AtlantaThrasher Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Most excellent. Speaking of probabilities, here is the probability of >4" of snowfall from the 15z SREF thru 6z (1 am) 2/26 I like my odds here in NWGA based off of that look. It's going to be a loooong few days waiting on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Even though he is a weekend met, he is the best local met around, IMO , and a snow weenie! I bet his Facebook page has more excitement and he probly hasn't seen the 18z, bet he will be more excited at 11 news He is the best we have in the GSP market. Andy Wood was very good, but he be gone. I would guess he is a lurker on AmericanWX...you can tell he is a model watcher. Dale on the other hand is a clone of the MWS at GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think this is the best chance we have had all season based on the trends of the models which is colder and colder and stronger at the same time. I think the 0z models will make people drool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think this is the best chance we have had all season based on the trends of the models which is colder and colder and stronger at the same time. I think the 0z models will make people drool. It's funny how the storms come back to back like this when we've been snowless all winter long. Great end to the season if we get 2 out of the next 10 days. I agree with you on the 00z, could be a huge run given the trend in the s/w that was seen in Wow's animation earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF is stronger/wetter than the last run. The trend continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 500mb trough is much more intact as it moves east. Here is the new run compared to the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm hesitant to use the SREFs at this long of a range, but this is nice... 21z SREF 24-hr QPF (I think there might be some additional precip past hr 87, too): I think we can consider the SREFs to be onboard at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF plumes are up to 3.76 inches of snow for Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm hesitant to use the SREFs at this long of a range, but this is nice... 21z SREF 24-hr QPF: What would that do in Wilmington, NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's funny how the storms come back to back like this when we've been snowless all winter long. Great end to the season if we get 2 out of the next 10 days. I agree with you on the 00z, could be a huge run given the trend in the s/w that was seen in Wow's animation earlier today. Yeah it is strange but this winter has been very strange. A lot of cold and days where the birds are out and bugs are out but it is NC weather lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF not impressive for snow around here of course. This whole "North" trend junk is going to screw us around I-20 in GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Better ridging out ahead of it and less confluence over the ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's definitely better, up to 5 inches on the mean now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF snowfall mean for KATL is 2.28 inches, up from 1.83 inches on the 15z run.Other GA Locations (Snowfall Mean):KRMG (Rome) - 2.99 inchesKGVL (Gainesville) - 2.68 inchesKAHN (Athens) - 2.25 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 KSPA is up to a mean of almost 4" now! Also 7 members are showing 6"+!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Mean didn't really increase but a tenth at CLT to 3.09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What would that do in Wilmington, NC? Probably rain down in SE NC, honestly. There's always winners and losers, unfortunately... --- One thing to note is that the SREF mean LP track basically is in agreement with the EPS track at the moment. Mean didn't really increase but a tenth at CLT to 3.09 There must be some amped members that are mixing you guys, then, because the mean is higher up this way without as much QPF. I doubt we see mixing in CLT and RDU at this point, but seasonal trends say the jackpot is heading to Roanoke (), so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 James, my guess is it's an issue with the boundary layer but that's just a WAG without looking at th model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 wow, does the 500mb avg map look better on the 21z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What would that do in Wilmington, NC? Cold Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF mean QPF is 0.98" in Lillington, NC and 0.70" in RDU...what a difference a County makes. 0.41" and 0.68" on the last run, respectively. No doubt getting wetter for Central NC. Could be the track, although could just be added time = added moisture from storm, most likely a combination. Last run the QPF did not plateau yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Cold Rain I know the weather channel is saying snow here a few nights but nothing major. I was in Fayetteville, NC last year when that storm hit and it was so nice lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF Plumes went up for MWK from 1.64 latest run 3.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Mean didn't really increase but a tenth at CLT to 3.09 Yeah we lost some of the extreme members from 15Z but more members are showing a decent event so I think its a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF Plumes went up for MWK from 1.64 latest run 3.40Up for GSP also, almost 3/4 of an inch from last run! Edit: actually up 1.16 from last run! Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF is stronger/wetter than the last run. The trend continues... The trends are looking better and it's hard not to be intrigued. I would have liked for the trend to wait until Tues afternoon or so though as it seems bound to continue, and we tend to run out of space very quickly around here when it gets going. Still so far away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF snow PROBABILITIES - a big jump up >4" over 24 hrs >8" over 24 hrs Again, these are probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Interesting trends for north central NC and south central VA. Looks consistent with the probability maps Wow posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF snow PROBABILITIES - a big jump up >4" over 24 hrs >8" over 24 hrs Again, these are probabilities. Don't like the NW shift to the higher probs of bigger totals. Need that to stop for my area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 0z NAM already looking much better thru 36 hrs, stronger,more separated ull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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