NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 RAH DISCUSSION mentions the possibility, but also mentions that temperatures will be very mild on wednesday so it could be a rain changing to snow type deal... Would we get a lot of accumulation on grass and roads from that scenario? Seems like they would be pretty warm. That was written at 3:00 this morning. Long term AFD still isnt out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Moral of the story is, this has super potential folks...Don't be so upset that it changes a bunch...either way, I love the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 HPC doing it's normal thing of compromising but that still leans a wetter/further north system. OUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST ON TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST AT THE SURFACEON TUE...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW. THE 925-850MB REFLECTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE GULF COASTSTATES AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSESTHE APPALACHIANS WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LEADING TO SHOWERSTHROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE THE INVERSION OVER THE GULF COASTSTATES...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE PRESENT ALONGWITH WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WHICH COULD ALLOW ACONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE SHOWERS NEAR/NORTH OF THE FLORIDAPANHANDLE. THE 12Z GFS WAS FLATTER AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT WITHTHE 925 MB REFLECTION OF A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST STATESAND WAS THEREFORE A DRY OUTLIER FOR DAY 2...00Z/24-25. A 12ZNAM/00Z ECMWF BLEND WAS USED HERE GIVEN THE SIMILARITY OF THE TWOMODELS AND THEIR AGREEMENT ON THE WEAK WAVE WITH THE LATESTDETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE....FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATESTUE-WED...A CLOSED LOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...00Z/24...WILL BE PRESENTOVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH AN EXPECTED WEAKENING/OPENINGUP AS THE FEATURE TRACKS EWD THROUGH TUE. SOME TIMING ANDPLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ARE STILL PRESENT WITH THIS WAVE BUT AT THESURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ORGANIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OUTAHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH THESTRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW MAKING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR THESOUTHEAST. GIVEN NWD TRENDS IN MANY OF THE 12Z MODELS WITH THEVORT MAX PASSING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON WED...A BLEND OF THE 12ZGFS AND 12Z ECWMF WAS USED...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWING A MOREAMPLIFIED NATURE COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS/ECMWF ALSOAGREE WELL WITH TIMING...WHILE THE 12Z NAM IS FASTER...12Z CMC day 3 day 1-3 total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 To me this looks like a pretty classic setup on the NAM for a northern deepsouth/southern MA snowstorm at 500mb. Cutoff/upper low over new england and cutoff stj low over tx and into the deep south. i would love to see this trend towards a cutoff longer and longer and then it could get real interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 To me this looks like a pretty classic setup on the NAM for a northern deepsouth/southern MA snowstorm at 500mb. Cutoff/upper low over new england and cutoff stj low over tx and into the deep south. i would love to see this trend towards a cutoff longer and longer and then it could get real interesting. That's what I'm crossing my fingers for. I know from past storms, you won't see the cutoff until with 24-28 hrs on the models, so I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see the MA get in on this as well, possibly getting up to the delmarva before moving out. As I said earlier, these small differences at the 500mb level can mean a big one at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I love that the Euro jumped on board and looked awesome. Maybe I am off base, but it seems a lot of times the other models will sniff out a trend, and then a few days out the Euro will jump on board and lock in on things, telling all the other models that the king is here and then they start to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 NWS ILM's latest discussion--they favor the suppressed GFS for Wednesday night-Thursday's system: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LARGE...BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP...TROUGHWILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAINTAINCOLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. COLD FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SERVE AS THEBAROCLINIC GRADIENT ALONG WHICH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL SPAWNSEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE NONE OF THESE WILL BEIMPRESSIVELY STRONG...EACH ONE WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OFPRECIP TO THE AREA. TWO QUESTIONS WILL SURROUND EACH PASSING WAVE OFLOW PRESSURE HOWEVER...HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL EXTEND NORTH FROM THELOW...AND WHETHER COLD ENOUGH AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MIXED P-TYPE. THE FIRST OF THESE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOOKS NOW TO BETHE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS TRACKING THIS SURFACELOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THUS SLINGINGMORE PRECIP INTO THE CAROLINAS. ADMITTEDLY...THE E-W ORIENTEDBAROCLINIC ZONE DOES NOT`T SUPPORT A VERY FAR WEST TRACK AND WILL LEANMORE ON THE DRIER GFS...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH COLD HIGH PRESSUREIN PLACE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SOME FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP...EVENTHOUGH RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. THE ECMWF...WHICHIS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS PRECIP...IS ALSO COLDER...BUT EVEN THE GFSDEPICTS A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP. LOCAL TOP-DOWN METHODOLOGYPRODUCES PRIMARILY RAIN AS EXPECTED...BUT HAVE LEFT A PERIOD OF MIXPRECIP...RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW ONLY FAR NW...LATE WED NIGHT. QPFWILL BE LIGHT AND POP IS LOW...BUT SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHTBEFORE TEMPS WARM TO SUPPORT ONLY RAIN DURING THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTOFRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLEDBOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...EVEN DURING THIS "DRIER" PERIOD ASCHC POP REMAINS WARRANTED DUE TO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THEOFFSHORE BAROCLINIC GRADIENT - AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THETIMING/TRACK OF THESE FEATURES. THE PAST FEW DAYS...ECMWF/GFS HADSHOWN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP LOCALLYFRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MUCH OF WHICH WOULD BE OF THEFREEZING-TO-LIQUID TRANSITION VARIETY. TODAY...GUIDANCE HAS BACKEDOFF CONSIDERABLY...WHICH MAY MAKE SENSE DUE TO THE EXPECTED QUICKE/NE TRACK OF SURFACE FEATURES. STILL...AM INCLINED TO MAKE ONLYMINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME AS THIS REPRESENTS A NEWSOLUTION...AND WILL LEAVE LOW MENTIONABLE POP WITH MIXED P-TYPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's what I'm crossing my fingers for. I know from past storms, you won't see the cutoff until with 24-28 hrs on the models, so I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see the MA get in on this as well, possibly getting up to the delmarva before moving out. Yea if that happens, i think most of north ms/al/ga/sc/tn/nc/s va would be in store for a nice snowstorm. There are a lot of analogs for a setup like this. Just hope we can get some model consistency on this the next 24 hours and i think we can reel it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z GFS, the southern low is stronger, and upstream ridging a hair stronger as well by 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z GFS, the southern low is stronger, and upstream ridging a hair stronger as well by 45 hrs Yep....18z GFS might weenie out.... Edit: Changes were evident early on, by hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 @60 it's definitely trending the way of the other models @63 it's already "wrapping" the vort energy and trying to go neutral.. great look. I can tell you right now the sfc low will further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Could be a weenie run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 watching the trend loop, it's the NE vortex trending farther north that's allowing the southern wave to have some breathing room here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 @60 it's definitely trending the way of the other models @63 it's already "wrapping" the vort energy and trying to go neutral.. great look. I can tell you right now the sfc low will further north. Not sure we can draw up a better run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Could be a weenie run! probably will still be too far south but in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 @hr 78 18z GFS moves the low 150-200 miles NE from the 12z run at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z GFS is way too warm for most of SC/GA for a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 probably will still be too far south but in the right direction At this point not sure I would change anything, just let the trickle continue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z much improved over the past runs of the day. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not there but came north. It is warmer than the othere models too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 System #2 right behind it might be interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z GFS is way too warm for most of SC/GA for a big one.You drinking already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The going trend is clear with holding the wave stronger as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Decent run for SE NC with an inch or two. Precip makes it to Raleigh with a flizzard. Definitely a much better run the past GFS runs, though not there yet, obviously. I would say that this definitely leads to further support of the UKMET/Euro at this point with the GFS definitely trending towards them. The 18z NAM wasn't as good of a look, but the LR NAM is sketchy and basically useless, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not there but came north. It is warmer than the othere models too 850 line is in central SC? 2m's are not frigid but the 2m line is running down I-40 with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The going trend is clear with holding the wave stronger as it moves east.What does this lead to? Stronger storm overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You drinking already? I'll look at it again incase, but pretty sure the 850 line was far North... give me a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 glad to see the gfs make baby steps toward a euro solution. 00z run will be a doozy im sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Decent run for SE NC with an inch or two. Precip makes it to Raleigh with a flizzard. Definitely a much better run the past GFS runs, though not there yet, obviously. I would say that this definitely leads to further support of the UKMET/Euro at this point with the GFS definitely trending towards them. The 18z NAM wasn't as good of a look, but the LR NAM is sketchy and basically useless, anyways. NAM looked great until 72 or so, then decided to give up its energy and didn't know where to place the sfc low. But that's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Systems #2 was almost huge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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