Scooter Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 So about a foot here in total? I'm in. I think we have a great shot at 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setzy1517 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think we have a great shot at 12" I'm thinking closer to 8-10" but who knows, it has been coming down hard here for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 okay i don't get that nevermind I do. mine was sarcasm Just be careful when you go outside. The Dothraki are afraid of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 It looked to me like the RAP totally lost the back side energy. Should it do anything or is it going to completely die? TW ULL is caput. after this low departs, only flurries and light snow will remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viper652 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Another gigantic bust on the I-95 corridor. Was suppose to get 12 inches, will only end up with a couple. These things NEVER pan out. NEVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Another gigantic bust on the I-95 corridor. Was suppose to get 12 inches, will only end up with a couple. These things NEVER pan out. NEVER this storm was an under performer for a lot of folks, just a lot of waste of some nice cold temps this past month and only this storm to show for it. Ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Just wanted to post this so when we are discussing which model did the best... QPF wise, the RGEM and 4km NAM did fairly well. The RGEM did well with temps showing snow/sleet/rain mix for Raleigh and was good with amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Another gigantic bust on the I-95 corridor. Was suppose to get 12 inches, will only end up with a couple. These things NEVER pan out. NEVER I got 6-7" of snow, which was well in the range the NWS gave. Seemed to work out fine here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Another gigantic bust on the I-95 corridor. Was suppose to get 12 inches, will only end up with a couple. These things NEVER pan out. NEVER I'm not sure I saw any forcaster guarantee anything much less 12 inches. There were many very publicized reasons why this storm could under perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Seeing on the news that we could see a dusting or more this afternoon when a line of precip sweeps across central nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Seeing on the news that we could see a dusting or more this afternoon when a line of precip sweeps across central nc?Uhh what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Uhh what? Yeah. That's what I said. WXII just reported that we will have an upper level disturbance come through at 2-3 pm and we could see a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Here's the 18Z RGEM snowfall map from yesterday. I think it did pretty good overall. It's been pretty reliable this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Here's the 18Z RGEM snowfall map from yesterday. I think it did pretty good overall. It's been pretty reliable this winter. Need to double that for here. RGEM showing about 3 for here. We got 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Here's the 18Z RGEM snowfall map from yesterday. I think it did pretty good overall. It's been pretty reliable this winter. RGEM/Euro/UKIE lead the way with this one. The GFS continues to be a steaming pile of dung. While these three models were off by 50-75 miles at times with placement they did good with the overall setup. The GFS was clueless and played catch up from day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 RGEM/Euro/UKIE lead the way with this one. The GFS continues to be a steaming pile of dung. While these three models were off by 50-75 miles at times with placement they did good with the overall setup. The GFS was clueless and played catch up from day 1.lol.. other than the gfs every other model was better than the euro. The nam did the best with this storm. Can't believe I actually said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 lol.. other than the gfs every other model was better than the euro. The nam did the best with this storm. Can't believe I actually said that. And that's EXACTLY what Robert said it would do. He said that the NAM was best at handling those SW lows. Experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 And that's EXACTLY what Robert said it would do. He said that the NAM was best at handling those SW lows. Experience. I think the NAM is a valuable tool when used correctly. Just don't ever look at a snowfall map and cut the precip in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 lol.. other than the gfs every other model was better than the euro. The nam did the best with this storm. Can't believe I actually said that. NAM was decent but the Euro latched on to the general idea around day 5 in it's wheelhouse and never let it go. The GFS we agree was atrocious. Failing to mention that the Double EE was in effect meaning the NAM and Euro esentialy showed the same thing at 500mb. They both did well in their wheelhouses. Euro>GFS per usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The RGEM did the best in the closing hours, at least for this area. I think the NAM did best showing the setup several days beforehand. Honestly, the NAVGEM was right there with it, too. The GFS was probably the worst and the Euro wasn't really any better. The Euro had RDU and GSO as a sub-0.3" QPF event (less than 0.2" here) with really cold 850s just less than 24 hours from the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think the NAM is a valuable tool when used correctly. Just don't ever look at a snowfall map and cut the precip in half. I dunno folks in the east did at or above the totals it was calling for we had over 1.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 And that's EXACTLY what Robert said it would do. He said that the NAM was best at handling those SW lows. Experience. Yes he did early in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I dunno folks in the east did at or above the totals it was calling for we had over 1.5" here. At least one NAM had 1.5" qpf for ATL-AHN and it ended up near 0.50". Others were very wet. The NAM is almost always way too wet in this area in winter storm situations among others. I generally do cut it in half when it is way wetter and that often brings me to the consensus of the other models. Also, the earlier NAM's were the coldest by far and ended up way too cold. I mean within 48 hours, they had ATL well under 0C at 850 and 925! Horrible. Later NAM's corrected that and did well with the temperatures. However, that was only within 24 hours. OTOH, the NAM was the first to latch onto the appetizer and needs kudos for that. But the NAM is still a very unreliable model, especially out more than 24 hours. Also, it is very wet biased. The GFS was awful as it had little for either event til getting pretty close. The Euro was good overall imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I dunno folks in the east did at or above the totals it was calling for we had over 1.5" here. My memory may be off, I've looked at a lot of models lately, but I think the NAM had a lot of eastern NC approaching 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 HRRR and RAP really elevated expectations on this event. Finished with around 7" of concrete. We were probably running 5:1 or 6:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Here's the 18Z RGEM snowfall map from yesterday. I think it did pretty good overall. It's been pretty reliable this winter. If you cut out virtually all of the color from upstate SC then yes, it did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 If you cut out virtually all of the color from upstate SC then yes, it did well. Lol, that is actually why you can't trust those models. If it can't even get snow totals right AFTER the event, how the hell are we supposed to trust them BEFORE it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Lol, that is actually why you can't trust those models. If it can't even get snow totals right AFTER the event, how the hell are we supposed to trust them BEFORE it? Hence the reason for my signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The GFS did the best on qpf forecast for the upstate as the event was starting. It was the only model showing a relative minima of around .50 inches of liquid for the upstate and it verified perfectly. The RAP/HRR/NAM all had 1+ inch amounts here as the event was unfolding and busted badly, as the western upstate received .4 to .5 inches of liquid on average. I know one thing... I will never let myself get excited over RAP/NAM totals just prior to an event again. They are basically worthless in my eye's at this point. Especially the RAP which was giving the Upstate 2 inches of liquid just 12 hours out, then backing off to 1.25 inches after the event had already started. WHAT A JOKE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Here is the QPF comparison for MBY (KGSO) using the 00z runs from last night (basically as the storm was on our doorstep... precip moved in around 02z). I am just using the colored shadings as I do not have the text data in front of me at the moment. Actual total: 0.66" 12 km NAM: A bit over 1" 4 km NAM: 0.8-0.9" RAP: 1" HRRR: 0.8" 21z SREF: 1.1" RGEM: 0.6-0.7" GFS: 0.5-0.6" UKMET: 0.5" Euro: 0.8" As you can see, the RGEM was the closest. The GFS and UKMET were a little underdone. No models were really that far off, to be honest, though most were overdone by a couple tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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