BIG FROSTY Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looked like 1-3" up your way, but we know this one is going to hammer Roanoke before it's all said and done. 'Tis inevitable. Ha, they have had the luck lately for sure!! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 1" QPF runs from GSP to a just south of CLT to FAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 honestly, I would take an inch of snow and call it a decent winter. Of course I'd love a lot of snow, but all I've seen so far is some flurries ( not including the snow I saw in KY). At this point, this late in the season, we have to pretty much take what we can get. Just hoping we don't get completely shut out this week. That would definitely make this a horrible, horrible winter. I don't understand this comment. We always have to take what we can get. We have no control over the weather. It's not a matter of choice or preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 1" QPF runs from GSP to a just south of CLT and RDU o O Lord have mercy... the Euro is an absolute perfect scenario for the upstate. 6 to 10 inches of concrete...It's our turn now. I'm bringing the mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 1" QPF runs from GSP to a just south of CLT to FAYThis one looks very Christmas 2010 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Where is the 850 0C line during the warmest part of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Where is the 850 0C line during the warmest part of the event say a line from ATL to FAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Temps are right on the line for atlanta and athens..could be sleet with 850s right on the line but all snow it looks like from rome to hartwell. one inch amounts from atlanta to anderson to the cape through 96 hours. wow. I think this is going to be one of those events for our areas and most of the storm where it its hard enough precip rates, its snow/sleet and if not...its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 This one looks very Christmas 2010 to me This would make me happy lol, but eventually one of these has to go all Mar 1980 on us though.....the thing that I like is the range we are in and the fact that the look is mostly the same on most the models. Just need it to lock in.......GFS will be the last to come to it as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 This one looks very Christmas 2010 to meOh lord, I hope not! I got a slushy inch !!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Here we are again about 3 days out and the models start the north trend and begin to lock on a solution. Great trends today and now the Euro is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Major QPF down this way... if it ended up snow, my God the accumulation we would end up with. I am 100% all in with today's 12z runs. Glancing, it looks like 2 inches + of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 If it was just a little colder for the Atlanta area...ugh...this would be HUGE. Of course, as always, we're worrying about temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 This would make me happy lol, but eventually one of these has to go all Mar 1980 on us though.....the thing that I like is the range we are in and the fact that the look is mostly the same on most the models. Just need it to lock in.......GFS will be the last to come to it as usual Agreed. Nice to see the globals somewhat agree on a low coming out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Major QPF down this way... if it ended up snow, my God the accumulation we would end up with. I am 100% all in with today's 12z runs. Glancing, it looks like 2 inches + of liquid. Shawn, what would be the optimal track for the I-20 corridor? Something like 100 miles off the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Here we are again about 3 days out and the models start the north trend and begin to lock on a solution. Great trends today and now the Euro is on board. like i said earlier, the exact OPPOSITE of what we saw this time last week. great 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 1) Based on the well below 0C TD's at 850 on 12Z GFS for much of the ATL-AHN corridor on Wed., I feel like there's room for the 850 0C line to be further south on the 12Z Euro than what 's being shown due to good evap cooling at 850 assuming sig precip. 2) Don't forget that the Euro 2 meter temp.'s tend to be warm biased in many cases by several degrees when steady sig. precip. falls. 3) A track of the low over the FL panhandle to SAV is near the northern limits of usual climo to allow it to be cold enough for wintry precip. to dominate ATL-AHN and vicinity. So, those folks should hope it doesn't trend any further north!! That's the concerning part of this. 4) A snowstorm on 2/25 there would fit very well with past climo for Niño, especially weaker ones and especially during very cold Feb.'s. When I get a chance, I'll try to post more details to back this idea up. Needless to say, I'm cautiously pumped about this one now that I think there is probably cold enough air at 850 due to the dryness there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looks like .55 for RDU, assuming most of that is snow, but could be some sleet in there. HKY at around .4. So 4 to 6inches for i40 per this run late wednesday night/pre dawn Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 How does it look for Northeast GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I don't have access to the paid maps but i will argue the low will be further south. I think this go around the wedging will be a little better entrenched. Shift the low more exiting off of Brunswick GA or northern Fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Where's Absolute Zero from FFC?? Love to hear what their thinking is with this complex and lengthy scenario. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Shawn, what would be the optimal track for the I-20 corridor? Something like 100 miles off the coast? You want to see the low further South for a 100% chance at snow from this. The guys in NC want it right where it is of course. Expect some of the ensembles to have absolute monsters around here. It's too early to tell, but I'd expect to at least turn into a raging sleet storm around I-20 or so... with the super heavy rates... With that said, I have no access to raw Euro data that would shed a LOT of light around this way. Edit: Also keep in mind that the GEFS individual members were very enthused at a much bigger storm right around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I don't have access to the paid maps but i will argue the low will be further south. I think this go around the wedging will be a little better entrenched. Shift the low more exiting off of Brunswick GA or northern Fl.You think this is possible? Every single threat this winter has trended north, to some degree! It has been showing even more supressed the last few days, so today's runs are a N shift so far. Most of us can't afford much more N trends, so I hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I don't have access to the paid maps but i will argue the low will be further south. I think this go around the wedging will be a little better entrenched. Shift the low more exiting off of Brunswick GA or northern Fl. I'm hoping for the more southern solution. Not that it will make too much of a difference here in KCHS but the upstate would fare better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Speaking for mountain folks, I like where Euro/NAM is right now especially with NW shift imminent on this models later this week assuming we don't lose the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 850 low track runs roughly from southeast Alabama to Myrtle Beach. If you were one to throw out the 84hr NAM, then you have to also throw out the Euro since they were in agreement, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You want to see the low further South for a 100% chance at snow from this. The guys in NC want it right where it is of course. Expect some of the ensembles to have absolute monsters around here. It's too early to tell, but I'd expect to at least turn into a raging sleet storm around I-20 or so... with the super heavy rates... With that said, I have no access to raw Euro data that would shed a LOT of light around this way. Edit: Also keep in mind that the GEFS individual members were very enthused at a much bigger storm right around us. Good to know. It does look like a tight window for us according to what free Euro maps we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You think this is possible? Every single threat this winter has trended north, to some degree! It has been showing even more supressed the last few days, so today's runs are a N shift so far. Most of us can't afford much more N trends, so I hope you're right! What i have seen for next week are established or establishing highs coming in versus the prior threats, exiting atage right. That is a big plus for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Actually my comments about sleet storm are probably off. Without any Euro raw numbers, I have no idea really what's going on around here. There is a consensus it would be either rain or snow without a threat of ZR/IP involved. I can not honestly say for the KCAE region. The only thing I can for sure say is I'd like to see it a bit colder and a bit South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Model discussion from WPC... ...CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES......OPEN WAVE EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMETFORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGEWATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A DEFINEDSHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CA COAST WHICH HAS BEENSPAWNING NUMEROUS SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THECLOSED SYSTEM SHOULD BRIEFLY STALL ACROSS INTERIOR CA/SOUTHERN NVBEFORE SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI PLOTS HAVE SHOWN A LARGER AMOUNT OFSTABILITY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FORECAST. THE PASTTHREE RUNS LOOK SIMILAR WHICH FOLLOWED THE QUICKER TREND INITIALLYNOTED. THROUGH 25/0000Z...THE 12Z CMC HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOWEREVOLUTION BEING WELL BEHIND THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AND WHILE THE 12ZGFS HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER RELATIVE TO ITS PRIOR RUN...IT STILLLOOKS TOO QUICK BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. FOR DAY 2RUNNING THROUGH 25/0000Z...THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET OFFER A REASONABLECOMPROMISE WITH THIS PATTERN WHILE THE 12Z NAM WAS REMOVED GIVENIT SEEMS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THESE SOLUTIONS. TOWARD DAY3...THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF BOTH TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE VORTICITYMAXIMA CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH. GIVEN THEY BOTH ACCOUNT FOR THISAPPARENT TREND...WILL MAINTAIN A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONSTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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