CaryWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 All this chatter reads like Scottie trying to beam someone aboard the USS Enterprise and running into all kinds of transporter trouble. It's there. It's not. Wait...let's try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z GFS has winter precipitation for a small part of central nc at hour 42 Sent from my iPhone also has trended colder and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z GFS is gonna be close out to 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z GFS is gonna be close out to 99 looks like 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 precip shield a tad further north thru 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Right where we want the gfs for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z GFS a swing and a miss. Need to get that energy to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z GFS a swing and a miss. Need to get that energy to go negative. Our beloved dgex has now gone more suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Our beloved dgex has now gone more suppressedSweet ! That's better for me! I'm all in for Thursday now. I don't believe in karma and omens and stuff, but I heard the Miami Vice theme song on the radio just now, it's been like 30 years since that was relevant , shout out to Max100! Bring the mojo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Our beloved dgex has now gone more suppressed Great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z is gonna be a big hit for next weekend...of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z GFS is gonna be close out to 99 Day 4 on the 18Z, that's a great look with a lobe of the PV over SE Canada acting as a suppressed 50/50, temps are going to be marginal in late Feb but the GOM is tapped, N of the 850 track will be isothermal with Concrete, you can write that on the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z is gonna be a big hit for next weekend...of course.Is it cold enough for most ? Like 6z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 2/28 system has been and continues to be the more clearcut/widespread threat of the two threats for more of the SE. There's much colder air that is nearby and there's CAD. The midweek low isn't working with nearly the same level of cold air. Maybe some spots luck out with something, however. For me, the interest level is much higher for ~2/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Day 4 on the 18Z, that's a great look with a lobe of the PV over SE Canada acting as a suppressed 50/50, temps are going to be marginal in late Feb but the GOM is tapped, N of the 850 track will be isothermal with Concrete, you write that on the driveway. get_orig_img.php Look at the 18z go...verbatim it's a big ZR fest for RDU and then a sleet bomb CLT west with 2 inches of snow for most before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How do you think the Monday threat will trend? It has trended north but the cold doesn't make it fast enough Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z NAVGEM takes the UKie track, looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z NAVGEM takes the UKie track, looks nice.great news! That's a deadly combo this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 2/28 system has been and continues to be the more clearcut/widespread threat of the two threats for more of the SE. There's much colder air that is nearby and there's CAD. The midweek low isn't working with nearly the same level of cold air. Maybe some spots luck out with something, however. For me, the interest level is much higher for ~2/28.I personally like the mid week system better than the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That is the super wedge of all wedge's for next weekend on the GFS.. not sure I've ever seen that perfect of a wedge actually verify. It's normally something you see on a 300hr panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How do you think the Monday threat will trend? It has trended north but the cold doesn't make it fast enough Sent from my iPhone There really isn't much moisture for most , and it's cold chasing moisture. In order of the three storms next week , Monday is least impactful, and of least concern, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I personally like the mid week system better than the weekend event. Funny part is that we have back to back gulf low threats. That happens like, never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Funny part is that we have back to back gulf low threats. That happens like, never Let's see how bad our luck is. I know which way I am leaning. The mid week system is by far our best chance but the 18z GFS is holding that ridging in the west a little closer and has blocking over the top for the Fri/Sat threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Look at the 18z go...verbatim it's a big ZR fest for RDU and then a sleet bomb CLT west with 2 inches of snow for most before that. Indicative of a transfer, this is going to be RN and SN, my last name with an A after it, there will be narrow transition zones. As many here in the east are doing, all eyes are on Dallas, if they over-perform, we will... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Indicative of a transfer, this is going to be RN and SN, my last name with an A after it, there will be narrow transition zones. As many here in the east are doing, all eyes are on Dallas, if they over-perform, we will... burger must have been referring to the end of week system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS has been pretty consistent with next weekend's storm. It continues to show darker shades of pink I have yet to see before. The 18z is showing a little more front end snow than the 12z, only difference I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How do you think the Monday threat will trend? It has trended north but the cold doesn't make it fast enough Sent from my iPhone Cold air seems to be the main issue at this point as moisture has trended northward. If anywhere is going to get it done, I'd say it would be Raleigh and points West IF** cold air damning sets up a bit earlier/stronger than anticipated. Trends have worked in our favor but still a long ways to go. The set up for the weekend in particular does look a lot better but its also 6 days out so a lot can change there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z gefs still looks great for the weds storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 18z gefs still looks great for the weds storm. The ensembles have consistently looked better than the op for the GFS with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The ensembles have consistently looked better than the op for the GFS with this. We've seen the ensembles show great patterns and storm threats a lot this winter when the ops were not. Unfortunately, they haven't performeduch better. I don't know why...maybe it's just the lower resolution. But neither the GEFS nor the EPS have givene a lot of confidence this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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