JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Soil temps, not air temps. Ahh, not sure how i missed that. Apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Pouring fatties in emerson. Whitening up in ten minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Friend in Oxford MS sent me these pics, 20mins apart. Storm means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nam looks amazing!!! Major accumulations all through NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 AT 230 PM...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE STILL SOLIDLY SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU. PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALL SORTS OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA TONIGHT. NO NEED TO GO INTO DETAILS ON THAT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BANDING WILL DEVELOP AND ALSO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SET UP. STILL EXPECT THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL BECOME SUFFICENT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR SNOW PROFILES TO PREDOMINATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIP MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THE SNOWFALL TOTALS IS NOW TO SHOW THE MAXIMUM FROM THE EASTERN UPSTATE...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WHERE 8-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WHICH BRINGS A SWATH OF HIGHER QPF INTO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT. ALSO...MESO MODELS ARE HITTING THAT AREA WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. IT ALSO SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN SOME AREAS. THE FFC MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE WARM NOSE BELOW 700 MB SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH GA...EASTWARD THROUGH ELBERT COUNTY GA...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC. THUS...SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. OF COURSE THE BIGGEST WILD CARD WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE SNOW/RAIN LINE ACROSS THE LOWER PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z THU. THU SHOLD BE DRY OTHER THAN FOR SOME SCT SW- OVER THE ESCARPMENT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. USED PRIMARLILY A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR MOST FIELDS TONIGHT TRYING TO CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING. ALSO SHADED MAX TEMPS ON THU TOWEARD THE COOLEST RAW GFS NUMBERS IN DEFERENCE TO SNOW...AND THAT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM more amped and further west; also brings in warm nose into Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nam is WET at 15! Pushes the .50 line to me and points west. Unreal how much this has trended today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are the 21z plumes for ATL out yet? It seems not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The NAM tracks the low even further inland over SC than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nam is WET at 15! Pushes the .50 line to me and points west. Unreal how much this has trended today Yeah, it's like 3"/hr rates here. I'm in. Sounds exciting. I like our position here. With the low strengthening as it makes the turn and therefore probably coming just a bit more west than modeled, we may end up with the jackpot. Agreed. Even the crazy amped NAM is all-snow here, though it's kind of cutting it close (gotta cut it close for those jackpot totals, though). Hard to believe we could be jackpotting (or close to it) after it looked like the storm was going to go wide right a few days ago. The NW trend is our friend for once... If we get some of the snowfall rates the models are advertising, I am pretty sure that it will be the heaviest I have ever seen. I'm pretty sure I've never seen 3"/hr rates and probably not even 2"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Matthew East @eastwx 1m1 minute ago Think it's time to adjust snow totals up for portions of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Couldn't ask for a better track for Raleigh-Hickory ... but for Raleigh, any mile further north than the NAM, and there become major mixing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 18z NAM looks like an I-85 crusher from GSP to RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If the short range model QPF numbers verify this will be one of the most significant snowstorms in my lifetime just due to the area of big snowfall totals! Unbelievable trends today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sounds like I am far enough north to be good. Matthew East 2 mins · As discussed in AM video, eastern CLT metro to southern RDU metro could dance the line with snow and mixing. But just NW of line, big accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM is solid snow for RDU until about 9z with 1" QPF but then it borders on rain/sleet the last few hours. Sucks, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like areas south and east of RDU airport will need to be adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The thing I love about the Nam is it is trying to make everyone here happy with some significant snowfall not where James and I only get crushed but cold rain, pack, burg everyone this is great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hour 15 on the 18z NAM. RDU: Date: 15 hour Eta valid 9Z THU 26 FEB 15Station: 35.87,-78.78Latitude: 35.87Longitude: -78.78-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E Wmb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0 1000 59SFC 994 105 0.3 -0.2 97 0.5 0.1 47 11 273.9 274.5 273.5 284.1 3.782 950 468 -1.8 -2.4 95 0.6 -2.0 51 28 275.4 275.9 273.8 284.6 3.363 900 900 0.0 -0.2 98 0.2 -0.1 66 16 281.5 282.2 278.2 293.2 4.184 850 1358 0.0 -0.1 99 0.2 -0.0 163 6 286.2 286.9 280.8 298.8 4.455 800 1843 -0.9 -1.3 97 0.4 -1.1 219 7 290.2 291.0 282.5 302.7 4.346 750 2356 -3.0 -3.6 96 0.6 -3.3 155 22 293.3 294.0 283.3 304.8 3.907 700 2904 -1.9 -2.2 98 0.3 -2.1 185 47 300.4 301.2 286.8 314.3 4.648 650 3493 -3.4 -3.6 98 0.3 -3.5 209 65 305.2 306.0 288.4 319.0 4.509 600 4123 -6.4 -6.7 98 0.3 -6.5 225 71 308.8 309.5 289.0 320.8 3.8610 550 4800 -10.1 -10.6 96 0.5 -10.3 234 76 312.1 312.6 289.3 322.0 3.1011 500 5527 -15.0 -17.2 84 2.1 -15.7 230 87 314.7 315.1 289.1 321.3 1.99 GSO Date: 15 hour Eta valid 9Z THU 26 FEB 15Station: 36.08,-79.95Latitude: 36.08Longitude: -79.95-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E Wmb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------0 1000 66SFC 977 252 -0.3 -0.9 96 0.6 -0.6 26 9 274.6 275.2 273.8 284.6 3.652 950 476 -2.1 -2.5 97 0.4 -2.3 39 18 275.1 275.6 273.6 284.2 3.343 900 903 -3.6 -4.4 94 0.8 -3.9 57 23 277.8 278.3 274.8 286.3 3.074 850 1356 -2.6 -3.1 96 0.5 -2.8 93 13 283.4 284.1 278.4 293.5 3.575 800 1838 -1.6 -2.1 96 0.5 -1.9 186 11 289.4 290.1 281.8 301.2 4.096 750 2352 -1.9 -2.5 96 0.6 -2.1 219 26 294.5 295.3 284.2 307.0 4.257 700 2900 -3.9 -4.6 95 0.7 -4.3 208 34 298.1 298.8 285.2 309.7 3.878 650 3481 -6.4 -7.7 90 1.4 -6.9 227 43 301.8 302.4 286.0 311.8 3.299 600 4105 -8.7 -10.6 86 1.9 -9.4 233 51 306.0 306.6 287.1 314.9 2.8310 550 4774 -13.5 -14.8 90 1.3 -13.9 232 61 308.0 308.4 287.1 315.1 2.2011 500 5492 -17.0 -28.5 36 11.6 -19.3 225 76 312.4 312.5 287.1 314.8 0.73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 18z NAM looks like an I-85 crusher from GSP to RIC. Interesting to note the maximum along the escarpment there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Flurries have officially begun in southern Mcdowell county. 41/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 18z NAM looks like an I-85 crusher from GSP to RIC. Notice the dry slot over Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM is solid snow for RDU until about 9z with 1" QPF but then it borders on rain/sleet the last few hours. Sucks, oh well. A foot of snow and some sleet at the end sucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 18z NAM looks like an I-85 crusher from GSP to RIC. I'm in that puts most of Burke in 7-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 18z NAM is solid snow for RDU until about 9z with 1" QPF but then it borders on rain/sleet the last few hours. Sucks, oh well. Is that because the low is at its closest point to you guys, so the WAA tries to kick it over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Oh for anyone who wants to look up their own soundings on the NAM/RAP/GFS/UK, http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 A foot of snow and some sleet at the end sucks? If it's ticks anymore NW it will spell trouble. The rain sucks, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Garrett Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm in that puts most of Burke in 7-10 inches. SPARTANBURG SEEMS TO BE IN A GOOD ZONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The biggest amount of snow I can remember seeing was the 14 inches we got during the Crusher. if the short range guidance is on to something, we could potentially see that one fall tonight if the banding is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack83 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GSP upping totals in southern Piedmont to 7-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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