griteater Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The GFS did the best on qpf forecast for the upstate as the event was starting. It was the only model showing a relative minima of around .50 inches of liquid for the upstate and it verified perfectly. I was thinking the same thing on the GFS burrel, just going off memory. On the flip side, it was the worst model in the 2-5 day range with poor southern stream wave handling (the Para hasn't fixed that evidently). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I was thinking the same thing on the GFS burrel, just going off memory. On the flip side, it was the worst model in the 2-5 day range with poor southern stream wave handling (the Para hasn't fixed that evidently). It's kind of funny that the NAM in the 60 to 84 hour timeframe did pretty well with this storm, but the GFS did better inside of 24 hours. The GFS also did better in the upstate with qpf for the early week snow right before the event started. It also did the worst with that storm in the 48 to 96hr timeframe. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Is it me or have last couple of GFS runs, especially 6Z, shown increasing CAD? I'm starting to wonder if sleet could possibly end up as a dominant ptype in/near much of ATL/AHN area. Any opinions? Steve, Look at the 6Z GFS progged 925's vs 850's for MGE, PDK, and AHN. They're generally colder and at -1 C most of the time while 850's are as warm as +1 C. So, 4K feet above ground 34 F while it is 30 F at 2K feet above ground?? That seems sleety if those levels were to be accurate. In the past, I've noticed 850's in the +1C to +2.5C range while there is decent wedging has resulted in sleet as the main precip type. Regardless, 2M temp's, which are a little warmer on this GFS run, are almost certainly quite a bit too warm and would likely be closer to 28-30 F. Opinions Steve or others? Per the above, while I was dead wrong on thinking 2M temp.'s would be mainly ~28-30 F in the N ATL-AHN corridor (a key miss there as it was more like 32-34) and there was more plain rain late than I ever imagined would occur (I thought plain rain would be mainly early), I was not wrong to bring up sleet. I don't know if it was actually dominant over snow/rain precipwise in any one spot, but there sure seemed to be sleet falling for a decent % of the time in a good bit of the area either in a mix or alone, including here in Dunwoody. So, those GFS soundings showing just above 0C at 850 and just below 0C at 925 for a decent portion of the storm may have actually been accurate thus suggesting some sleet. So, kudos for the GFS for that? Plus the GFS also had the 2M about right. All I'm seeing is GFS bashing/no kudos.Regardless, with the ground mainly above 32, there must not have been any real wedging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I stayed at 32.4 F for ~ 15 hours. Went from big fat wet flakes to sleet and then to ice pellets. Damn warm nose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The current GFS should never be looked at again, ever, with southern stream upper lows until the event is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The current GFS should never be looked at again, ever, with southern stream upper lows until the event is underway.you could throw the euro in there too. The ukie has done great and surprisingly the navgem has too. I don't know what it is this year but it has done really well with east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 you could throw the euro in there too. The ukie has done great and surprisingly the navgem has too. I don't know what it is this year but it has done really well with east coast storms. Yeah, not really sure what's different about the Euro lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I stayed at 32.4 F for ~ 15 hours. Went from big fat wet flakes to sleet and then to ice pellets. Damn warm nose... Sleet is the same thing as ice pellets. Did you mean snow to sleet then rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Sleet is the same thing as ice pellets. Did you mean snow to sleet then rain? Was that really worth bumping over a week later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Was that really worth bumping over a week later?Has isohomey and the boys written a summary of this storm yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Sleet is the same thing as ice pellets. Did you mean snow to sleet then rain? What I meant was it went from little white bouncy balls to almost clear wet looking pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Here's the map from RAH: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20150226.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Y'all skipped SC with the maps!? Is there one of these for SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 What I meant was it went from little white bouncy balls to almost clear wet looking pellets. The distinction is that sleet is translucent...graupel (snow pellets, rimed snow) is not..these are the white bouncy balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 The distinction is that sleet is translucent...graupel (snow pellets, rimed snow) is not..these are the white bouncy balls. I wonder if graupel tends to be under reported in relation to both snow and sleet. I hardly ever see graupel reports. Or does it tend to actually be relatively rare due to it perhaps mainly being a transition form of precip? Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I wonder if graupel tends to be under reported in relation to both snow and sleet. I hardly ever see graupel reports. Or does it tend to actually be relatively rare due to it perhaps mainly being a transition form of precip? Any opinions? A lot of us on this board see graupel frequently enough. The general public probably has no idea what graupel is. I would guess it's under-reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 A lot of us on this board see graupel frequently enough. The general public probably has no idea what graupel is. I would guess it's under-reported. Many grapple with graupel. In fact, the spell check in Chrome does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Many grapple with graupel. In fact, the spell check in Chrome does too. Lol. iPhone changed it to grapple the first time I typed it because obviously it knows best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Lol. iPhone changed it to grapple the first time I typed it because obviously it knows best.I grapple with gridlock traffic! Man, I love snow and cold, but it was beautiful outside today! Hit 75 degrees! Time to dust off the ambassadeurs and the Pings!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.