Stormsfury Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 850 low track runs roughly from southeast Alabama to Myrtle Beach. If you were one to throw out the 84hr NAM, then you have to also throw out the Euro since they were in agreement, lol Ask NYC how the EE rule worked out for them in the mega blizzard. Good to know with the 850mb low, however. That keeps the midlands purely in the game. Eastern SC is sstill hosed with thw 850mb low north of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Good to know. It does look like a tight window for us according to what free Euro maps we get. That's about as pretty as they come.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's about as pretty as they come.... KCAE/Midlands need it just about 50-75 miles further South with the cold and the predominant ptype would remain snow with 2" + of liquid. In theory of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 KCAE/Midlands need it just about 50-75 miles further South with the cold and the predominant ptype would remain snow with 2" + of liquid. In theory of course. Yeah its gonna be close for you guys, I am sure it will move around some the next few days crushing and raising hopes as it does..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z Euro nails NC again with 7-11" at 234hr although weird look with the moisture/temps and track of the low seems silly, I'd discount it..appears to be a mess and highly CAD dependent, but the total accumulated snowfall at 240 might make it's rounds on social media today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Latest SREF run looks awesome. Game on boys game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Latest SREF run looks awesome. Game on boys game on. Excellent. I'll bring the beer and a blue turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Latest SREF run looks awesome. Game on boys game on. I was a little worried about SFC temps until I looked at the 3 hour euro data. Looks like we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 This would happen on midterm week....sigh. Snow looks likely this week now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 This would happen on midterm week....sigh. Snow looks likely this week now! I have a final friday, but the amount I'm going to be studying vs glancing at models I'm going to want this storm to happen and get postponed otherwise I'm in trouble...haha. It's ridiculously addicting, I wish I loved studying as much as I love storm tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Wow, the 15z SREF has a mean of 2" in here by hr 87. I was a little worried about SFC temps until I looked at the 3 hour euro data. Looks like we're good. I get a sense that as long as mid-levels temps are okay, we'll be okay with the BL going isothermal and us getting near-freezing paste. Maybe I'm wrong, though. I have a final friday, but the amount I'm going to be studying vs glancing at models I'm going to want this storm to happen and get postponed otherwise I'm in trouble...haha. It's ridiculously addicting, I wish I loved studying as much as I love storm tracking. Are you guys on the quarter system or something? I've got a midterm on Thursday, so I hope that's postponed, too, LOL. The week before spring break is going to be hell, then, as I have another midterm that week and a paper, but it is what it is. Most of my HW is on the computer (lots of statistical software), so it's so easy to slip over to Chrome and bring this forum up that I can't help myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12z Euro nails NC again with 7-11" at 234hr although weird look with the moisture/temps and track of the low seems silly, I'd discount it..appears to be a mess and highly CAD dependent, but the total accumulated snowfall at 240 might make it's rounds on social media today... I assume you agree that a large majority of that for much of NC at 210-34 on the 12Z Euro is ZR/IP rather than SN. 850's are largely above 0 C for many there other than the north/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I assume you agree that a large majority of that for much of NC at 210-34 on the 12Z Euro is ZR/IP rather than SN. 850's are largely above 0 C for many there other than the north/NW.Yes I agree 100% Larry which is why the snowfall map at 240 that would be making rounds would be a joke. I was cycling through the snowfall map to 240 and laughed when I looked at 850s and just the track of the system. I like the Thursday threat for all snow for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Latest SREF run looks awesome. Game on boys game on. I am feeling this also. This is the FIRST TIME THIS ENTIRE WINTER that I have gotten genuinely excited! When do you come back from LA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Where are you getting the 15z SREF info? I'm only out to 36 on AmWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Where are you getting the 15z SREF info? I'm only out to 36 on AmWx. Plumes are out on the NWS site. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Where are you getting the 15z SREF info? I'm only out to 36 on AmWx. Plumes for 15z are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Plumes are out on the NWS site. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php Oh, ok. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Wow, the 15z SREF has a mean of 2" in here by hr 87. I get a sense that as long as mid-levels temps are okay, we'll be okay with the BL going isothermal and us getting near-freezing paste. Maybe I'm wrong, though. Are you guys on the quarter system or something? I've got a midterm on Thursday, so I hope that's postponed, too, LOL. The week before spring break is going to be hell, then, as I have another midterm that week and a paper, but it is what it is. Most of my HW is on the computer (lots of statistical software), so it's so easy to slip over to Chrome and bring this forum up that I can't help myself. Looks like the margin of error is north on this run of the sref. A lot of the member apparently take the SLP over the fl panhandle and end up over hatteras. That track is generally a good one for most of NC. I am more worried about sleet now than i am whiffing on this one here in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 My Midlands brothers will be glad to know the 15z SREF is more than cold enough for the early hit Tues/Weds before the big show. The only question is how much moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I don't understand this comment. We always have to take what we can get. We have no control over the weather. It's not a matter of choice or preference.Good post. Thanks for again being a voice of reason. However, if we didn't have to take what we get and could specifically order it up, I would like a few weeks of what Boston has been getting. Then, I would like a nice pleasant spring with no pollen. After that I'll take a cool summer with low humidity and temps that never get above 85. I will follow that up a cool fall with above average rainfall and good fall color. In all seriousness, Some of todays model depictions look as if they are just what we need to give many of us (especially south) a winter storm. Let's hope the storm track stays along the gulf coast/FL panhandle and we get a good high placement for strong wedging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Having a hard time keeping up with you guys on what days are what. I'll just go sit in the corner with my dunce cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Having a hard time keeping up with you guys on what days are what. I'll just go sit in the corner with my dunce cap. That's ok, Cold Rain will keep you company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 12z UKMET is out on WB. Definitely a better look than the 00z run last night, though not quite as heavy as yesterday's 12z run. All-snow for RDU and CLT, FWIW. The track is great. 1000 mb LP just north of Pensacola at hr 84 going over to east of SAV at hr 90. I think us NC folks could use it turning the corner a little more as the precip shield isn't that extensive, but it still shows a good 3-5" for most of NC/upstate SC/N GA/N AL/SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's ok, Cold Rain will keep you company You better be glad it's Friday and I'm in a good mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Plumes for 15z are out. How far out does the plumes go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Up to 3 inches on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 12z UKMET is out on WB. Definitely a better look than the 00z run last night, though not quite as heavy as yesterday's 12z run. All-snow for RDU and CLT, FWIW. The track is great. 1000 mb LP just north of Pensacola at hr 84 going over to east of SAV at hr 90. I think us NC folks could use it turning the corner a little more as the precip shield isn't that extensive, but it still shows a good 3-5" for most of NC/upstate SC/NE GA/SE VA. yeah a little shift north would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 How far out does the plumes go? hr87 or 3 and a half days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 On the higher res thickness maps, it looks like the 15z SREF is moving the 1300m line North quickly away from ATL/CAE etc as the precip starts coming in. Not sure where it will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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