10below Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's ok, Cold Rain will keep you company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 hr87 or 3 and a half days. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 How far out does the plumes go? 1AM on Thursday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150222&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MWK&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=35.99720654898594&mLON=-81.41281289216451&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 My Midlands brothers will be glad to know the 15z SREF is more than cold enough for the early hit Tues/Weds before the big show. The only question is how much moisture. If an early snow appetizer does occur, that could be quite beneficial for you up there. My gut tells me the Midlands might get crushed, just a gut feeling, no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well, we have the 12z UKMET, 15z SREF, 12z Euro too warm in the midlands for the main show it seems. Darn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 SREF look good for my area overall. One member has me getting over a foot easily. LOL. You better be glad it's Friday and I'm in a good mood. It is? The Geico commercial just told me it's Hump Day. Stupid camels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 SREF plumes for KSPA show a mean of 2.5" with a couple crush jobs of 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well, we have the 12z UKMET, 15z SREF, 12z Euro too warm in the midlands for the main show it seems. Darn. All have known warm biases at the range. Let's hope the storm idea and track stays favorable for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 All have known warm biases at the range. Let's hope the storm idea and track stays favorable for all of us. I just took a look at the low resolution quick EPS stamps.. and while many members have some kind of accumulation through day 5, they are in suprising agreement to keep the heavier precipitation (Winter weather) just North of Lake Murray SC. No real big Monsters for the Midlands mixed in. The Control & Mean are very close to the Operational. Edit: The SREF does turn a big area over to snow as the coastal pulls up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Ukie agrees with the nam on a light event here Tuesday then the bigger event along with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You better be glad it's Friday and I'm in a good mood. It's a good day so far! Jeff is dominating the 500 so far! --- The EPS control run is further N/W than the op Euro and a huge hit for most of NC. Track: 1004 mb just south of Mobile (hr 78) -> 999 mb just north of Pensacola (hr 84) -> 998 mb just offshore of CHS (hr 90) -> 995 mb LP ~100 miles offshore of Emerald Isle, NC (hr 96). The snowfall mean is the best yet! Looks like 4-6" for GSO/CLT/RDU with a pocket of 6"+ near Roanoke Rapids with 2-4" all the way through N MS/N AL/N GA/NW SC. The mean EPS track is basically right on top of the control run's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well....Can we FINALLY get some wintry weather around the Southern plains, SE and the Mid-South? Models keep trending better and better, but will they be cold enough to produce? Check out the video for more on my Facebook page. Please take a minute to watch the video, like the page and spread word if you want/havn't yet. Thanks everyone! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Euro control and ensembles on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 In all seriousness, Some of todays model depictions look as if they are just what we need to give many of us (especially south) a winter storm. Let's hope the storm track stays along the gulf coast/FL panhandle and we get a good high placement for strong wedging. Yeah, that's not happening with the mid-week system as currently modeled. We are dealing with a leftover, semi-cold air mass that is hanging on by a thread...less temp concerns as you go north and west, obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 1AM on Thursday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150222&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MWK&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=35.99720654898594&mLON=-81.41281289216451&mTYP=roadmap Appreciate it! 15z Plumes has MWK at 1.64 mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Appreciate it! No problem. If you save that link, when it updates you have to click on the new time stamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z ECMWF ENS mean looks pretty good. Mean of 6+ inches from around Sanford NE to Elizabeth City including RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Good tends guys but I am still a doubting Thomas. If models are showing this on Wed then I might jump on board, but I feel like I've seen this show too many times before. All I can think is that there is NO way what is showing now will actually happen. It WILL trend NW and the upstate will do well to be on the fringe. Until something different happens I just can't expect anything different. I'm also concerned about temps. I do like the looks now, just don't think they hold till the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z ECMWF ENS mean looks pretty good. Mean of 6+ inches from around Sanford NE to Elizabeth City including RDU. It's a Murphy to Manteo Beaut, Whats your thoughts about Tuesday mischief, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Euro Ensembles suggest a further north track than the OP. Snow mean is best through East TN and central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GSP not biting on any wintry weather this week for the upstate. Only mention is mix of rain and snow Sat night. Temps too warm each day as well. Hope their just being conservative and taking wait and see stance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It's a good day so far! Jeff is dominating the 500 so far! --- The EPS control run is further N/W than the op Euro and a huge hit for most of NC. Track: 1004 mb just south of Mobile (hr 78) -> 999 mb just north of Pensacola (hr 84) -> 998 mb just offshore of CHS (hr 90) -> 995 mb LP ~100 miles offshore of Emerald Isle, NC (hr 96). The snowfall mean is the best yet! Looks like 4-6" for GSO/CLT/RDU with a pocket of 6"+ near Roanoke Rapids with 2-4" all the way through N MS/N AL/N GA/NW SC. The mean EPS track is basically right on top of the control run's track. Don't leave me out man, MWK lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z Euro ensemble locations. Looks pretty good for most of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think it's time to start a separate thread for the Tuesday morning storm for GA/SC... the NAM is still showing a dusting to 3 inches of snow for these area's with temps in the low 30's to upper 20's. Edit: Nevermind, I see one has been started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z Euro ensemble locations. Looks pretty good for most of us! There are some really nice big dogs in there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GSP discounting the GFS as outlier. At this point, they are about as confident as they can be. Notice the last section. Over my many decades of weather watching, I have seen many times where we get a winter storm either on the front or end of a pattern change.... .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...THE PRIMARY EXCITEMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGEOCCURS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL PRECIPEVENT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY MAX/COASTAL CYCLONE.THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT IN SPREADING MOISTURE ANDPRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE WESTERNCAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA BY WED EVENING. IT HAS QUITE A BIT OFSUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE GFS REMAINS QUITE DRYOVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ONLY AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISONWITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT IS ALSO AN OUTLIER AMONG THEGLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM. IN FACT...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS PRODUCESMORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREA DURINGTHIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS DURING THISTIME...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. APERFECT PROG OF THE ECMWF SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRYPRECIP...PRIMARILY A RAIN/SNOW ISSUE IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG WAA/WARM NOSE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE MTNS STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OFSEEING SNOW. OF COURSE...THESE DETAILS ARE SUBJECT...AND IN FACTLIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.OTHERWISE...THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL FEATURE CONTINUED BELOW NORMALTEMPS...AS THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH MAINTAINS A STRONGCONNECTION WITH THE HIGH LATITUDES...ALLOWING YET ANOTHER EXPANSIVECANADIAN HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA DURINGTHE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT APATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...INDICATING MAJOR WESTERNHEIGHT FALLS...AND RESULTANT EASTERN CONUS HEIGHT RISES BY NEXTWEEKEND. ESTABLISHMENT OF DEEP SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SHOULDFINALLY INITIATE A WARMING TREND BY DAY 7...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILLLIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z Euro ensemble locations. Looks pretty good for most of us! Nice 50/50 Low Cluster. Nice confidence builder not to mention our storm for mby sitting dead square where I need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GSP not biting on any wintry weather this week for the upstate. Only mention is mix of rain and snow Sat night. Temps too warm each day as well. Hope their just being conservative and taking wait and see stance I suppose you are referring to your specific forecast. I thought their discussion write-up was completely reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looked at the ens tracks. Just pointing out that IF the GFS ens is right this COULD be a bust. NOT saying this will happen, just presenting the other side. Don't shoot the messenger! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I'm perfectly fine with the GFS being on the SE edge of guidance 4-5days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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