't seen really amped up members on the OP's but they are there on the ensemble members unfortunately, a blend seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Im not saying this can't come NW, It will probably do that, but I don't know how much this time. There is too much upstream for that to happen.. the KEY in ALL of this to get snow, is HEAVY precip rates...if you DONT....Not snowing. Just how I see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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