No snow for you Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 that is one big slot forming over Georgia and heading up 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NAM just showed what happens if we walk that fine R/S line here. Super bust potential here in both directions. Are you referring to our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 00Z 12K NAM snowfall map: That seems overdone on the southern edge. I thought Augusta was supposed to get all rain, but that gives it 3" of snow. It also has snow all the way down to Wilmington, which doesn't seem to be forecasted by anyone else.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORWX Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 that is one big slot forming over Georgia and heading up 85 Hopefully the precip will fill back in???? I believe it should as the low goes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 latest rah forecast has 8-10" from downtown north. southern wake from 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NAM just showed what happens if we walk that fine R/S line here. Super bust potential here in both directions. Good news is the NAM bullseye seems to have moved back south just a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 latest rah forecast has 8-10" from downtown north. southern wake from 6-8" Lol I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Im sorry to be so much of a downer, but the dry slot is insane. I dont see the NAM verifying in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 That seems overdone on the southern edge. I thought Augusta was supposed to get all rain, but that gives it 3" of snow. It also has snow all the way down to Wilmington, which doesn't seem to be forecasted by anyone else.. Perhaps the southern GA snow arises from the deformation band (of sorts) that is still causing heavy snowfall in AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm You guys in RDU should go there and look at the rap sounding. There are 3 consecutive hours of nearly .4 qpf each. The bad news is there may be some mixing but total qpf for the event is nuts for you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Im sorry to be so much of a downer, but the dry slot is insane. I dont see the NAM verifying in my area. Agreed. Terrible looking upstream. Really going to limit amounts even for those that stay all snow. Shouldn't have fallen for the last minute higher totals. I do it every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Yeah a big HP would be awesome. I wish we could have lasted as snow here for just a little longer.Dynamic cooling! Your best friend! Some mets are busting hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 So with all the stuff that happened a question regarding the deep layer warm nose FFC found via balloon launch. Did any model really pick this up to that depth? Couldn't these launches be done earlier and downstream for better forecast adjustments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Agreed. Terrible looking upstream. Really going to limit amounts even for those that stay all snow. Shouldn't have fallen for the last minute higher totals. I do it every time. hrrr says we got a few more hours, then it winds down. what a depressing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Even though radar look awful over us, rate of snow we're having is saying other wise. I wouldn't give up on western edge of storm quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 very ture. This was also something that Brad P stated in his updated video. Perhaps the southern GA snow arises from the deformation band (of sorts) that is still causing heavy snowfall in AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 FWIW, the 00z RGEM looks basically identical to the 18z run. Looks like the 00z GFS is coming in a little more NW very early, probably correcting itself towards the other modeling. Probably irrelevant at this point, anyways. Nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The snow in AL will not get too far into our area though. That is aimed at east Tenn and the NC mountains. This storm is racing through the SE. We really needed blocking to make this work in most of NC, NC and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 FWIW, the 00z RGEM looks basically identical to the 18z run. Looks like the 00z GFS is coming in a little more NW very early, probably correcting itself towards the other modeling. What are your thoughts? Think we could make it to 10-12 James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 There is still a lot of moisture to our south and west. We've got quite a ways to go here before this is over tonight, at least for those in the upper half of the state of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 26, 2015 Author Share Posted February 26, 2015 There is still a lot of moisture to our south and west. We've got quite a ways to go here before this is over tonight, at least for those in the upper half of the state of NC. Exactly. That's what will bring those mesoscale bands with embedded t-storms. Going to be a fun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 What are your thoughts? Think we could make it to 10-12 James? 6-8", with potential up to 10-12", especially out your way, IMO. Your area could mix late, though, so it's touchy. I'd like to go 8-12", but I'm a weenie and am trying to control myself. I'm no met, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Van Denton says no mixing for triad, minimal for RDU. Ready to see some heavy late night gulf bands come through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 wral final call map is out. 8-10" for nearly all of wake county with 11" for the far ne section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Didn't expect this.... WRAL is going big... WRAL Weather 4 mins · Our final call snow totals map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 6-8", with potential up to 10-12", especially out your way, IMO. Your area could mix late, though, so it's touchy. I'd like to go 8-12", but I'm a weenie and am trying to control myself. I'm no met, though. 6-8" is a good bet...although, someone is going to get quite a bit more but it's always difficult to pinpoint exactly where. It's going to be an exciting night with A LOT of precip yet to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 wral final call map is out. 8-10" for nearly all of wake county with 11" for the far ne section. Took them long enough. I think that 11 plus might be more my way, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Van Denton says no mixing for triad, minimal for RDU. Ready to see some heavy late night gulf bands come through Did he update his map? I think he only had us at 4-6" before while the other two stations were 6-10" or so. 6-8" is a good bet...although, someone is going to get quite a bit more but it's always difficult to pinpoint exactly where. It's going to be an exciting night with A LOT of precip yet to go. You think we can make a run at 10"? The SREF plumes did well with last February's storm and they do have a mean of over 10" with a large clustering in the 10-16" range, so I guess the possibility is definitely there. It seems like we're getting decent ratios, so we're not wasting QPF. It should be a fun night. I'd love to exceed 8" for the first time in 13 years. I also hope to see some 2-3"/hr rates later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwxlvr Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Lightning is popping out over the Gulf Stream off Charleston and Georgetown! Good sign, I think. http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is an ocean lovin' low. Its still not ashore yet south of Tallahassee. Look at the pressure falls along the coast near the GA SC line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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