southernskimmer Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Did he update his map? I think he only had us at 4-6" before while the other two stations were 6-10" or so. You think we can make a run at 10"? The SREF plumes did well with last February's storm and they do have a mean of over 10" with a large clustering in the 10-16" range, so I guess the possibility is definitely there. It seems like we're getting decent ratios, so we're not wasting QPF. It should be a fun night. I'd love to exceed 8" for the first time in 13 years. I also hope to see some 2-3"/hr rates later on. Yeah he updated. Put us right on the edge of 6+. Basically 6 and who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 There is still a lot of moisture to our south and west. We've got quite a ways to go here before this is over tonight, at least for those in the upper half of the state of NC. I like Brad and think he does a good job, but if you look at the radar in motion, that precip assoicated with the 5h wave is headed for E TN / NC mountains. I measured 1 inch a little while ago with roads covered with wet snow here north of Charlotte. It's been all snow here, but rates have been sporadic, and radar leaves a lot to be desired. My main takeaway thus far is this....in our previous winter storm (sleetfest on Feb 17), I made the point that the most reliable type of precipitation you can have (steady, non-spotchy precip on radar) comes from warm-advection / overrunning type precip. We had that in the Feb 17 storm. With today's storm, the good 850mb warm advection is focused from S GA through eastern SC, into eastern NC (image below shows that for 03z). The heavy precip we were suppose to get from GSP to CLT was more dynamically driven - strong upper level ascent. That type of precip is less reliable. Sometimes it is great, other times it is splotchy. All indications from model QPF output indicated that this dynamically driven precip would be strong...but that has not been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 When will this sucker pivot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I like Brad and think he does a good job, but if you look at the radar in motion, that precip assoicated with the 5h wave is headed for E TN / NC mountains. I measured 1 inch a little while ago with roads covered with wet snow here north of Charlotte. It's been all snow here, but rates have been sporadic, and radar leaves a lot to be desired. My main takeaway thus far is this....in our previous winter storm (sleetfest on Feb 17), I made the point that the most reliable type of precipitation you can have (steady, non-spotchy precip on radar) comes from warm-advection / overrunning type precip. We had that in the Feb 17 storm. With today's storm, the good 850mb warm advection is focused from S GA through eastern SC, into eastern NC (image below shows that for 03z). The heavy precip we were suppose to get from GSP to CLT was more dynamically driven - strong upper level ascent. That type of precip is less reliable. Sometimes it is great, other times it is splotchy. All indications from model QPF output indicated that this dynamically driven precip would be strong...but that has not been the case. im with you on those deform bands. I don't see how he sees them coming into charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Looks like the orentation s going to be more NNW or NW. Meaning this could also effect the lee side foohills area if it setsup right. I like Brad and think he does a good job, but if you look at the radar in motion, that precip assoicated with the 5h wave is headed for E TN / NC mountains. I measured 1 inch a little while ago with roads covered with wet snow here north of Charlotte. It's been all snow here, but rates have been sporadic, and radar leaves a lot to be desired. My main takeaway thus far is this....in our previous winter storm (sleetfest on Feb 17), I made the point that the most reliable type of precipitation you can have (steady, non-spotchy precip on radar) comes from warm-advection / overrunning type precip. We had that in the Feb 17 storm. With today's storm, the good 850mb warm advection is focused from S GA through eastern SC, into eastern NC (image below shows that for 03z). The heavy precip we were suppose to get from GSP to CLT was more dynamically driven - strong upper level ascent. That type of precip is less reliable. Sometimes it is great, other times it is splotchy. All indications from model QPF output indicated that this dynamically driven precip would be strong...but that has not been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Looks like the orentation s going to be more NNW or NW. Meaning this could also effect the lee side foohills area if it setsup right. Sounds Great! I mean, I have enjoyed the snow we've gotten here (Moderate but small to Medium sized flakes) but its only added up to about 1.5". Would love to see better rates come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I like Brad and think he does a good job, but if you look at the radar in motion, that precip assoicated with the 5h wave is headed for E TN / NC mountains. I measured 1 inch a little while ago with roads covered with wet snow here north of Charlotte. It's been all snow here, but rates have been sporadic, and radar leaves a lot to be desired. ... What makes you think it won't make it over the mountains? This isn't a clipper system. This is an upper level low that should pass through northern GA. I like Hickory's chances for being on the NW side of that ULL when it continues to cruise to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I really do not know, but looking at the current radar trends, that fetch is moving more NNW and could slide in the lee areas. Sounds Great! I mean, I have enjoyed the snow we've gotten here (Moderate but small to Medium sized flakes) but its only added up to about 1.5". Would love to see better rates come down. I agree Calc. But again, me not Met But in the last frames on the radar, you can start to see a pivot.. Maybe not. I got 2" down which is enough to make a killer snowman tomorrow with my boy. What makes you think it won't make it over the mountains? This isn't a clipper system. This is an upper level low that should pass through northern GA. I like Hickory's chances for being on the NW side of that ULL when it continues to cruise to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Didn't expect this.... WRAL is going big... WRAL Weather 4 mins · Our final call snow totals map. Coming from the station that didn't even put out a call map until after their 6 PM newscast last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I really do not know, but looking at the current radar trends, that fetch is moving more NNW and could slide in the lee areas. I agree Calc. But again, me not Met Got 2 inches here in Valdese just east of Morganton hopefully we get into those deform bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Atlantic should help some. Moisture transport is increasing. Side of me wants to think that the moisture will swing back to CLT and i hope it does. this would be a epic bust for many if it doesn't. That deformation band is diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Coming from the station that didn't even put out a call map until after their 6 PM newscast last night. And had 2 to 4 this morning. They always just change it ad things unfold so they can be right no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 What makes you think it won't make it over the mountains? This isn't a clipper system. This is an upper level low that should pass through northern GA. I like Hickory's chances for being on the NW side of that ULL when it continues to cruise to the east. I said NC mountains, but yeah, makes sense that some of that could rotate through the foothills....but I don't see it being like the storm last Feb...upper low was much stronger with that one and was more of a direct hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Maybe the deformation band will be enhanced by the atlantic moisture being thrown back by the developing low. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is an ocean lovin' low. Its still not ashore yet south of Tallahassee. Look at the pressure falls along the coast near the GA SC line. That is se of the ruc/nam, so maybe that's a good sign. Still hoping we can avoid that changeover again later tonight. probably a worthless venture, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 WRAL is saying Raleigh stays all snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Divine Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 They just updated the totals expected on the Winter Storm Warning for here Accumulations... 5 to 12 inches of snow along and north ofHighway 64... this includes 5 to 8 inches in The Triad... and 8to 12 inches over the central and northeast Piedmont includingthe northern portions of the Triangle area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Nothing is a worthless venture in the SE when it snows. We throw everything we got into it That is se of the ruc/nam, so maybe that's a good sign. Still hoping we can avoid that changeover again later tonight. probably a worthless venture, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 WRAL is saying Raleigh stays all snow tonight. one would like to say that would be a good thing. But honestly, i lived in raleigh area for 20+ years. They don't know their ass from a hole in the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 They just updated the totals expected on the Winter Storm Warning for here Accumulations... 5 to 12 inches of snow along and north of Highway 64... this includes 5 to 8 inches in The Triad... and 8 to 12 inches over the central and northeast Piedmont including the northern portions of the Triangle area. noaa still shows me at 5-9 inches. I'm sitting with 0 right now. Must be some hellacious deformation bands right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Maybe the deformation band will be enhanced by the atlantic moisture being thrown back by the developing low. TW Wyff just mentioned that it once the low moves further east it will begin drawing moisture off the Atlantic to intensify things and crash temps more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Wyff just mentioned that it once the low moves further east it will begin drawing moisture off the Atlantic to intensify things and crash temps more. I've lost all faith for WYFF's weather team tonight. They just showed the radar and said union county was north of the snow line. That is total BS it is rain here. ALL RAIN. It's best to watch WSPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 LOL --- RAH just cut our totals in half.... from 4-8" to 2-4" overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Brad: Totals under performing big time south thanks to a slight shift in rain snow line. North doing just fine #cltwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Big difference between the 2 stations.... WNCN Weather Wes Hohenstein 2 mins · UPDATED SNOW FORECAST 11pm: Minor adjustments to account for extra sleet to start (instead of snow) & dry pockets showing up on radar. Still heavy snow after midnight and plenty of snow on the ground by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Which is what he has talked about for a few days. Just were it would set up.. Brad: Totals under performing big time south thanks to a slight shift in rain snow line. North doing just fine #cltwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Big difference between the 2 stations.... WNCN Weather Wes Hohenstein 2 mins · UPDATED SNOW FORECAST 11pm: Minor adjustments to account for extra sleet to start (instead of snow) & dry pockets showing up on radar. Still heavy snow after midnight and plenty of snow on the ground by morning. well ive already got 1.5" here and radar is just getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE PIEDMONT AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARD TYPE...HEAVY SNOW IN THE PIEDMONT... AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AT TIMES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... THIS INCLUDES 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE TRIAD... AND 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE AREA. THE MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... NORTHWEST SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN TO BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 RAH saying north of 64 could see 2 inches per hour for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Which is what he has talked about for a few days. Just were it would set up.. He really shouldn't have made the last second shift southward, it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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