HKY_WX Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 00z RAP bufkit shows RDU to be pretty much all snow (isothermal) the entire run except a small window b/n 3 and 4 am were we switch to sleet. If it's right, big totals could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 latest sref mean give rdu 10", clump of plumes are at 5" and another clump from 12"-15". clt down from 7.5" to 6" GSO is still at a little over 10". Interesting. There's a cluster of members in the 3-6" range, a couple at 6-8", and a bunch in the 10-16" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I feel like if you're 15 miles plus northwest of raleigh you wont change over at all. Maybe like hillsborough area over to GSO will prob be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebaney Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 So Knightdale has sleet. SLEET. S.L.E.E.T. can i post that here or am i supposed to be in another thread. Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCGIRL Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Snowing hard in Goldsboro NC !!!!! I hooe It stays as ️SNOW not rain ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 calm down, heavier rates will cool the column. we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I feel like if you're 15 miles plus northwest of raleigh you wont change over at all. Maybe like hillsborough area over to GSO will prob be all snow. I'm about 25 miles NW of Raleigh but about 10 miles E of Hillsborough. I guess this could be a long night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I think we have found the dividing line: Charlotte Currently nice cold rain in South Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 GFS seems to be verifying much better on the snow fields currently. It appears to be the only model to have shown that tongue of mid level warmth over NE ga that is hurting their totals. Path of the slp looks correct in the short term. Then, at 2am Savannah (first image) and off Hatteras sub 1k at 8am (second image). Path is more due northeast than curving up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tumbleweed Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 okay nevermind. i see some white stuff. delete me. My post i mean I'm sorry. I wish we had a 'like' button You are fine. Normally this goes to the Banter thread. Since it is snowing golf ball size flakes..they won't notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 00z NAM still plenty wet in NC from the foothills east. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Path of the slp looks correct in the short term. Then, at 2am Savannah (first image) and off Hatteras sub 1k at 8am (second image). Path is more due northeast than curving up the coast. That is about as good a snow track as you'll ever see around here. If that doesn't produce snow, I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 lol nam is insane, 996mb off hatteras, 993mb off the obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 00Z 12K NAM snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 the rates the nam gives rdu and point ne are insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Lee side plus zone ? Has to happen at some point. Thanks for posting. 00Z 12K NAM snowfall map: ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm about 25 miles NW of Raleigh but about 10 miles E of Hillsborough. I guess this could be a long night... You're in a great spot buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 That is about as good a snow track as you'll ever see around here. If that doesn't produce snow, I give up. I agree! Its a beautiful track. Would like to see the low move a little slower and deepen more as it pulls south of Hatteras. But should still be enough as modeled to get the job done. Would be nice to have a nice 1040 high sitting over NYC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 You're in a great spot buddy. I'm not sure anyone outside of the mountains is safe tonight. The rain and ice line is racing north. Maybe up into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Lee side plus zone ? Has to happen at some point. Thanks for posting. You'd think, right? We have to benefit at some point from being in the lee. 00Z 4K NAM Snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm not sure anyone outside of the mountains is safe tonight. The rain and ice line is racing north. Maybe up into VA.That's a little overkill there bud I don't see that happening at all lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I agree! Its a beautiful track. Would like to see the low move a little slower and deepen more as it pulls south of Hatteras. But should still be enough as modeled to get the job done. Would be nice to have a nice 1040 high sitting over NYC too. Yeah a big HP would be awesome. I wish we could have lasted as snow here for just a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 lol nam is insane, 996mb off hatteras, 993mb off the obx Thats a good look. Wish we had a little colder air. That 998 is just south of Cape Fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Path of the slp looks correct in the short term. Then, at 2am Savannah (first image) and off Hatteras sub 1k at 8am (second image). Path is more due northeast than curving up the coast. That low strength and location would be monster hit for everyone Hwy 17 to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAtlanta Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 From Peachtree City: Area forecast discussionNational Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia846 PM EST Wednesday Feb 25 2015Update...major changes to the forecast for this winter storm. 00z ffcsounding showed a very deep warm layer over ffc from around 915 mbto 675 mb...or about over 7000 feet thick. This was being advectednorthward ahead of the surface low that was over southern MS along theGulf Coast. 18z GFS showed the 850mb 0c degree isotherm holding fromnear Cedartown to Canton to Gainesville through 06z. Then as thesurface low pulls off to our southeast...the colder air is pulledsouthward. However as this happens the deepest moisture will beexiting from the west. At this time most of the snow has switchedover to rain or freezing rain from Carrollton to Atlanta to Athenswith snow continuing across extreme north Georgia. What is now expectedto play out is a band of rain/freezing rain will remain nearlystationary from Cedartown to Canton to Gainesville throughmidnight...then switch over to snow or snow flurries before ending.From Carrollton to Atlanta to Athens...rain will continue throughmidnight...then switch over to a rain/snow mix...then finallyflurries before ending later tonight. Precipitation will remain asrain from Franklin to Peachtree City to Madison until late tonightwhen there will be a brief switch over to rain/snow or flurries.Snow accumulations... very little...if any more additional snow isexpected from Carrollton to Atlanta to Athens. An additional 2 to 3inches of snow is possible across extreme north GeorgiaIce accumulations...up to a tenth of an inch of ice is possiblethrough midnight from Cedartown to Canton to Gainesville. A glaze to05 inch of ice is possible from northern Carroll County to northernFulton County to Athens.Black ice will be possible in all areas including from Franklin topeacthree city to Madison.The Winter Storm Warning will be cancelled from Franklin toPeachtree City to Madison. However a Special Weather Statement willbe issued for black ice for tomorrow morning due to residual wateron the roads that could freeze late tonight and early Thursdaymorning.The Winter Storm Warning will remain in effect for the remainingareas due to either snow...freezing rain...sleet...and black ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 00Z 12K NAM snowfall map: It crushes the Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCGIRL Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 U think this trend will HELP the snow for Wayne County ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Obs go in the obs thread folks, this is for overall storm tracking on the large scale, not the one defined by your back yard. If you are unhappy or want to hit the like button, may I suggest the gripe and complaing thread where liking posts has been enabled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Ray's weather map from this afternoon. I like the chances of it verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 NAM just showed what happens if we walk that fine R/S line here. Super bust potential here in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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