burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Don't leave me out man, MWK lol.. You do this every year there is a Miller A and every year you cash in. What are you so worried about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looked at the ens tracks. Just pointing out that IF the GFS ens is right this COULD be a bust. NOT saying this will happen, just presenting the other side. Don't shoot the messenger! lol I pretty much guarantee the GFS trends to the Euro the next few runs.......in fact this is EXACTLY where I want to see the GFS in this range with the current setup....it is ALWAYS the last one to get on board whenever I get hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z NAM looks to be setting up to be another big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yeah, that's not happening with the mid-week system as currently modeled. We are dealing with a leftover, semi-cold air mass that is hanging on by a thread...less temp concerns as you go north and west, obviously You are correct. Storm track looks good, but I could see how this very well turns out for many of us in AL, GA, and much of SC to be a cold week of rain and drizzle. We are close though and there is a huge amount of uncertainty. You can hear it in virtually forecast discussion you read. I keep looking at the 12Z EPS mean LP placement. Could not ask for much better for me. Just need enough cold air to help precip. type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z ECMWF ENS mean looks pretty good. Mean of 6+ inches from around Sanford NE to Elizabeth City including RDU. fwiw it Looks like the euro enss are a little bit colder across ga and sc than the operational. at face value it's a bit colder than the operational run during the peak of the storm across ga/sc. It looks like it would be cold enough for a changeover to snow from just south of atlanta to columbia. Wish i could see a full sounding for areas along the transition zone to determine if this is purely a rain and snow situation or if there is a zone of sleet in between. What i'm dying to know really is if there is a possibility of evaporational cooling as the precip moves in along the northern portions of the precip shield like the nam is strongly showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I pretty much guarantee the GFS trends to the Euro the next few runs.......in fact this is EXACTLY where I want to see the GFS in this range with the current setup....it is ALWAYS the last one to get on board whenever I get hammered with snow. Hope it trends towards the Euro. I dont think this board can take another bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 15Z SREF for RDU really isn't that impressive. The mean is only 1 inch or so... but it stop at 1AM Thursday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You do this every year there is a Miller A and every year you cash in. What are you so worried about? I'm not worried, If I don't get any snow, I'm not going lose no sleep over it! I was just asking him if he would throw in MWK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z NAM looks to be setting up to be another big run. looks a little flatter and slightly more positively tilted than 12z to me at HR51. might not make much of a difference though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z NAM is further suppressed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 15Z SREF for RDU really isn't that impressive. The mean is only 1 inch or so... but it stop at 1AM Thursday.. The end of the run is at hr 87... i.e. basically before the storm would hopefully get cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z NAM is an I-20 special. Big snows for ATL - CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Nam looks flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 18z NAM is an I-20 special. Big snows for ATL - CAE Right where we want it right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 lease let that be right 18z nam..hahahahah SMAHSES I-20 in AL and GA south to the middle of GA and AL and MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 IMO, where I sit in the upstate of SC. I am more worried about this storm going too far north and giving me rain than it missing to my south. But overall, I like where I sit right now. We have lock step agreement between the Euro, EPS members, and the Ukmet at 84 hours out.. when the the system is already over North America being sampled properly. Edit: This is in reference to the Wednesday Night/Thursday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 for 18z nam, what storm are y'all talking about? What's it show for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 IMO, where I sit in the upstate of SC. I am more worried about this storm going too far north and giving me rain than it missing to my south. But overall, I like where I sit right now. We have lock step agreement between the Euro, EPS members, and the Ukmet at 84 hours out.. when the the system is already over North America being sampled properly. Edit: This is in reference to the Wednesday Night/Thursday storm Bingo, I'm right with you burrel...probably comes with the territory though with us normally more worried about temps. NAM run was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 for 18z nam, what storm are y'all talking about? What's it show for RDU This if for Wed/Thurs, 2/25 through 2/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Major QPF down this way... if it ended up snow, my God the accumulation we would end up with. I am 100% all in with today's 12z runs. Glancing, it looks like 2 inches + of liquid. Which event are we talking about here? How does GSP look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Folks, the focus of this thread is pretty much on Wed-Thurs. There is a separate thread for Mon-Tues - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45828-february-23rd-24th-winter-weather-discussionobs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The storm for the 28th still on the table or did it shift forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 This if for Wed/Thurs, 2/25 through 2/26. P'tree City has decided to bite on Tues morn with snow in my point forecast. Wed night however is too far off so it's rain and 32 I think this week for us will entail a lot of looking out the window from time to time, lol, but something tells me we'll get in on the fun, finally. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The storm for the 28th still on the table or did it shift forward? It's a day or 2 later, and warm...a no go now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 RAH is taking a while to get out the discussion for that time frame... must be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It's a day or 2 later, and warm...a no go nowThanks! Maybe there's a chance I can get from Raleigh to Salisbury NC and back Saturday depending on how long the frozen stuff stick around from the Thurs event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 IMO, where I sit in the upstate of SC. I am more worried about this storm going too far north and giving me rain than it missing to my south. But overall, I like where I sit right now. We have lock step agreement between the Euro, EPS members, and the Ukmet at 84 hours out.. when the the system is already over North America being sampled properly. Edit: This is in reference to the Wednesday Night/Thursday storm GSP ain't feeling much of nothing for this entire week. Very little moisture forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 RAH DISCUSSION mentions the possibility, but also mentions that temperatures will be very mild on wednesday so it could be a rain changing to snow type deal... Would we get a lot of accumulation on grass and roads from that scenario? Seems like they would be pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GSP ain't feeling much of nothing for this entire week. Very little moisture forecasted. They're being conservative. That's why their discussion stated changes are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 RAH DISCUSSION mentions the possibility, but also mentions that temperatures will be very mild on wednesday so it could be a rain changing to snow type deal... Would we get a lot of accumulation on grass and roads from that scenario? Seems like they would be pretty warm. very weak disco from them but who can blame them, lots of uncertainty and they can fine tune the disco tomorrow after the 00z runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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