packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Back to back coastals clip eastern NC/SC. The 2nd system was very close to a huge phaser.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You drinking already? Guess there is so much snow into SC that it can't even process it....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 What does this lead to? Stronger storm overall? Yes, stronger wave and the more it works towards negative tilt gets more precip farther north. We want the wave strong, but tracking just to the south of us...too far north and it's warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Back to back coastals clip eastern NC/SC. The 2nd system was very close to a huge phaser.... It was in the ball park I'd say, had the s/w been stronger. So many of these buggers moving through it's hard to keep count. Gonna need something to back it up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Guess there is so much snow into SC that it can't even process it....... Lol. It must be freezing rain!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Lol. It must be freezing rain!? No. It's warm. Look it over yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It was in the ball park I'd say, had the s/w been stronger. So many of these buggers moving through it's hard to keep count. Gonna need something to back it up though. LOL...that would be fun to get fringed on both .... I have a feeling we are not done with changes to the lead low, I wonder if it slows down allowing that northern stream energy diving down over the rockies catch it, then the PV phases into it and....well...that would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For those in the N ATL corridor (say Marietta) to Athens, 850 wetbulbs at 18Z on Wed. 2/25 on both the 12Z Euro and the 18Z GFS are ~0C. So, if enough precip. were to fall, the 850's would drop to ~0C (cold enough for snow). It is a close call for sure as modeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z GFS is way too warm for most of SC/GA for a big one. I better take my 1 inch on Tuesday and call it a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z NAVGEM... Looks very nice for the upstate. I believe this is the coldest run yet from the NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I better take my 1 inch on Tuesday and call it a winter! I think you need to go see the "doctor." The Euro has no idea what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Anytime you have a pre-existing barcolonic zone draped across the SE in the winter, you are highly increasing the opportunity for a ns/ss phase or even more so a triple phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Here is the trend loop for the 18z GFS at 66hrs courtesy of the Model Center. Here, you can see the vort energy holding itself together by wrapping into the base of the trough and pull the axis more neutral instead of holding positive and allowing the energy to "drain" out ahead of it as it was showing in previous runs. I think this will continue to be the overall trend... a stronger s/w able to hold its own longer, and will see a more stronger, more defined sfc low moving along the SE coastline. Now, as the GFS is prone to do, it weakens the s/w very quickly in the next couple of forecast hour panels. I doubt this will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z NAVGEM... Looks very nice for the upstate. I believe this is the coldest run yet from the NAVGEM. Yep. Precip is N/W of the 12z run, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So what's the status for a storm for the Greenville area I'm new to this weather stuff so I'm a bit confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So what's the status for a storm for the Greenville area I'm new to this weather stuff so I'm a bit confused Guess that depends on which Greenville your talking about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 So what's the status for a storm for the Greenville area I'm new to this weather stuff so I'm a bit confused Welcome to the board - it's impossible to say with the models right now but there is a good chance of seeing something wintry for the area this week (either of the Greenvilles!). To get caught up, I suggest you take a bit of a 'watch and learn' approach as things move along, it can be fast-paced in here at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 South Carolina The anthem on this board is 'Read more, post less'. You' ll learn that quickly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yep. Precip is N/W of the 12z run, as well. 18z NAVGEM!!! The new Dr no....how is it progressing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So has the latest models fizzled out the potential "big dog" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Nah he lives in High Point, NC. Yep. N High Point, just a couple miles from KGSO. I find it interesting that the progressive NAVGEM has consistently had a storm. It would tend to lead me to believe that we really have something on our hands. You'd normally expect it to be on the southern/eastern end of the envelope of guidance, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So has the latest models fizzled out the potential "big dog" Yep, nothing to see here. Come back next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 With the trough shifting westward, be aware that temperature profiles across Virginia southward could very well come in higher than being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Welcome to board. Right now just sit back and watch models. They have not been accurate all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For ATL-AHN on 2/25, the 18Z NAVGEM is quite a bit too warm at 2M, 850, and based on a 552ish thickness (I look for ~546). Hopefully this is out to lunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yep, nothing to see here. Come back next year. or 'cane season (god forbid...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yep, nothing to see here. Come back next year. That's not very nice to someone brand new here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odell.moton Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Its crazy I just joined this forum and I was catching up seeing all this anticipation of a big storm and get to the end and see"nothing to see here" welcome to the world of weather huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Its crazy I just joined this forum and I was catching up seeing all this anticipation of a big storm and get to the end and see"nothing to see here" welcome to the world of weather huh The problem is, all the info is laid out on these forum pages. The mets and others here don't want to see a cluster of "whats it going to do in my back yard" type of posts. If you looked a bit earlier even, I posted images of the GFS showing virtually no snow accumulation in Greenville, SC. If it happens, it happens. Just read along. You can freely say almost whatever you want in the Banter thread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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