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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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18z GFS is gonna be close out to 99

 

Day 4 on the 18Z, that's a great look with a lobe of the PV over SE Canada acting as a suppressed 50/50, temps are going to be marginal in late Feb but the GOM is tapped, N of the 850 track will be isothermal with Concrete, you can write that on the driveway.

 

post-382-0-74179800-1424557313_thumb.jpg

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 The 2/28 system has been and continues to be the more clearcut/widespread threat of the two threats for more of the SE. There's much colder air that is nearby and there's CAD. The midweek low isn't working with nearly the same level of cold air. Maybe some spots luck out with something, however. For me, the interest level is much higher for ~2/28.

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Day 4 on the 18Z, that's a great look with a lobe of the PV over SE Canada acting as a suppressed 50/50, temps are going to be marginal in late Feb but the GOM is tapped, N of the 850 track will be isothermal with Concrete, you write that on the driveway.

 

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Look at the 18z go...verbatim it's a big ZR fest for RDU and then a sleet bomb CLT west with 2 inches  of snow for most before that. 

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The 2/28 system has been and continues to be the more clearcut/widespread threat of the two threats for more of the SE. There's much colder air that is nearby and there's CAD. The midweek low isn't working with nearly the same level of cold air. Maybe some spots luck out with something, however. For me, the interest level is much higher for ~2/28.

I personally like the mid week system better than the weekend event.
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Funny part is that we have back to back gulf low threats. That happens like, never

Let's see how bad our luck is. I know which way I am leaning. The mid week system is by far our best chance but the 18z GFS is holding that ridging in the west a little closer and has blocking over the top for the Fri/Sat threat.

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Look at the 18z go...verbatim it's a big ZR fest for RDU and then a sleet bomb CLT west with 2 inches  of snow for most before that. 

 

Indicative of a transfer, this is going to be RN and SN, my last name with an A after it, there will be narrow transition zones.  As many here in the east are doing, all eyes are on Dallas, if they over-perform, we will...

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How do you think the Monday threat will trend? It has trended north but the cold doesn't make it fast enough

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 Cold air seems to be the main issue at this point as moisture has trended northward. If anywhere is going to get it done, I'd say it would be Raleigh and points West IF** cold air damning sets up a bit earlier/stronger than anticipated. Trends have worked in our favor but still a long ways to go.

 

The set up for the weekend in particular does look a lot better but its also 6 days out so a lot can change there.

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The ensembles have consistently looked better than the op for the GFS with this.

We've seen the ensembles show great patterns and storm threats a lot this winter when the ops were not. Unfortunately, they haven't performeduch better. I don't know why...maybe it's just the lower resolution. But neither the GEFS nor the EPS have givene a lot of confidence this year.

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