odell.moton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Welcome to the board - it's impossible to say with the models right now but there is a good chance of seeing something wintry for the area this week (either of the Greenvilles!). To get caught up, I suggest you take a bit of a 'watch and learn' approach as things move along, it can be fast-paced in here at times. That's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's not very nice to someone brand new here..there are multiple threats this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Its crazy I just joined this forum and I was catching up seeing all this anticipation of a big storm and get to the end and see"nothing to see here" welcome to the world of weather huh Folks tend to jump the gun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It looks to me like the 18z GFS Operational is a warm outlier compared to it's ensemble members for our event. It is also on the dry side of things as almost all of the members are as wet as the Op, but several members are much wetter/colder and would imply a major hit for a lot of areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It looks to me like the 18z GFS Operational is a warm outlier compared to it's ensemble members for our event. It is also on the dry side of things as almost all of the members are as wet as the Op, but several members are much wetter/colder and would imply a major hit for a lot of areas! The big four are not in agreement. Worries me that for almost two days the GFS has took to a dryer side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For the first time, the GEFS (18Z) actually has a mean of 1"+ of SN in some areas for 2/25-6! It has 1-4" in a band from N ALto E NC. That's pretty sig. imo. It isn't nearly as easy to get 1"+ on the GEFS as it is on the EPS. This is pure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 There are a ton of juicy panels on the 18z GEFS. Several sub-1000mb lows over the SE coast, a few before it even hits the coast. Like this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Local guy, Chris Justus , showed dry on Tuesday , showed precip South on Wed/Thur, says greenwood could get some light snow and said south if 85 could get the snow and expects it to stay south , but he would watch it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The big four are not in agreement. Worries me that for almost two days the GFS has took to a dryer side. From what I have seen things starting to come into better agreement. The last GFS run was worlds better than the one before it. The ensembles look really good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So confused lol I'll just watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Plugin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It looks to me like the 18z GFS Operational is a warm outlier compared to it's ensemble members for our event. It is also on the dry side of things as almost all of the members are as wet as the Op, but several members are much wetter/colder and would imply a major hit for a lot of areas! There are a ton of juicy panels on the 18z GEFS. Several sub-1000mb lows over the SE coast, a few before it even hits the coast. Not a single member is way amped and warm...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Local guy, Chris Justus , showed dry on Tuesday , showed precip South on Wed/Thur, says greenwood could get some light snow and said south if 85 could get the snow and expects it to stay south , but he would watch it! Typical, no tv met would say otherwise. You know threats are there so no need to worry about what they tell the general public at this stage. The NW trend will certainly commence, it's happened every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 TV Mets will mention it tomorrow night. Weekend mets on TV wouldn't dare touch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Definitely a trickle NW with the 18z GEFS. Also, it looked a lot better in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So confused lol I'll just watchAdd your location so we know where you are.There is a system for tomorrow and Tuesday that could bring a little light snow for parts of the area. The more impressive chance for snowfall is Wednesday night into Thursday. Different models develop it enough to produce a significant snowfall. Others show less development, keeping it suppressed. I would lean toward a more developed system. But basically we'll have to watch and see what the models show over the next 24 hours. Hope that helps. And welcome aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Definitely a trickle NW with the 18z GEFS. Also, it looked a lot better in the Gulf. If this storm trends NW, would the 2m and 850mb temps most likely trend NW also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'm in mauldin south Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 TV Mets will mention it tomorrow night. Weekend mets on TV wouldn't dare touch it.Even though he is a weekend met, he is the best local met around, IMO , and a snow weenie! I bet his Facebook page has more excitement and he probly hasn't seen the 18z, bet he will be more excited at 11 news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Thank you cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 If this storm trends NW, would the 2m and 850mb temps most likely trend NW also?Depends on strength , a stonger storm on the coastal track , could pull more cold air into the storm, it's a fine line we walk, always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Thank you cold rain No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 If this storm trends NW, would the 2m and 850mb temps most likely trend NW also? I would say yes. Although the front ahead of it will entrench some deep cold air at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'm in mauldin south Carolina dude - take this to banter or somewhere else ... we're/i'm from all over .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 ENSO analogs: late Feb/early Mar measurable SN/IP/ZR ATL has been rather concentrated considering the fairly small # of days. A respectable ~40% of these analogs had measurable wintry precip. there then. However, a good # of the nonproducing analogs weren't cold or wet in Feb. So, if we add to this 40% the fact that we continue in an unusually cold pattern (high correlation between very cold in Feb. and sig. wintry events) along with it being wet with a nice supply of subtropical moisture, it is hard to be more golden than we are climowise right now. That's why I'm so pumped about these modeled threats. The vast majority of Feb.'s don't give us this level of opportunity. I'll honestly be quite surprised if the ATL area doesn't at least get one measurable wintry event (likely SN). 2/21/1978 2/25/1964 2/26/1952 3/2/1942 2/21/1936 2/29/1920 2/25/1914 2/20/1905 2/23/1901 2/27-8/1886 2/24/1885 So, either/both the 2/24 and 2/25-6 potential events would fit in nicely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Probability of <1007mb low now 90%....now that's a gulf tap. Pretty big shift north from 0z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Most excellent. Speaking of probabilities, here is the probability of >4" of snowfall from the 15z SREF thru 6z (1 am) 2/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 00Z can't come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm tempted to quit the thread cold turkey and come back Tuesday night... haha. I know there will be some wobble in the models and I'll get sucked in to checking it every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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